Saturday, 30 June 2012
Sunday 1st July -
HORSES
CHANTILLY
315 GATHERING
CURRAGH
310 TRUE VERDICT
345 NATIVE KHAN
420 MAYBE
525 MIDNIGHT SOPRANO (NAP)
SALISBURY
305 WOODEN KING
340 ANTON DOLIN
415 CRUCK REALTA
UTTOXETER
150 KINGS DESTINY
330 MUMBLES HEAD (NB)
405 FOXESBOW
510 TORNADE D'ESTRUVAL
WINDSOR
215 GOLD SHOW
245 RAZORBILL
315 JUNGLE BEAT
350 MISS DIVA
500 PURPLE AFFAIR
NEWBIE CORNER
MAMA QUILLA 215 WINDSOR
TOUR DE FRANCE
Todays stage will likely finish in a bunch, with no teams wishing to yield time to a breakaway this early. With only 1 sprint point expect a small group to get away early for the small mountain points. KOM tip Johnny Hoogerland is likely to be involved. A CAT4 finish will remove Mark Cavendish from the reckoning here and could hand initiative to a classic specialist. 4/1 on Belgian PHILIPPE GILBERT is a gift, he will be hungry for this as the finish is in Belgium, as is the start, and the rest of the stage. Expect the stronger sprinters to be near the fore, I'd probably consider Ed Boasson-Hagen as my danger for this.
FOOTBALL
I'll tell you the truth, I don't know who is going to win this, the Italians have come here with their best and most creative side since the days of Roberto Baggio. Pirlo has been Pir-less in this tournament, and bar a Zidane style moment of madness will likely win Player of the Tournament, he is cetainly the media choice anyway, but UEFA do work in funny ways so there is no guarantee. Hopefully the Spanish will respect the occasion and do away with their ridiculous 4-6-0 formation, again with the sheer arrogance of the Spanish there is no guarantee that this will happen either. I think it will have to be Italy to take the initiative to make a game of this. Otherwise Spain will just bore everybody to death with their side-to-side back-front-back game. Portugal showed them no respect, and almost got the result, I think the Italians are certainly more threating than Portugal and a goal early on will shake things up. I hope Italy win, Del Bosque gets sacked for his nonsense and we get treated to proper football form the clearly world class Spanish players in the next world cup. Besides if Italy win we, as English, can hold our heads high and say that we didn't lose a game, won our group and went out on Penalties to the European champions, strict formlines would match to given that we beat Spain back in November last year. So come on Italy and Super Mario.
I'm not going to bet but my prediction is 2-1 ITALY.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 30th June Part 2.
My computer has been hijacked so I just have to quickly tap these out on my phone. Loads of bets today. :-)
CHESTER
210 JUST PAST ANDOVER
240 GABRIAL THE HERO
345 WELL PAINTED
415 LIVING IT LARGE
525 NEW HAMPSHIRE
CURRAGH
410 JANEY MUDDLES/REDOUBTABLE/RUBINA
445 MIZANI
630 ALMANACK
700 TIDDLIWINKS
740 SPEAKING OF WHICH (E/W)
DONCASTER
640 AZZURO DI CAPRIO
715 O'GORMAN
745 SURAJ
815 LOCKANTANKS
NEWCASTLE
215 OUR JONATHAN
245 MARVELLOUS VALUE
320 GULF OF NAPLES
355 BRAE HILL
455 PARTY LINE
530 FIRE SHIP
NEWMARKET
200 PERFECT DELIGHT/SAMITAR
230 BAILEYS JUBILEE/SYLVIA PANKHURST
300 DANDINO
335 FIREBEAM
440 MEDIA HYPE
515 IHSAS
WINDSOR
330 MEZZOTINT
400 COUPE DE VILLE
435 ZERO MONEY
505 SIRVINO
NEWBIE CORNER
BYRONS DREAM 605 DONNY
INAAD 405 NEWM
THATCHMASTER 605 DONNY
TOUR DE FRANCE
Just a little bet on Tony Martin for me today.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Friday, 29 June 2012
Saturday 30th June
MENS
A quick Yankee
FERRER
DEL POTRO
CILIC
KOHLSCHREIBER
WOMENS
2 x TREBLES
WILLIAMS + KVITOVA
with either SHVEDOVA or IVANOVIC
Friday 29th June -
CHESTER
650 CHESTER ARISTOCRAT
725 KENYAN CAT (NAP)
755 MY KINGDOM
CURRAGH
600 WONDERFUL
700 URSA MAJOR
DONCASTER
335 VAN DER ART (NB)
410 PURIFICATION
550 GLENNTEN
FOLKESTONE
355 POOLE HARBOUR
