Sorry NH fans, I just can't seem to get into it yet, I like 'em, back 'em, they lose, I like 'em, don't back 'em, they win. Thus far I shall allow the season to kick in before I start putting down any money, although the car at Chepstow will probably test my willpower tomorrow. All bets are 1pt win or 0.5pt E/w if adv. I have had a little play at the placepots and I will tell you how I've staked but due to the nature of placepots they are more for entertainment/interest and shall not be included in profit or strike rate stats.
YORK
200 - JESSIES SPIRIT (E/w) 4th 16/1 / PASSIONADA
JS is pretty unexposed and dropped 3lb after a big field nursery where she found a lot of trouble. Well worth an Each way play today if she gets a run, Passionada interests me as the champ turns up here purely to ride her before heading off to Wolverhampton for the evening. She was only beaten a head by a long odds on shot on debut before heading home herself next time, despite hanging in the final furlong. Hanaghan should keep her straight and she looks game enough to land an event like this.
230 - no bet but 3 pp selections
Jet Away winner- Good second last time out at big weight after long break, signs of more to come.
Dangerous Midge - blinkers back on today back hasn't shown best foot since landing Breeders Cup prize, if he finds that form he wins at a canter
Treasury Devil - Not seen for about 5 months since coming 3rd in higher class race, top yard won't have placed him here for nothing.
305 - ARABIAN SPIRIT (E/w)
Not won this year but well treated for that and showed signs of coming back to best when 4th last time out. Has solid Each way claims in what looks a very open contest.
340 - PEARL SECRET (E/w) WINNER 9/2 / LISIERE
PS is one I've put up before without him running, booking of Jamie Spencer speaks volumes of his chances and on prospective a double figure price is too big. Lisiere looked like she needed the run when a long way behind Kevin Ryan's Peashooter on debut. She probably deserves to be favourite on known form and has every chance to land the spoils. The other 2 newcomers in the race will provide interest and Byronic Hero looks to have a sniff back on firmer ground.
415 - SPES NOSTRA (E/w)
Well drawn, showed promise at the trip last time, despite slow race and finding plenty of problems, when finishing a close 4th. This looks a tougher ask but without the trouble he may have won and found himself with a few more pounds for this. Massive E/w claims in another open race.
450 - SCRUPUL (E/w) 2ND 9/1 / LINKABLE
Luca Cumani's record with 2yo's puts me off Scrupul a little but at a big price he is worth a crack. Stepped up in trip which should suit on breeding, just has to take to the racecourse at second attempt as something looked wrong on debut, Linkable is dropped in grade here after a promising debut effort.
520 - TRIP THE LIGHT (E/w) WINNER 9/1
I'll tell you the truth, I narrowed this down to 10 of 14, then just thought it's an apprentice handicap, I looked at adjusted ratings and C&D form and this one ticked the boxes so I stuck it in, in seriousness though he has each way claims at a big price.
WOLVERHAMPTON
540 - TIABLO NR / YEOMAN OF THE GUARD
Initially I had just picked Tiablo, ran on well here on debut despite being off the bridle very early, he was kept up to the job and finished a never nearer 4th, he is entitled to come on with the step on in trip and worth a play. I cannot however ignore Yeoman of the Guard, it appears that Mr Hanagan is sidestepping the entire York card to ensure he is here for this ride. There is some all weather form to be found down his bloodline but that barely goes over a 10-15% SR, has had stalls problems and that needs to be rectified here also. The 13/8 with Coral is backable but I'd imagine this will shorten dramatically in price and I'd suggest taking your money back as soon as he hits around 11/10-even money just in case.
610 - PATHFINDER (E/w)
This could be a sneaky one really, bare form suggests that he is out of his depth, but you have to look a lot closer with the 2yo's and his AW debut was very promising, never really got going in a large field race on turf hence the 0, sent back here after a decnet break and worth a little E/w play, although the number of non runners has slightly diminished my belief, I'm sticking to my guns.
