The less said about yesterday's selection, the better. It ran like, well quite frankly like I had backed it. I have 4 taken my eye today. I'm hoping for a bit more excitement for my money. I'll pop them in time order.
LEXINGTON ABBEY 320 PONTEFRACT
He's been running well, and seems to enjoy the sit out and rattle late tactics that comes with a certain Mr Spencer sat on your back. This looks a squeak easier than recent tasks and the slightly smaller field might give the tactics a bit more of a chance.
CHEVALGRIS 350 PONTEFRACT
A bit of a shot in the dark as he has the trip to prove, but on decent to quick ground there's nothing to suggest he won't. The thing that caught my eye initially was the booking of Shane Gray, a young man who is on his way to the top. Upon further investigation I noticed he had ridden just once prior for Mr Swinbank and that resulted in a success aboard Lady Kashaan in a staying handicap just 2 weeks ago. You can get 8/1 and provided the dead eight line up each way players have a good bet on their side there, I think.
NINI OK 645 CORK
It would be easy to put up Bold Thady Quill, especially having been given a form boost by Flight Risk yesterday, but I won't. This one won readily at Dundalk back in January, the ability is in there. Wayne Lordan gets the ride, he narrowly missed out on the jockeys title a couple of seasons back so he's a solid man to have. This mare though, if you disect her form it's a lot better on good ground, which is few and far between a lot of the time in Ireland but she gets it today.
ATLANTIS CROSSING 755 WINDSOR
Easy to discount on recent form, but turf mark is very workable. He placed twice last summer in better races off higher marks so has to be respected here, even if only as an each way back, again that is hoping all 8 line up. Overnight players have already been in with a nibble and William Carson is a jockey that'll do you right if you needed a job done, so to speak.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday, 19 April 2015
Saturday, 18 April 2015
Sunday 19 April
Morning, it's been a long time since I posted, but thought I'd resurrect and see how we go. I've got one horse to share today, hopefully it runs well.
DASHWOOD 320 CURRAGH (11/1 Paddy Power)
So he's only won 4 of 25 turf starts, a modest 16%, however 12 of those starts have been over differing trips making a strike over today's 6f a much more resounding 30%, also 2 placings at the trip which incidently have come at today's venue, once off current mark of 75, and once off a squeak higher at 78. His other C&D appearance was 5th of 23 off 86, so safe to say he runs his race here. Posted an excellent effort 2 starts ago on seasonal reappearance (here, 78) a race in which the horse finishing behind him has gone on and won a listed race since. At 11/1 i think he represents solid value.
DASHWOOD 320 CURRAGH (11/1 Paddy Power)
So he's only won 4 of 25 turf starts, a modest 16%, however 12 of those starts have been over differing trips making a strike over today's 6f a much more resounding 30%, also 2 placings at the trip which incidently have come at today's venue, once off current mark of 75, and once off a squeak higher at 78. His other C&D appearance was 5th of 23 off 86, so safe to say he runs his race here. Posted an excellent effort 2 starts ago on seasonal reappearance (here, 78) a race in which the horse finishing behind him has gone on and won a listed race since. At 11/1 i think he represents solid value.
Tuesday, 13 January 2015
Wednesday 14 January
Morning all, and a belated Happy New Year I suppose. Thought I'd scribble down a few thoughts this morning. There's a cuple of interesting ones for me at sensible prices.
MAYBE PLENTY 325 NEWBURY (5/1 PaddyPower, SkyBet)
Won a similar event two starts ago at Warwick, but found out when stepping up to listed level last time. Eased off early in that race so margin of defeat grossly inflated.
ROYAL ACQUISITION 335 LINGFIELD (12/1 SkyBet)
All 3 career wins have come on the All Weather, 2 of them in Class 5 events at Lingfield. Last 2 starts were up in class 4 and albeit higher in the weights than win 3 starts ago, conditions are the same again. At to that it's always tricky to ignore sprinters from the Cowell yard and the booking of All Weathe specialist Adam Kirby jumps off the page.
SEE NO SHIPS 435 KEMPTON (13/2 William Hill)
A market mover overnight, and quite straightforward to see why. Dropped into basement grade at this track last time out and was a real eyecatcher, doing best work late on to pinch 3rd place. Upped in trip today in the same class off the same weight suggests the potential for moving up the podium.
EXTRATERRESTRIAL 510 (20/1 Most firms)
His All Weather record isn't great, but 7 of his 9 wins have been over today's trip. He's dropped back down to his last winning mark, a class 3 at Doncaster in June, there's no way this race will be as strong as that. On a going day he has to have a chance.
Footnote on a potential trading angle, Footstepsintherain has hit the front or very close to on last few starts before failing to get home.