MUSSELBURGH
345 DA'QUONDE
NEWMARKET
555 PATRIOTIC
705 PURPLE AFFAIR
735 CAPE SAVANNAH
805 HALLELUJAH
840 ST IGNATIUS
910 LE TOREADOR
NEWBIE CORNER
just 2 maidens i like the look of with a couple interesting ones in each
CURR 530 DAYMOOMA / MAUDLIN MAGDALEN / WHERE
NEWM 630 EL MIRAGE / IRIS BLUE
TENNIS
MEN
DJOKOVIC, FEDERER, GASQUET + ANY 1 OF
JANOWICZ or TROICKI
2 x 4fold, 1 x 5 fold + singles on J and T
WOMEN
SHARAPOVA + PENG double
KERBER was 3% off being a bet so small treble with her also
CYCLING
TOUR DE FRANCE
YELLOW JERSEY
C. EVANS win
S. SANCHEZ ew
GREEN
M. GOSS win
P. GILBERT ew
KOM
J. HOOGERLAND win
WHITE
T. VAN GARDEREN win
TOP 10 FINISH
L. LEON SANCHEZ
T. VAN GARDEREN
S. SZMYD
TO WIN A STAGE
B. FEILLU
R. HESJEDAL
Enjoy, Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Thursday 28th June
HORSES
HAMILTON
820 CERTRAL
920 JEANNIE GALLOWAY (NAP)
LEICESTER
810 MY SHARONA
NEWCASTLE
300 PRINCE OF SORRENTO (NB)
330 POKFULHAM
WARWICK
310 CARDINAL
340 POISSON D'OR
YARMOUTH
450 TUSCANIA
NEWBIE CORNER
I STAND CORRECTED 210 WARWICK
TENNIS
MENS
ACCA
CILIC, DEL POTRO, FISH, RODDICK at about 4/5
BAKER 3pts win, PAIRE 1.5pts win, 1pt Double
LADIES
TREBLE
WILLIAMS, PAVLYUCHENKOVA, SHVEDOVA around 5/4
PLISKOVA +CEPELOVA 1pt singles
GOLF
AT&T NATIONAL
MAHAN 10pt win
FURYK 5pt EW
MOLDER 2.5pt EW
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Wednesday 27th June -
BATH
740 PLACE IN MY HEART
CARLISLE
300 LOCKANTANKS
330 FAZZA
405 NORTHSIDE PRINCE
435 MISS ELLANY
505 AMENABLE
KEMPTON
750 CELTIC SIXPENCE
850 COMMUNICATOR
920 PERFECT CRACKER
NAAS
800 BETTERBETTERBETTER
SALISBURY
425 TRADE COMMISSIONER (NB)
455 LAST SHADOW (NAP)
WORCESTER
210 BATTLE GROUP
240 TROOPER CLARENCE
340 SKY CALLING
515 DANCE TEMPO
545 FAIROAK LAD
NEWBIE CORNER
KATY SPIRIT 810 BATH
COMPTON SILVER 720 KEMP
GABRIAL THE BOSS 720 KEMP
SALUTATION 720 KEMP
YARROOM 720 KEMP
ZAIN SPIRIT 720 KEMP
HAYYONA 220 SALIS
FOIE GRAS 250 SALIS
JAWINSKI 250 SALIS
NENGE MBOKO 250 SALIS
ETON RELATED 320 SALIS
RELATED 320 SALIS
ENROL 350 SALIS
USER NAME 350 SALIS
ROYAL PEAK 515 WORC
TENNIS
MEN TREBLE/TRIXIE
JANOVICZ
CHARDY
MALISSE
WANNA BUY MONEY
DJOKOVIC
FEDERER
MAHUT
TROICKI
TIPSAREVIC
WOMENS TREBLE/TRIXIE
GIORGI
STEPHENS
PENG
BUY MONEY
CLIJSTERS
HSIEH
LI
PETROVA
SHARAPOVA
Good Luck and happy punting
We are also still awaiting Annika Beck for a treble to land from yesterday. European golf tips will be posted tonight, US tomorrow morning.
Right I'm off. Tweet ya later.
Monday, 25 June 2012
Tuesday 26th June -
HORSES
NEWTON ABBOT
735 TIGER O'TOOLE
810 ENROLLER
845 TUSKAR ROCK
NEWBURY
835 SHESTHEMAN
NEWBIE CORNER
AFSARA 615 BALLINROBE
PASSING PARADE 725 NEWBURY
POMPEIA 725 NEWBURY
SUPERNOVA HEIGHTS 725 NEWBURY
TENNIS
MEN
TREBLE or TRIXIE
HAAS, DE SCHEPPER and ODESNIK (William Hill and Betfred both pay 3/1+)
ACCA
FERRER, LACKO, LOPEZ, RAONIC and RODDICK (BlueSquare and Betfred @1.75)
WOMEN
TREBLE or TRIXIE
BECK, KRIS.PLISKOVA and MEDINA GARRIGUES (Coral @ 4.1)
ACCA
BARTOLI, LUCIC, SAFAROVA, YAKIMOVA and ZHENG (Coral @ 4.9)
Other interesting Odds against Ladies
ARN, BARTY, BRATCHIKOVA and VANDEWEGHE
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday, 24 June 2012
Monday 25th June -
HORSES
WINDSOR
710 FAST FINIAN
740 RSTAURATEUR
840 CAPPIELOW PARK
NEWBIE CORNER
BORUGH BOY 345 WOLVES
OTTO NICOLAI 810 WINDS
VIVACIOUS WAY 810 WINDS
TENNIS
MEN
I'll start with my main bet, I've done a trixie(4 bets, doubles and trebles) and an extra treble.
RYAN HARRISON to beat Yen-Hsun Lu
Harrison dispatched of Lu in straight sets on his way to the Semi Final at Eastbourne. He has a superior career record against his opponent on grass and also beat him in their other meeting last year. This is effectively my NAP of the 1st round. For spread players I'd have it done in under the 40.5 games quoted, that allows you 4 sets of tennis realistically.