640 - GLOBAL VILLAGE (Nb) WINNER 6/4
Ran on well for pressure on return to racecourse after a break, should come on for that and jockey booking is a positive as SDS will be looking for winners to compensate upcoming ban.
715 - SUPERCHARGED (NAP)
Best bet of the day for me. She is well drawn, unexposed and despite the fact that she has only won once, that success was here at Wolverhampton.
745 - I had cotton king, which is now non runner, I have put in unnamed fav on placepot, which looks most likely to be P.Hanagan's mount Lemon Drop Red.
815 - MEANWHILE (E/w)
One of only two course winners in the field, has not been disgraced by bare form turf figures and is well in at the weights now given another go on the polytrack.
915 - HILL TRIBE (E/w)
She let me down last Saturday when she was my NAP, but I am going in again, there isn't a huge amount to worry me here and I think she can bounce back from her last run to continue her improvement today.
DUNDALK
830 - MOUNT ABORA
Won here last Friday and she is taken to follow up despite the 7lb raise.
TOTAL PLACED 17PTS TOTAL RETURN 17.5PTS
PROFIT OCTOBER -115.75pts
SR TODAY = 17%
SR OCTOBER = 11%
Placepot stakes
York 24x0.5pt lines = 12pts
Wolves 2x2.5pt lines = 5pts
FOOTBALL
a little treble for tonight
ROMANIA
GERMANY
WALES
Rugby for the morning
England and Ireland to win
Eng/Fra under 37ps, Ire/Wal over 39pts
F1
Fastest Qualifier
Jensen Button has to be an E/w with Blue Sq offering a standout 14/1 with 3 places, he can be found 6/1 2 places elsewhere.
Race winner
Japan often sees one sneak in from down the field and I'd be happy backing both Mercedes cars (Rosberg/Schumacher) E/w at 100/1 3 places found at Blue Sq, BetFred and Stan James
Good luck and Happy Punting
Friday, 7 October 2011
Thursday, 6 October 2011
NFL Week 5
4 weeks have gone past, where I haven't really had the information available to me to translate into considerable tips, but now my internet is connected, my PC is back from the repair shop and I'm ready to roll.
I'll start with the Handicap markets.
Firstly my Bankers.
Detroit -5.5 home to Chicago. win
Tough one to call as Det have only played at home once and the Bears only once away, but on those matches the balance for Detroit is far greater than the 5.5pts on offer and they are my Hcap NAP for this week.
Denver +4.5 home to SanDiego lose
I actually believe Denver may win this outright so a headstart of 4.5pts is cracking value. Both of Denvers home games so far have been tight affairs decided by less than a field goal so trends suggest that even defeat should see us land this handicap.
New York Giants -9.5 home to Seattle lose
Seattle have travelled very poorly so far, suffering defeats by 16 and 24points respectively. The Giants only home game so far saw them comfortable winners versus the Rams. Therefore I think the 9.5 points is too small a headstart and would have fancied the Giants at around 14-15 points so they make up my banker treble.
2point treble
then split bankers into 3x1pt trebles all hcaps
Detroit -5.5, Indianapolis -1.5, Atlanta +5.5
Denver +4.5, Cincinatti +2.5, Arizona +2.5
New York Giants -9.5, New England -8.5, Carolina +6.5
My other favourite market is the total points market, I prefer doing overs as your bet has the potential to stay alive for longer. I will be doing a 3pt 4-fold on overs and a 1pt treble on unders.
Overs
Philadelphia @ Buffalo Over 49.5 win
New York Jets @ New England Over 48.5 win
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco Over 41 win
Kansas @ Indianapolis Over 38.5 win
Unders
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh Under 39.5
New Orleans @ Carolina Under 52
Arizona @ Minnesota Under 45.5
Finally my final 1pt to make a total of 10 staked will go on a conjective Acca with some outsiders I think could win outright.
Denver 7/4
Atlanta 11/5
Cincinatti 23/20
Carolina 5/2
Prices taken from William Hill.com as pays best acca of around 65/1.
Good luck all.
I'll start with the Handicap markets.