One to watch
Shimba Hills 110 Newbury
Looks a winner in waiting after debut second behind a horse that has gone to to be rated. If he can build then he can go very close but the favourite has some serious form in the book having pushed David Pipe's Bidourey on last start, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th have all performed well since. But like I say Shimba Hills, with a solid effort today, should probably be one to jot down in your notebooks.
A little footy treble for tonight
ATH BILBAO
SOUTHAMPTON
TOTTENHAM
Pays just shy of 5/1 (24/5) on Bet365.
MAYBE PLENTY 325 NEWBURY (5/1 PaddyPower, SkyBet)
Won a similar event two starts ago at Warwick, but found out when stepping up to listed level last time. Eased off early in that race so margin of defeat grossly inflated.
ROYAL ACQUISITION 335 LINGFIELD (12/1 SkyBet)
All 3 career wins have come on the All Weather, 2 of them in Class 5 events at Lingfield. Last 2 starts were up in class 4 and albeit higher in the weights than win 3 starts ago, conditions are the same again. At to that it's always tricky to ignore sprinters from the Cowell yard and the booking of All Weathe specialist Adam Kirby jumps off the page.
SEE NO SHIPS 435 KEMPTON (13/2 William Hill)
A market mover overnight, and quite straightforward to see why. Dropped into basement grade at this track last time out and was a real eyecatcher, doing best work late on to pinch 3rd place. Upped in trip today in the same class off the same weight suggests the potential for moving up the podium.
EXTRATERRESTRIAL 510 (20/1 Most firms)
His All Weather record isn't great, but 7 of his 9 wins have been over today's trip. He's dropped back down to his last winning mark, a class 3 at Doncaster in June, there's no way this race will be as strong as that. On a going day he has to have a chance.
Footnote on a potential trading angle, Footstepsintherain has hit the front or very close to on last few starts before failing to get home.
One to watch
Shimba Hills 110 Newbury
Looks a winner in waiting after debut second behind a horse that has gone to to be rated. If he can build then he can go very close but the favourite has some serious form in the book having pushed David Pipe's Bidourey on last start, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th have all performed well since. But like I say Shimba Hills, with a solid effort today, should probably be one to jot down in your notebooks.
A little footy treble for tonight
ATH BILBAO
SOUTHAMPTON
TOTTENHAM
Pays just shy of 5/1 (24/5) on Bet365.
Monday, 17 November 2014
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Sunday, 9 November 2014
Monday 10 November
Morning all, I have 7 for you today. Another 2-2 draw this weekend too.
DIVINE PORT 115 CARLISLE
As a bumper performer he always looked like he needed something extra, whether it be in trip or simply obstacles. He gets the obstacles today, if he's in the mix at the business end he'll certainly put up a good scrap
ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR 215 KEMPTON
Was sent off favourite last time out and ran a respectable 3rd. Dropped 3lb for that and therefore given a massive chance here
ASUNCION 235 CARLISLE
put up better than average form in France, potentially has looked outpaced last twice and maybe the extra 3 furlongs today might help. Handicapper has certainly thrown her a bone if so
SHOULDAVBOUGHTGOLD 330 CARLISLE
A solid stayer and presumably, going, by results, a solid chaser. Bidding to shake off a run of seconditis he beat 3 of these last time out and no weight differentials suggest that there'll be a similar story today
INSIDE KNOWLEDGE 340 SOUTHWELL
Spatterings of decent form, the best probably his 3rd in a selling handicap 3 starts ago, a result which prompted the handicapper to add weight which has been relented for today. Price reflects consitancy, or lack thereof, rather than ability for me.
NEW IDENITY 450 KEMPTON
First 2 runs read very well, but next 2 when fancied to win not so much. Connections hoping change of surface can change fortune
SALVADO 550 KEMPTON
Handed a mark of 73 after maiden win at today's trip on AW in Ireland. Will go off 15lb lower than that today. Has positive comparable form with Bubbly Bailey and Time Medician, 2nd and 3rd in betting, so represents an Each Way chance
HAPPY PUNTING
DIVINE PORT 115 CARLISLE
As a bumper performer he always looked like he needed something extra, whether it be in trip or simply obstacles. He gets the obstacles today, if he's in the mix at the business end he'll certainly put up a good scrap
ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR 215 KEMPTON
Was sent off favourite last time out and ran a respectable 3rd. Dropped 3lb for that and therefore given a massive chance here
ASUNCION 235 CARLISLE
put up better than average form in France, potentially has looked outpaced last twice and maybe the extra 3 furlongs today might help. Handicapper has certainly thrown her a bone if so
SHOULDAVBOUGHTGOLD 330 CARLISLE
A solid stayer and presumably, going, by results, a solid chaser. Bidding to shake off a run of seconditis he beat 3 of these last time out and no weight differentials suggest that there'll be a similar story today
INSIDE KNOWLEDGE 340 SOUTHWELL
Spatterings of decent form, the best probably his 3rd in a selling handicap 3 starts ago, a result which prompted the handicapper to add weight which has been relented for today. Price reflects consitancy, or lack thereof, rather than ability for me.