GILLES MULLER to beat Julien Benneteau
Benneteau leads the head to head 2-1, but interestingly Muller's 1 comes on Grass. Grass is the only surface that World number 32 Benneteau has a negative record on. Muller is a lefty, lefties do well on grass, I guess because the biggest weapon on grass is the serve and by serving to/recieving from a lefty you are having to adapt your game from the norm.
GUILLAUME RUFIN to beat Steve Darcis
I actually had Darcis down as a player to follow this year, but his season has been ravaged by injury, indeed he succumbed to a back problem against Roddick last week. He carries that injury into a tournament that requires great physical strength. Rufin is a qualifier here, for the 1st time and the 22 year old Frenchman has a steady game and could just be looking for the big break, there is no bigger stage than this.
The treble here pays just over 8/1 with Betfred.
I have some singles too
GRANOLLERS to beat Troicki
L. MAYER to beat Monaco
ROCHUS to beat Almagro
CERVANTES to beat Cipolla
NALBANDIAN to beat Tipsarevic
Plus a money buyers fivefold
BEMELMANS to beat Berlocq
BERDYCH to beat Gulbis
FEDERER to beat Ramos
MAHUT to beat Lorenzi
YOUZHNY to beat Young
Pays nearly even money with Victor
LADIES
Singles on
RAZZANO to beat Hsieh
FORETZ-GACON to beat Niculescu
KAROLINA PLISKOVA to beat Stephens
JANKOVIC to beat Clijsters
GIORGI to beat Pennetta
And a money buyers acca
MAKAROVA to beat Brianti
WATSON to beat Benesova
HANTUCHOVA to beat Hampton
OUDIN to beat Babos
DOI to beat Rus
Pays 11/4 with William Hill
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wimbledon
The greatest tennis tournament of the year kicks off tomorrow and I thought id fill you in with my take on each bit of the draw, some key matches, who I think will go well, some tasty outsiders for trading and how the brits will do. Actual match tips will be on the daily blog.
I'll start with the men.
Quarter 1
This quarter contains world number 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic. I honestly cannot see any issue for Nole finding himself in the semi finals. There are one or two 1st round matches in this quarter that I'll be having a pop at. That's another matter. A couple of players could have elongated lives in this quarter. Rufin, Janowicz and Petzschner. 15 seed Juan Monaco could well be the big casualty of the 1st round having never won a match on grass in his career.
Quarter 2
Roger Federer dominant here for so long has been missing from the semi finals the last 2 years. I can't see him having such problems this time round. He won't meet a decent grass player until the quarters, his quarter final opponent may well be whoever gets out of the Isner, Mahut, Andreev, Seppi quartet. Wildcard Zemlja might be one to watch in this quarter. He plays Britain's Goodall in the 1st round then potentially a string of players who may prefer orange stuff underfoot. With some good tennis and good fortune he could meet Roger in round 4.
Quarter 3
It's interesting with the "big4" strangelhold in men's tennis that someone from outside the top table has made the semis every year for a long time now. This year I'm going to take on Andy Murray. This certainly looks the most exciting quarter to negotiate. I think personally it will be Ferrer or Cilic who profit from Murrays defeat. One terrific potential matchup is in round 2 where up and coming Milos Raonic should meet American grass player Sam Querrey. Murray will face Davydenko who will give him a game, he should negotiate that but a monster awaits in round 2, Karlovic. This guy is about 7 foot tall a wallops his serves back. Murray will have to be on top form here. Round 3 is okay, but Cilic, Querrey or Raonic in the 4th will be hugely tricky. Qualifier Kuznetsov could sneak his way to a match with Del Potro in the third.
Quarter 4
Nadal v Tsonga
Lets face it that's the bottom line for this quarter. 1 fun game in round 1 will be the one involving the number 22 seed, if they put it on too high number court they could be rushing about to find enough o's for the scoreboard. :-) 1 or 2 seeds could come unstuck early in this section.
Each way bets on Cilic and Ferrer both at 150/1 wouldn't be futile in my opinion.
Women
1st quarter
Maria, Maria, Maria. She is an incredible specimen of gods work. And she can hit a tennis ball too. She shouldn't face too much bother getting to the quarter final, although pocket rocket Pironkova could give her a game in round 2. The battle to play Maria in the quarters is very open. On paper you'd fancy Kim Clijsters but she may well be carrying an injury into the tournament. Zvonareva, Jankovic, Makarova and Kerber are all very good, watch out for Mathilde Johansson she could ruffle some feathers.
Quarter 2
Britains Heather Watson is in this quarter and it's a particularly open one. She won't win it mind. She may well negotiate Benesova but the beautiful Daniella Hantuchova awaits. Nadia Petrova may well have the most talent on the surface in the top half of this block but she will have to negotiate Melanie Oudin, who is in terrific form, in the second round. Another brit in this quarter is Naomi Broady, I can't see her doing much I'm afraid. Na Li is the other big hope for me in this quarter, she won't face much resistance until the quarter final itself.