Firstly my Bankers.
Detroit -5.5 home to Chicago. win
Tough one to call as Det have only played at home once and the Bears only once away, but on those matches the balance for Detroit is far greater than the 5.5pts on offer and they are my Hcap NAP for this week.
Denver +4.5 home to SanDiego lose
I actually believe Denver may win this outright so a headstart of 4.5pts is cracking value. Both of Denvers home games so far have been tight affairs decided by less than a field goal so trends suggest that even defeat should see us land this handicap.
New York Giants -9.5 home to Seattle lose
Seattle have travelled very poorly so far, suffering defeats by 16 and 24points respectively. The Giants only home game so far saw them comfortable winners versus the Rams. Therefore I think the 9.5 points is too small a headstart and would have fancied the Giants at around 14-15 points so they make up my banker treble.
2point treble
then split bankers into 3x1pt trebles all hcaps
Detroit -5.5, Indianapolis -1.5, Atlanta +5.5
Denver +4.5, Cincinatti +2.5, Arizona +2.5
New York Giants -9.5, New England -8.5, Carolina +6.5
My other favourite market is the total points market, I prefer doing overs as your bet has the potential to stay alive for longer. I will be doing a 3pt 4-fold on overs and a 1pt treble on unders.
Overs
Philadelphia @ Buffalo Over 49.5 win
New York Jets @ New England Over 48.5 win
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco Over 41 win
Kansas @ Indianapolis Over 38.5 win
Unders
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh Under 39.5
New Orleans @ Carolina Under 52
Arizona @ Minnesota Under 45.5
Finally my final 1pt to make a total of 10 staked will go on a conjective Acca with some outsiders I think could win outright.
Denver 7/4
Atlanta 11/5
Cincinatti 23/20
Carolina 5/2
Prices taken from William Hill.com as pays best acca of around 65/1.
Good luck all.
Thursday 6th October - I'm liking Ayr today.
The "back to basics" worked yesterday as we recouped some lost stakes, nowhere near all of them, but some.
There are a few I fancy to have a big chance at Ayr today so I will look at them. + a couple of NH fancies, however my NH knowledge doesn't extend far past the big festivals I'm afraid. I'm keeping with the 1pt per selection. The potential winnings are less, but we tend to tick over better and the liability of loss is far diminished.
AYR
210 - JOSHUA THE FIRST
Been consistent, consistently frustrating! But he has finished in the frame on 7 of 11 starts, put in a decent run on soft ground last time, when 3rd in a competitive race. Could come up against a couple of useful sorts again today most notably the well regarded Never Perfect and Silver Blaze, who is unlucky to be a maiden after a nse 2nd last time.
240 - No bet in this for me but the winner could come from, Blue Shoes, Act your shoe size, Stormy Whatever.
310 - CHOOKIE AVON
Hopefully this will seal an early double for Dalgleish, Fanning and me! This horse loves the Soft ground and is very game in front, just got collared last time out by a game winner. Drop to 6f should be fine given underfoot conditions. Deserved favourite and can't see a lot to beat him.
340 - COOL IN THE SHADE nr
He has a 6lb penalty to overcome but should make light work of that given the nature of his win last time. The well beaten second came out and won on Tuesday. Has won gamely on Gd-Sft and given the quality of opposition the Softer ground should pose little problem. He has shown he can fight a win or scoot away. And of course another winner for the champ as he aims for back to back titles.
410 - AMAZING BLUE SKY (E/w Adv) nr
In a race where nothing can be backed to win with confidence, it pays to try and find a lively Each Way price. Ruth Carr's horses are going pretty well of late, and this one will handle Softer conditions very well. Would have to set a new career high winning mark (3lb above highest winning mark today) and has proven a bit tough to get right over the last few months, but this looks like a more suitable task today and at 14's well worth an Each Way play.
440 - No bet, most likely, Emeralds Spirit, Brockfield, Ours.