NEW IDENITY 450 KEMPTON
First 2 runs read very well, but next 2 when fancied to win not so much. Connections hoping change of surface can change fortune
SALVADO 550 KEMPTON
Handed a mark of 73 after maiden win at today's trip on AW in Ireland. Will go off 15lb lower than that today. Has positive comparable form with Bubbly Bailey and Time Medician, 2nd and 3rd in betting, so represents an Each Way chance
HAPPY PUNTING
Friday, 7 November 2014
Friday 7 November
4 for today.
OUT DO 610 WOLVERHAMPTON
A decent race on a Friday at Wolverhampton. The selection has won on his only previous run on an artificial surface, and quite cosily too. A solid win in the St Wilfrid probably sets the standard here
DANSEUR DE FEU 700 DUNDALK
When the layers have it as a 2 horse race, it's often fun to look at where the bookies will most be afraid in what they deem a bad each way race. Effectively you could back more than 1 each way and end up in profit if only 1 snuck in third. Now i think this C&D winning filly represents that value. Taking the claimers 10lb into account she is a stone better off than she was when putting up a very bold effort here last week
HOWAYA HURRICANE 830 DUNDALK
This one ran her best race in some time last time out, a race which the winner and second have both ran well since, and one from behind has placed since too. The handicapper seems to have thrown her a massive bone in dropping the mark by half a stone and with one of the real emerging talents of Irish racing on her back she should be involved.
SHARJAH 900 DUNDALK
In terrific form at present and well drawn to get his own way again. The third place horse from his recent win came out and won here on Wednesday. 40% win, 80% place, over course and distance
OUT DO 610 WOLVERHAMPTON
A decent race on a Friday at Wolverhampton. The selection has won on his only previous run on an artificial surface, and quite cosily too. A solid win in the St Wilfrid probably sets the standard here
DANSEUR DE FEU 700 DUNDALK
When the layers have it as a 2 horse race, it's often fun to look at where the bookies will most be afraid in what they deem a bad each way race. Effectively you could back more than 1 each way and end up in profit if only 1 snuck in third. Now i think this C&D winning filly represents that value. Taking the claimers 10lb into account she is a stone better off than she was when putting up a very bold effort here last week
HOWAYA HURRICANE 830 DUNDALK
This one ran her best race in some time last time out, a race which the winner and second have both ran well since, and one from behind has placed since too. The handicapper seems to have thrown her a massive bone in dropping the mark by half a stone and with one of the real emerging talents of Irish racing on her back she should be involved.
SHARJAH 900 DUNDALK
In terrific form at present and well drawn to get his own way again. The third place horse from his recent win came out and won here on Wednesday. 40% win, 80% place, over course and distance
Wednesday, 5 November 2014
Thursday 6th November
Morning, 4 for today.
MAGICAL MOON 1255 THURLES
A reasonable traveller over hurdles which should help him over the bigger obstacles today. He's met a few of these before and is on favourable terms so hopefully he'll put up a big run for us.
CLAUDE CARTER 100 MUSSELBURGH
Put up a couple of decent efforts recently although most recent not so good but there was a good one in that race. Has pull in weights with a couple here, including one of the main protagonists and therefore, for me, represents a solid each way chance at least.
LARTETA 150 FAKENHAM
At present it appears this one a better hurdler than chaser, but he's been dropped to a mark at which he was very consistant over the hurdles and has certainly been given a chance by the handicapper to get involved.
SEARCHLIGHT 710 WOLVERHAMPTON
This is a massive drop in class for Searchlight, and to be fair without looking like winning he's done okay in class 2s. Before the 3 straight defeats at that level he had 2 straight wins in class 5, which again is better form than this basement grade stuff
Good Luck all, happy punting
MAGICAL MOON 1255 THURLES
A reasonable traveller over hurdles which should help him over the bigger obstacles today. He's met a few of these before and is on favourable terms so hopefully he'll put up a big run for us.
CLAUDE CARTER 100 MUSSELBURGH
Put up a couple of decent efforts recently although most recent not so good but there was a good one in that race. Has pull in weights with a couple here, including one of the main protagonists and therefore, for me, represents a solid each way chance at least.
LARTETA 150 FAKENHAM
At present it appears this one a better hurdler than chaser, but he's been dropped to a mark at which he was very consistant over the hurdles and has certainly been given a chance by the handicapper to get involved.
SEARCHLIGHT 710 WOLVERHAMPTON
This is a massive drop in class for Searchlight, and to be fair without looking like winning he's done okay in class 2s. Before the 3 straight defeats at that level he had 2 straight wins in class 5, which again is better form than this basement grade stuff
Good Luck all, happy punting
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