3rd Quarter
The All England club appears to have handed a hall pass to Serena Williams. I wouldn't fancy anyone before the quarters to give her a game. In the bottom of the quarter we have Kvitova. The defending champion. Her tennis has not hit those heights since and could well be vulnerable. If she makes the third round her opponent should be the dangerous Pavlyuchenkova. Brits Laura Robson and Elena Baltacha are in this section. Laura has a very tough tie in Schiavone, Baltacha has a pretty close looking 1st round match with Knapp but then would find Kvitova in the 2nd. Vandeweghe is a player who may spring an upset or two, and one to watch for the future is 18 year old German Annika Beck.
Quarter 4
Another open quarter. We have former world number 1s Wozniacki, Ivanovic and Azarenka. The latter 2 could meet in round 4 if they both play their game. However I think Paszek will give Wozniacki a real test in the first round. We have a 16 year old Australian girl in this section Barty(I forget her first name) she could be another for the future.
The women's looks much like a Sharapova v S.Williams final as the betting suggests. But a bet at 80/1 on Ana Ivanovic might have some legs.
More money will be made on matches, backing and laying than the outrights in truth. But I wouldn't put anyone off a Djokovic/Sharapova double.
Saturday, 23 June 2012
Sunday 24th June -
HEREFORD
220 BATTLECAT
350 BLOWING A HOOLIE
420 STONETHROWER
450 XENOPHON
520 DUBAWI PHANTOM
PONTEFRACT
310 HEDDWYN
410 VELOCE
NEWBIE CORNER
Newbie Corner continued the stong run of form with a winner, some big price places and some eyeecatchers yesterday.
BONDESIRE 210 PONTE
VIDA ETERNA 210 PONTE
OUT OF THE GAME 245 GOWRAN
MIRACLE MILE 315 GOWRAN
CRYSTAL MONARCH 440 PONTE
Good Luck
FOOTBALL
ENGLAND 2 ITALY 1 - GERRARD
I do win, Score, Scorer and Scorecast.
F1 - EUROPEAN GRAND PRIX
I think the front 2 will be the front 2 at the flag, I've bet behind them
ROSBERG - PODIUM FINISH 7/2
PEREZ - POINTS FINISH 6/4
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Friday, 22 June 2012
Saturday 23rd June - It's here people, Black Caviar Day
ROYAL ASCOT
230 JALAA / LOVELY PASS
305 AIKEN / DUNADEN
345 (w/o BC) KRYPTON FACTOR / PASTORAL PLAYER
425 MAAREK / MORACHE MUSIC
500 CAMBORNE / HAMMERFEST / LICENSE TO TILL
535 DAWN TWISTER / SIMENON / ZUIDERZEE
AYR
155 HAZELRIGG
225 MY GIRL ANNA
255 BACCARAT
330 BOLLIN GRETA
440 SHOW FLOWER
515 CHARPOY
NEWMARKET
205 PERIPHERY (NAP)
240 CLOSE TO THE EDGE
310 LOVE YOUR LOOKS
340 ANNIE BEACH
REDCAR
320 MUJAADEL
355 ELECTRIC QATAR
HAYDOCK
750 LADY LOCH
DOWNROYAL
420 LIVIA GALILEI
NEWBIE CORNER
NAVAJO NIGHTS 215 RED
SMOKER 245 D/R
ELNADANCER 405 AYR
ROYAL CHALLIS 415 N/M
TOP JOKER 415 N/M
ASIA MINOR 450 N/M
AFRAAH 525 N/M
FIDGET 650 HAY
KISS THE DEVIL 820 HAY
LILISSA 820 HAY
VESPASIA 820 HAY
FOOTBALL
FRANCE 2 SPAIN 1 - RIBERY
I haven't cracked, hopefully France are astute enough to realise that Spain are beatable, and clinical enough to take their chances.
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Friday 22nd June -
ROYAL ASCOT
230 NEWFANGLED / TASSEL
305 NOBLE MISSION
345 ELUSIVE KATE
425 GATEWOOD
500 MINIMISE RISK
535 HAAMAAT / NOBLE CITIZEN / TARIQ TOO
AYR
745 FREQUENCY
850 ROKER PARK
DOWNROYAL
900 PIQUE SOUS
GOODWOOD
615 TAKE TWO
755 COLLOQUIAL
825 DELFT / FREE VERSE (race is between these 2, if Delft carries AW progression onto turf then he wins, other FV wins, Dutch)
MARKET RASEN
255 GRAND GOLD (NAP)
520 WINTER ALCHEMY
NEWMARKET
625 THIRD HALF
805 MR RED CLUBS
Good Luck
NEWBIE CORNER
DANCING PADDY 710 AYR
MELLOW JAZZ 710 AYR
EBAZZIYR 900 D/ROYAL
POLLYWOLLYDOODLE 900 D/ROYAL
SOLDIERS SONG 900 D/ROYAL
INDIAN CHARMER 605 LIMERICK
MOY DIAMOND 605 LIMERICK
MONT BLANC 735 LIMERICK
BENEFIT CUT 555 MARKET RASEN
SIGN PRO 555 MARKET RASEN
GRIZEL 700 NEWMARKET
SHARJAH 700 NEWMARKET
ZAIN PRINCESS 700 NEWMARKET
AWAKE MY SOUL 840 NEWMARKET
PROOFREADER 840 NEWMARKET
FOOTBALL
GERMANY 4 GREECE 0 - MULLER
Thursday 21st June -
ROYAL ASCOT
230 CAY VERDE
305 PRINCESS HIGHWAY
345 FAME AND GLORY
425 LUCKY HENRY
500 STARBOARD
535 ANOMALY
RIPON
400 COLOUR GUARD
LEOPARDSTOWN
730 AKEED WAFI
FFOS LAS
745 WELLFORTH
820 WEST WITH THE WIND
FOOTBALL
I think the Czech's will get found out here, how they won their group is beyond me, they were lucky against Greece and Poland never really had a go. Ronaldo was at his best against the Dutch in Portugal's pivotal game and this will be easy pickings for him. The pace of the Portugese will have the Czech's on the early flight tomorrow.