510 - MARKET PUZZLE nr
Favourite Botham was my NAP last week when he landed back to back successes, but I am taking him on here. Racheal Kneller has piloted MP to success twice over the distance on testing ground over the last six weeks. Those 2 races were Apprentice handicaps, and she takes on the pros today, I think this gelding is the best chance of taking on the favourite and should negate the 3lb rise by the fact that Rachael can take off an extra 4 against the professionals.
540 - KEYS OF CYPRUS NAP nr
Every man and his dog puts this one up in the Post this morning. It's not difficult to see why. 3 x C&D winner, 100% C&D, 60% at the course. His 2 losses here came over a longer trip in better races, incidently he finished 4th in both attempts. He seems to go well this time of year. 2 years ago he landed a couple of wins at the back end, and last year he had progressed and was competing in much better quality events than this. He has been put up 4lb for that success in a race that both the 2nd and the 9th! have come out and won next time.
My NH fancies
330 Worcester - JACKOS BOY 3rd
Been pretty inconsistent but is unexposed at this discipline on mixed chasing form. This is a very weak race and very open, jockey Harry Skelton has a profit of nearly £10 per £1 level here and this is his only ride.
245 Tramore - BELIAR 3rd
C&D winner, went well most recently over hurdles at Clonmel, gives weight away to second that day, Custodian, but should handle the ground better today.
315 Tramore - GOLAN GUY
Shrewd operator Tony Martin teams up with Ruby Walsh for an unprecedented hatrick attempt. I guess this is the equivalent of a perfect hatrick in Football, My namesake started by landing the Ulster Cesarewitch on the flat at DownRoyal, before heading to Downpatrick to land a beginner chase. Now he comes here to pick up this handicap hurdle event. Obviously all that aside, I am backing him primarily because he has my name!
Good luck all.
Total Placed 9pts Total Return 4pts
October profit(loss) -116.26
Strike Rate 8.10%
There are a few I fancy to have a big chance at Ayr today so I will look at them. + a couple of NH fancies, however my NH knowledge doesn't extend far past the big festivals I'm afraid. I'm keeping with the 1pt per selection. The potential winnings are less, but we tend to tick over better and the liability of loss is far diminished.
AYR
210 - JOSHUA THE FIRST
Been consistent, consistently frustrating! But he has finished in the frame on 7 of 11 starts, put in a decent run on soft ground last time, when 3rd in a competitive race. Could come up against a couple of useful sorts again today most notably the well regarded Never Perfect and Silver Blaze, who is unlucky to be a maiden after a nse 2nd last time.
240 - No bet in this for me but the winner could come from, Blue Shoes, Act your shoe size, Stormy Whatever.
310 - CHOOKIE AVON
Hopefully this will seal an early double for Dalgleish, Fanning and me! This horse loves the Soft ground and is very game in front, just got collared last time out by a game winner. Drop to 6f should be fine given underfoot conditions. Deserved favourite and can't see a lot to beat him.
340 - COOL IN THE SHADE nr
He has a 6lb penalty to overcome but should make light work of that given the nature of his win last time. The well beaten second came out and won on Tuesday. Has won gamely on Gd-Sft and given the quality of opposition the Softer ground should pose little problem. He has shown he can fight a win or scoot away. And of course another winner for the champ as he aims for back to back titles.
410 - AMAZING BLUE SKY (E/w Adv) nr
In a race where nothing can be backed to win with confidence, it pays to try and find a lively Each Way price. Ruth Carr's horses are going pretty well of late, and this one will handle Softer conditions very well. Would have to set a new career high winning mark (3lb above highest winning mark today) and has proven a bit tough to get right over the last few months, but this looks like a more suitable task today and at 14's well worth an Each Way play.
440 - No bet, most likely, Emeralds Spirit, Brockfield, Ours.
510 - MARKET PUZZLE nr
Favourite Botham was my NAP last week when he landed back to back successes, but I am taking him on here. Racheal Kneller has piloted MP to success twice over the distance on testing ground over the last six weeks. Those 2 races were Apprentice handicaps, and she takes on the pros today, I think this gelding is the best chance of taking on the favourite and should negate the 3lb rise by the fact that Rachael can take off an extra 4 against the professionals.
540 - KEYS OF CYPRUS NAP nr
Every man and his dog puts this one up in the Post this morning. It's not difficult to see why. 3 x C&D winner, 100% C&D, 60% at the course. His 2 losses here came over a longer trip in better races, incidently he finished 4th in both attempts. He seems to go well this time of year. 2 years ago he landed a couple of wins at the back end, and last year he had progressed and was competing in much better quality events than this. He has been put up 4lb for that success in a race that both the 2nd and the 9th! have come out and won next time.
My NH fancies
330 Worcester - JACKOS BOY 3rd
Been pretty inconsistent but is unexposed at this discipline on mixed chasing form. This is a very weak race and very open, jockey Harry Skelton has a profit of nearly £10 per £1 level here and this is his only ride.
245 Tramore - BELIAR 3rd
C&D winner, went well most recently over hurdles at Clonmel, gives weight away to second that day, Custodian, but should handle the ground better today.
315 Tramore - GOLAN GUY
Shrewd operator Tony Martin teams up with Ruby Walsh for an unprecedented hatrick attempt. I guess this is the equivalent of a perfect hatrick in Football, My namesake started by landing the Ulster Cesarewitch on the flat at DownRoyal, before heading to Downpatrick to land a beginner chase. Now he comes here to pick up this handicap hurdle event. Obviously all that aside, I am backing him primarily because he has my name!
Good luck all.
Total Placed 9pts Total Return 4pts
October profit(loss) -116.26
Strike Rate 8.10%
Tuesday, 4 October 2011
Wednesday 5th October - Back to basics
Right we are hideously paying for the bookie to have lobster dinner for a week at the moment. So I'm going back to basics. Straightforward 1pt per selection, that's it, no gimmicks. I shall do my blog housekeeping, results etc.., tonight but for now here are my 3 selections for today.
430 NOTTINGHAM - WEST END LAD 4th
505 NAVAN - TUPELO HONEY WINNER 6/1
540 KEMPTON - BEST ONE NR
Total Placed 3pts, Total Return 8pts
October : -111.26pts
SP : 9.37%
I've also had a look at the golf, heres who i shall be doing.
Madrid Masters
E. Molinari 35/1
M.Warren 75/1
Frys.com
G.Chalmers 100/1
V.Taylor 110/1
Good luck.
430 NOTTINGHAM - WEST END LAD 4th
505 NAVAN - TUPELO HONEY WINNER 6/1
540 KEMPTON - BEST ONE NR
Total Placed 3pts, Total Return 8pts
October : -111.26pts
SP : 9.37%
I've also had a look at the golf, heres who i shall be doing.
Madrid Masters
E. Molinari 35/1
M.Warren 75/1
Frys.com
G.Chalmers 100/1
V.Taylor 110/1
Good luck.
Tuesday 4th October - Today's the day
Disappointing yesterday, we won't try that again. Today I've split my 8 selections into 2 lucky 15's. I will top up with singles on each and will advise stakes as necessary.
1pt Lucky 15
300 Catterick HALF A BILLION (NAP) 10pts win
450 Southwell WATCH CHAIN 1pt E/w
500 Catterick BOGO 0.5pt E/w
520 Southwell BEECHCRAFT BARON 2pts win
0.5pt Lucky 15
320 Southwell DUNASKIN 2.5pts E/w
455 Tipperary LOCAL CELEBRITY 2pts win
510 Leicester MISTER BEN VEREEN 1pt E/w
540 Leicester MONASHEE ROCK 1pt win
Total Placed 47.5pts Total returns 0
October -116.26pts
SR 6.66%
Good luck
FOOTIE TREBLE
GILLINGHAM
OXFORD
NOTTS CTY
DARTS TREBLE
M.HYLTON
J.CAVEN
P.NICHOLSON
1pt Lucky 15
300 Catterick HALF A BILLION (NAP) 10pts win
450 Southwell WATCH CHAIN 1pt E/w
500 Catterick BOGO 0.5pt E/w
520 Southwell BEECHCRAFT BARON 2pts win
0.5pt Lucky 15
320 Southwell DUNASKIN 2.5pts E/w
455 Tipperary LOCAL CELEBRITY 2pts win
510 Leicester MISTER BEN VEREEN 1pt E/w
540 Leicester MONASHEE ROCK 1pt win
Total Placed 47.5pts Total returns 0
October -116.26pts
SR 6.66%
Good luck
FOOTIE TREBLE
GILLINGHAM
OXFORD
NOTTS CTY
DARTS TREBLE
M.HYLTON
J.CAVEN
P.NICHOLSON
Sunday, 2 October 2011
Monday 3rd October - Each Way Special
Today there is very little that tickles my fancy, and after yesterdays bout of seconditis i thought it best to back these each way. The mighty spurs proving to the trenders that North London isn't red at all generally made up for any financial damage caused.