PORTUGAL 3 CZECH REPUBLIC 0 - RONALDO (but it could be even worse than that.)
TENNIS
Just one game on my radar today
M.MATOSEVIC to win his match.
GOLF
No bets in Europe this week but at the TRAVELLERS championship
BUBBA WATSON ably captains my squad with
P. REED
P. CANTLAY
H. ENGLISH
C. TRINGALE +
J. DRISCOLL
Hoping to put on a good show.
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Royal Ascot Day 3 + 4 betting survival guide
230 NORFOLK STAKES
So Day 4 begins with a 5f 2yo dash. Although fortunately we've only the 12 to pick apart. The Negative trends are as follows, horses beaten last time out, and horses that have tried a longer trip. I'm left with 4, AHERN, CAY VERDE, JUBILEE BRIG and RECKLESS ABANDON, given that CV last two conquests were Dylanbaru and Hototo who finished 3rd and 1st in the Windsor Castle, I'd say he has the form in the book. Favourites have a good record in this race.
305 RIBBLESDALE STAKES
An open Group 2 event for fillies over a mile and half. This isn't generally much of a trends race, but it pays to side with late bloomers, fillies that competed black type races as 2yo tend to struggle. That has only narrowed me down to 9! Although 1 in by default i guess is the rank outsider CHELLA THRILLER, so we'll wipe that one off the board to leave 8. Over half of the winners of this have won at Group or Listed level. So wiping out the ones that haven't, we are down to 5. In no particular order we have Oaks contestors THE FUGUE, VOW and KAILANI, the Queens MOMENTARY, who put away Oaks runner up Shirocco Start on her last star, and Street Cry filly PRINCESS HIGHWAY, impressive winner of the Blue Wind stakes, a group 3, in Ireland. I'm going to throw my neck out and say the Group winners have it so between THE FUGUE and PRINCESS HIGHWAY, but wouldn't be shocked if the winner came elsewhere.
345 GOLD CUP
This is an absolute monster of a renewal, it truly has me excited. I can see 4 horses, just by looking at the card, who I would fully accept as a worthy winner without even any study. Lets see if they fulfil the trends ;-)
In 20 years, only 2 horses aged over 6 have won this, Drum Tap and the peerless Yeats, so that's a starting point, and a win this season is a positive, although that wipes 1 of mine out, I'm going to keep it in because that's how I roll! GULF OF NAPLES is still hanging in but I think this would ask a lot more from him than we have seen previously. If we look at the best Racing Post Ratings achieved we can see how close it is. FAME AND GLORY 121(This race last year 20f), OPINION POLL 120(Lonsdale Cup last year 16f), COLOUR VISION 122(Sagaro Stakes 16f), SADDLERS ROCK 122(Doncaster Cup 18f) Those races incidently are Group 1,2,3,2. So do you go with value or experience over trip, class. It cetainly is an intriguing renewal.
425 BRITANNIA STAKES
I'm hoping to do a bit better here than in the Hunt cup yesterday, although I say Cai Shen would have been much closer with some luck in running. Anyway. Only 1 of the last 10 runners have carried more than 8-13, there's your starting point. Also last time out winners have struggled, as have horses beaten over 5 lengths last time out. And horses dropping in trip from 1m1+. I'm left with 3! MISSISIPPI, LUCKY HENRY and DEMOCRETES. I'd favour the first 2 as the latter is stepping up from 6f-8f, based on the record of those drawn in the extremes, top 6, bottom 6 i'm going to use override to pull back William Haggas' progressive FAST OR FREE as well. So by all means go in 4 handed, I will.
500 TERCENTENARY STAKES
This is a group 3 for 3yo over a mile and a quarter, this is generally made up of progressive sorts, so we need to be looking for those contesting Group races, any unplaced lto outside Group company can be struck off. I have it narrowed to 6, I'm going to give you 3 of them. STARBOARD, he is certainly progressing, each run to date more impressive than the last. and very game in the finish last time. MUKHADRAM, this one has contested 2 very hot maidens. Winning the most recent pretty cosily. 2 in behind that day have gone on to win easily themselves and this race was pointed out as the target straightaway. The third one is more an each way shot based on the sheer overjerk of his price CAVALEIRO is not a 33/1 shot, he placed in a Group 3 Derby trial, the winner of which went on to finish second in the Derby, Cavaleiro himself was never really involved in the Derby and Hayley just bought him and herself home nicely. In reality he was 3 lengths off gaining a progressive mark for his Derby run and was probably very achievable if they had wanted to really shove the horse. A better run again today could have him right in the mix.