NAP
An Each way nap? It's essentially the one I am risking the largest stake on.
FAULT 300 Windsor
Has been well raced this year to inconsistent degrees, but this his is sort of race, and he was going well this time last year, very good jockey booking, imo. He is 33% at the track and 20% over the distance. Well worth an Each way if getting a double figure price.
5pts E/w
Nb
UNCLE DERMOT 230 Windsor
He returns to scene of his only win in 13 starts but off only 2lb higher. That was a similar race to this. Has not done himself a disservice in higher grade last twice but was beaten by better horses. There are a couple of decent looking animals in here but he could quite cosily sneak into the 3 if running his race.
2.5pts E/w
1pt E/w selections
420 Warwick SHARED MOMENT nr
440 Pontefract SZABO'S DESTINY
530 Windsor MONS CALPE 3rd 25/1
I'm going to chuck them all in a 0.5pt Lucky 31 and hope for the best.
Good Luck
Total Placed 52pts
Profit October 34.25pts
Strike Rate 11.7%
NAP
An Each way nap? It's essentially the one I am risking the largest stake on.
FAULT 300 Windsor
Has been well raced this year to inconsistent degrees, but this his is sort of race, and he was going well this time last year, very good jockey booking, imo. He is 33% at the track and 20% over the distance. Well worth an Each way if getting a double figure price.
5pts E/w
Nb
UNCLE DERMOT 230 Windsor
He returns to scene of his only win in 13 starts but off only 2lb higher. That was a similar race to this. Has not done himself a disservice in higher grade last twice but was beaten by better horses. There are a couple of decent looking animals in here but he could quite cosily sneak into the 3 if running his race.
2.5pts E/w
1pt E/w selections
420 Warwick SHARED MOMENT nr
440 Pontefract SZABO'S DESTINY
530 Windsor MONS CALPE 3rd 25/1
I'm going to chuck them all in a 0.5pt Lucky 31 and hope for the best.
Good Luck
Total Placed 52pts
Profit October 34.25pts
Strike Rate 11.7%
Sunday 2nd October - It's Arc day!
After an inspiring start yesterday, we fizzled out a little. I'm pleased to say that any twitter followers who got involved in my rugby tips i posted last night have seen 2/3 go in this morning. Canada let us down by 6 points, I'd say the converted NZ try in the 80th minute may well have caused a problem there!!! Hopefully the Irsih can come through. It's currently half time with the Emerald 9-6 to the good.
It's Arc day and I'm only betting on the Abbaye and the Arc itself, there are some eyecatchers in the other races but nothing really convincing when you weigh up value.
In the Arc I'm taking 2 at each way value. (will be counted as 1pt wins for blog stat purposes.)
The first is Andre Fabre's MEANDRE, he will like the truer ground and has a terrific turn of foot, he won the Grand Prix de Paris here in July(i think, my notes aren't in front of me!) Maxime Guyon takes the ride, and connections have spent a few quid supplementing him for this race, He is overpriced at anything in double figures for me.
Secondly is TREASURE BEACH. In my opinion he is the most underated horse out there. You have to remember that only 2 horses have beaten Nathaniel on a racecourse, the other is seen as a global superstar despite the fact that TB beat him over a more suitable trip. Strange. All eyes will be on So You Think and if anything would be used as a pacemaker it would be St Nicholas in my eyes, Treasure Beach is here on merit, and will be at the front early. At prices of 28/33 out there, he is a back to lay dream and huge each way value.
The Abbaye I have to side with Robert Cowell's PROHIBIT. For me he is the most consistent sprinter this year. I like front running types Masamah and Tangerine Trees winner 14/1 but as far as I'm aware they are drawn badly? someone correct me on that if I'm wrong and I'll have a bet. I'm not 100% up on draws as yet. Margot Did, in my opinion, isn't a Group 1 horse. I know she won the Nunthorpe, but a lot of things went her way that day and this will be a lot harder. Wizz kid, in my opinion, needs mud underfoot. So that leaves Prohibit to come with his customary late run and swoop another big prize for connections.
NAP FOREVER WAINING 215 Uttoxeter 10pts unplaced (2nd of 4)
Nb GEM MILL 435 Uttoxeter 5pts 2nd
2pt Double on the pair.
Both have been very consistent in defeat and look like a win is not far off, the former is taken as Nap due to a very considerable pull in weights against a key rival.
1pt selections
KELSO
325 ITZACLICHE nr
530 GUNS AND BUTTER
HUNTINGDON
450 DARK ENERGY 2nd
UTTOXETER
510 DIDDLEY DEE 2nd
Total Placed 24pts Total returns 1pt
Tonights NFL bet
Acca on Hcaps
Seattle +4.5
Minnesota -3
Baltimore -3.5
Washington -3
It's Arc day and I'm only betting on the Abbaye and the Arc itself, there are some eyecatchers in the other races but nothing really convincing when you weigh up value.
In the Arc I'm taking 2 at each way value. (will be counted as 1pt wins for blog stat purposes.)
The first is Andre Fabre's MEANDRE, he will like the truer ground and has a terrific turn of foot, he won the Grand Prix de Paris here in July(i think, my notes aren't in front of me!) Maxime Guyon takes the ride, and connections have spent a few quid supplementing him for this race, He is overpriced at anything in double figures for me.
Secondly is TREASURE BEACH. In my opinion he is the most underated horse out there. You have to remember that only 2 horses have beaten Nathaniel on a racecourse, the other is seen as a global superstar despite the fact that TB beat him over a more suitable trip. Strange. All eyes will be on So You Think and if anything would be used as a pacemaker it would be St Nicholas in my eyes, Treasure Beach is here on merit, and will be at the front early. At prices of 28/33 out there, he is a back to lay dream and huge each way value.
The Abbaye I have to side with Robert Cowell's PROHIBIT. For me he is the most consistent sprinter this year. I like front running types Masamah and Tangerine Trees winner 14/1 but as far as I'm aware they are drawn badly? someone correct me on that if I'm wrong and I'll have a bet. I'm not 100% up on draws as yet. Margot Did, in my opinion, isn't a Group 1 horse. I know she won the Nunthorpe, but a lot of things went her way that day and this will be a lot harder. Wizz kid, in my opinion, needs mud underfoot. So that leaves Prohibit to come with his customary late run and swoop another big prize for connections.
NAP FOREVER WAINING 215 Uttoxeter 10pts unplaced (2nd of 4)
Nb GEM MILL 435 Uttoxeter 5pts 2nd
2pt Double on the pair.
Both have been very consistent in defeat and look like a win is not far off, the former is taken as Nap due to a very considerable pull in weights against a key rival.
1pt selections
KELSO
325 ITZACLICHE nr
530 GUNS AND BUTTER
HUNTINGDON
450 DARK ENERGY 2nd
UTTOXETER
510 DIDDLEY DEE 2nd
Total Placed 24pts Total returns 1pt
Tonights NFL bet
Acca on Hcaps
Seattle +4.5
Minnesota -3
Baltimore -3.5
Washington -3
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