535 KING GEORGE V HANDINCAP
Won last year by Micheal Owen's Brown Panther. Only 1 winner has come into this from 35 days or more off the track, also horses outside the top 3 last time out have struggled to fire. The market will generally get this right or near to right, although Richard Fahey's Cosmic Sun broke the mould at 66/1 in 2009. Less exposed horses have done well with 8 from the last 10 winners coming here with 5 or less career runs. I'm left with 4. ANOMALY, PRUSSIAN, GHOST PROTOCOL and HANDSOME MAN. While the other 3 have been pretty hot and cold, ANOMALY has generally improved. I like.
FRIDAY
230 ALBANY STAKES
Only been going 10 years, but has produced some pretty decent winners, last years winner went on to land the Irish 1000 guineas. Much harder race to narrow down as positive trends outweigh the negative, in short horses do well if this is second start after a maiden win, Horses coming from Sandown have done well, and Mick Channon has won the race 3 times. Obviously then the starting point is Mick Channon's SANDREAMER , her Newmarket win has worked out nicely with the second and fourth both winning next time out. We have also Peter Chapple-Hyams AGENT ALLISON who won her Pontefract maiden hugely impressively. Another impressive demolition job earlier this month was handed out at Newmarket by the Gosden filly NEWFANGLED. I'd say those 3 would be my favourites, but plenty dangers.
305 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
A group 2 for the 3yo boys over a mile and half. This race historically certainly produces one to follow, looking down the whos-who, Saddlers Hall, Papal Bull, Mutafaweq, Campanologist, Monterosso, and last year Nathaniel. I'd suggest keeping the right side of the winner here. Horses without a win this season haven't done well. The best horse in the field is ASTROLOGY, it's interesting to know the tactics employed on Derby day, did he want to try to win from the front, or just blow the finish out of the others in the hope he got home, Initiator has to step up markedly to take this, huge ask for him. NOBLE MISSION is improving, I'd say arguably with Tom Quealley back on and the longer trip he has the beating now of Thought Worthy. Shantaram has serious character flaws, and Thomas Chipendale is slowly getting to his level, will get there by the end of the year. So for me it's between the O'Brien charge, and the prodigal little brother.
345 CORONATION STAKES
For this it pays to find a classic runner with black type form as a 2 year old. Another race that the punters typically get right. Well I hope they are better than me, I have it down to 9!!! well 8, i've taken Russeliana out, I think the Cherry Hinton figures are false, and that in truth that was a poor race. Ascot ourse form is pretty much a positive so SAMITAR and MAYBE both winners here have to be in the book. LAUGH OUT LOUD is still getting better all the time. ELUSIVE KATE, arguably the best 2yo filly at the back end of last year, potentially she went over the top at the breeders cup, but has to be in with a chance if she maintains that standard when fresh. Then you still have 1000 Guineas 1-2 HOMECOMING QUEEN and STARSCOPE, French Raider BUGIE D'AMOUR, who isn't coming over for a cup of tea and to see the queen, and Buick's chosen ride FALLEN FOR YOU. Good Luck with this one!
425 WOLFERTON HANDICAP STAKES
Horses having more than 2 runs this year and those unplaced last time out struggle in this. I have 4, RETRIEVE, MIJHAAR, CON ARTIST and the one that could potentially progress past the lot of them GATEWOOD. All of these have recieved RPR's in the 100's I just think that GATEWOOD is on the upgrade where the other 3 have reached their level. We'll have to see what the betting says on the day I reckon.
500 QUEENS VASE
A 2 mile group 3 for 3 year olds. The breeding is pivotal, if the Sire Index is less than 10f you have no chance. So those by Acclamation, Singspiel and Avonbridge may as well stay home. Horses that have remained unraced until 3yo season have done better than those that raced as 2yo. MINIMISE RISK would be my favourite here, but don't write off ED DE GAS.
535 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES
Only the 32 runners over 7 furlongs here. Nothing to worry about!!! I can narrow to 17 by removing horses that haven't acted on either Ground, Distance or Course, by that I'm going by 3 or more runs without a win. Generally we need to look at extreme drawn horses, high numbers or low numbers, for 32 runners id say just wipe out anything between 10-20. I have 11 left. So we need to look at the positives, 7f specialists and Ascot course form are pretty solid yardsticks. ADVANCED, CASTLES IN THE AIR and NOBLE CITIZEN all have Course and Distance wins. DUCAL will have to be respected if he gets in, Amy Weavers TARIQ TOO is certainly proving himself game for the fight, as is Ruth Carr's IMPERIAL DJAY. SPECTACLE DE MARS, RAKAAN and HAAMAAT are the others i still have uncrossed.
Good Luck in whatever you choose, I only hope I can be of help.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Wednesday 20th June -
And the football, Well done England, winning the group has pretty much pissed up my forecast of the rest of the competition but we can't complain really can we, although it has seriously hampered our chances of making the final in my opinion, as after beating Italy on Sunday, we will face the Germans in the semi final!
Right here's my tips.
ROYAL ASCOT
230 ALJAMAAHEER
305 CLINICAL
345 PLANTEUR
425 CAI SHEN
500 GRAPHIC GUEST
535 FALLS OF LORA
WORCESTER
320 O'CALLAGHAN STRAND
RIPON
820 PERSONAL TOUCH (NAP)
NEWBIE CORNER
LIGHT SHINE 640 KEMP
DISCERNABLE 810 KEMP
DIVA CAVALLINA 810 KEMP
JATHABAH 810 KEMP
NARDIN 810 KEMP
SEREN DEVIOUS 810 KEMP
No footy today.
So I'll give you a tennis double, try out
ROCHUS to beat Sijsling in Hertenbosch +
SUGITA to beat Russell at Wimbledon Qual
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Royal Ascot Day 2 - Wednesday
An often tricky little Group 3 to negotiate, for 3yo over 7 furlongs, it's one of the bigger races for horses that are too slow for sprints but can't quite get a mile. The first pointer is that a good run in the King Charles is often a decent starting point. Obviously that brings in Roger Varian's ALJAMAAHEER, I'd worry for his chances if it got softer, but no rain between now and then and he'll likely be bang in the mix, with regards to experience, it's quite fractious with Group winners struggling under the penalty but Listed winners doing well, and one that jumps off the page, especially at Paddy Power's current quote of 20/1 is the Hannon/Hughes offering PRODUCER, The final indicator appears to be a push in the direction of Guineas runners, and with the 2nd and 3rd in the Irish 1000 and 2000 Guineas respectively ISHVANA and REPLY lining up, this should be a competitive renewal. SWISS SPIRIT is another currently in good heart, and Mickael Barzalona is reunited after giving him a peach of a ride last time out.
305 WINDSOR FOREST STAKES
Negatives = Never won at Group Level, Carrying a Group 1 penalty, and Godolphin? That's what I'm given from the ATR microsite, if you take them out along with prolific Ascot loser CHACHAMAIDEE and 0-4 for the trip BAREFOOT LADY it leaves you just 3 horses, BEATRICE AURORE, CLINICAL and JOVIALITY. Apparently one of the best form races is Epsom's Princess Elizabeth Stakes, which if you check was headed by CLINICAL from JOVIALITY.
345 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES
This race is quite easily trimmed down really, actual form in the book looks a must, coming into the race with an unplaced effort last time out is pretty much a no no, and runners who have never won a Group 1 previously have struggled, I have it down to 2, the odds on favourite SO YOU THINK, and the 9/1 shot who BEAT him in the World Cup over in Dubai PLANTEUR. I think my mind is pretty much made up where my money is going, and if you can't see the value then you'll have to wait until tomorrow. :-) If I were to have an each way bet then it would go on Godolphin's CITY STYLE, Ran competively in Dubai and is grossly overpriced.
425 ROYAL HUNT CUP
This is THE betting event of the day, the Heritage Handicap. Favourites have struggled, and the rank outsiders have also failed, horses aged 6 or older don't win, only 1 from 83 runners! and horses stepping down from Group or Listed company likewise just 1 winner from 54. Only 2 winners have come from the top 20% of the weight and no claiming jockey has ever won. Got all that? If so it's time to narrow down. Extreme High or Low draws go well, and I'm comfortable with a hand of 4, I've overidden a little and in no particular order I'll throw in MAN OF ACTION, EDINBURGH NIGHT, CAPTAIN BERTIE and CAI SHEN.
500 QUEEN MARY STAKES
A 27 runner 5f for 2yo fillies, sounds like fun? Well it's not as easy as it looks. Haha. Not recording a victory last time out is pretty much a no no, that cuts the field in half to 13, once or never raced fillies tend to struggle, so we're now down to 8. We can wipe out Madam Mojito with a breeding statistic relating to Sire index, I'll not bore you with that, essentially this race should prove too quick. Unbeaten fillies have done well and we should, if you've been listening, only have one of them left, JADANNA. The Marygate stakes at York is one of the better clues, we have the winner of that here, CIELING KITTY, Mick Channon and Richard Hannon have done well in this race, they saddle GRAPHIC GUEST and MISS DIVA respectively, slap between GG and MD is Bill Turner's progressive LADY PHILL, that one has to be in the reckoning, then we are just left with ALL FUR COAT and SHARAARAH, the latter being the weakest due to dropping in trip. if I were to throw 2 early darts at the paper I'd hope they landed in CIELING KITTY for the low numbers and GRAPHIC GUEST for the high ones, but we've 24 hours to go away and think about it.
535 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
The negative trends for this are horses rated below 90 and horses without a win this season. That leaves me with 4!!! One of which I was hoping would be in there. FALLS OF LORA, will be my pick. But we'll see if the positives point towards the others. Last time out winners do well which picks out ELECTRELANE of the 4, the winner generally comes from the top 6 in the market, no betting as yet so we will have to see, but I wouldn't discount FOL as is likely to be the Godolphin White Cap and set to be a bigger price than stablemate Pimpernel, who she dispatched comfortably in Dubai. Horses who waited until 3yo season to shake their maiden tag have done well, that points to Irish Raider DUNTLE, who ran well in a decent classic trial last time out. Finally the Nell Gwyn is a decent warmer for this and the winner ESENTEPE has to be respected, so there you have it, the 4 left in after the negatives, all have a positive to carry. To pays you money and takes your choice people.
Obviously this isn't failproof, and there are always exceptions to prove a rule, but hopefully again the winners will be on this blog and you can all make some moneys, my tips for Day 1 should be below this blog post, with my reasonings below that, and my tips for Wednesday will be up first thing.
ENJOY.
Monday, 18 June 2012
Tuesday 19th June -
ROYAL ASCOT
230 FRANKEL
305 ORTENSIA
345 POWER (NAP)
425 LINES OF BATTLE
500 COSIMO DE MEDICI
535 LYRIC ACE
THIRSK
215 LADY POPPY
325 MADAM MACIE
615 GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
NEWTON ABBOT
810 JOLLY ROGER
FOOTBALL
We got the Spain score right, yay. Although I was devastated for Croatia, I think they were unlucky, in what will likely be their last major tournament together (new manager and have Belgium in WC Qualifying)
Tonight I'm going with
FRANCE 2 SWEDEN 0 - RIBERY
ENGLAND 3 UKRAINE 1 - ROONEY
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday
230 QUEEN ANNE STAKES
FRANKEL will be only the second winning favourite of this race. The big guns will be out looking for the place money, EXCELEBRATION looks likely to come second again, but then there should be some value for third place. Plenty of Group winners in behind, I'd suggest maybe Godolphin's HELMET who was a group1 winner in Australia. But mostly just sit back and enjoy FRANKEL, he is an animal to be proud of.
305 KING'S STAND STAKES
The Market hasn't been far off recently in this race, despite it being such a large betting event. Given the record of Australian runners in the race, ORTENSIA has to make huge appeal, and if you want a huge price chance of a place, drawn right next to him is STEPPER POINT, who on last start finished second to WIZZ KID in Group 2 company in France. SP is 50/1, WK is 6/1, Can you spot the value? TANGERINE TREES is another big price, a Group 1 winner at the distance and drawn next door to one of the big favourites, BATED BREATH. I can't write off SOLE POWER, but all my other fancies are drawn the other side, although he could get a lead off front running MASAMAH. I'll make my pick tomorrow, but it's likely to be ORTENSIA.
345 ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES
The favourite has won the last 4 renewals of this, an Irish Guineas run has proven a good build up, and Aidan O'Brien has a great record in the race. All points to POWER. He is a favourite of mine, I was disappointed by his Newmarket run but he paid me back by winning the Irish Guineas. French Guineas winner LUCAYAN is an interesting entry, also i'm intrigued that William Buick chooses tor ride THE NILE over more fancied stablemate FENCING. But hopefully I'll e singing along to Snap tomorrow.
425 COVENTRY STAKES
The Last 10 winners all won last time out, that wipes out about half of a tricky looking field. One interesting stat though is that no horse has won this with a run within 3 weeks prior, that actually wipes out the favourite DAWN APPROACH, but anyone worth their salt knows that if Jim Bolger send's one over, he thinks it has a chance. The Hannon first string SIR PRANCELOT has also had a run within the last 3 weeks. ENGLISHMAN for the Hill's team and LINES OF BATTLE for Aidan O'Brien both have solid form from their maiden wins. But I think DAWN APPROACH should be good enough. He's won 3 races pretty comfortably, if not him then LINES OF BATTLE for me. LOB form looks better than stablemate CRISTOFORO COLUMBO and Ryan Moore certainly knows where the winning line is, incidently he rode Power to win this last year. An outside chance could be Kevin Ryan's INDIAN JADE, unbeaten in 2, and upset a very hot fancy last time out.
500 ASCOT STAKES HANDICAP
This will be one I look at more tomorrow, just glancing my eyes over I like COSIMO DE MEDICI, It's generally profitable to follow Hughie Morrison at Royal Ascot, also the elephant AL KHAWANEEJ, this horse is huge, if he turns out with the ability to jump a fence he'll probably be pretty good.
535 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES
A very tough race to call, another that I'll be looking at in more appeal later and making my final bet on the day. I can't really see one that jumps off the page at me, 1 or 2 that should get black-type this year perhaps. 3 that I quite like are drawn together in the high numbers, I think that might be the wrong side, I'm not 100% sure, but they are DYLANBARU, HOTOTO and TOMMY'S SECRET, in smaller numbers LYRIC ACE, BUNGLE IN THE JUNGLE and ALHEBAYEB. Final decision to be made tomorrow.
Day 2 will follow so keep your eyes peeled. Hopefully all 6 Day 1 winners appear on this blog. Pigs...Fly... etc... Be Lucky.
Sunday, 17 June 2012
Monday 18th June -
(NAP) SASH OF HONOUR 840 WINDSOR
Shown ability in 2 much hotter races than this. Multiple winners come out of both starts to date.
GANGSTER BANKSTERS 415 CARLISLE
Comfortable put away last time out, but winner has won again. Should win before too long in handicap company and today could be the day to catch at a price.
SET TO MUSIC 755 WARWICK
I'm quite taken by the queens filly, I think she's a good horse. There may be slight concerns with the ground but they are probably more worried about that than any of her rivals.
NEWBIE CORNER
SKY GARDEN 640 WINDSOR
Haggas can't do a lot wrong at the moment.
RUSLAND 840 WINDSOR
Not from "sexy" connections, so will be overpriced. Won't have to be too good to make an impression, hopefully won't get to the NAP though.
FOOTBALL
Well these last 2 days haven't gone exactly to plan, I bet people tradiong on who goes through/out are having a field day during the games. I'll just give my bets and not pretend that I can call these football matches. I had Ireland to beat Italy pre tournament but the Italians have pleasantly surprised me, whereas the Irish have been weak. They have an abundance of passion in the stands and just can't seem to translate it to the pitch.
SPAIN 1 CROATIA 0 - XAVI
ITALY 3 IRELAND 1 - MARCHISIO
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Saturday, 16 June 2012
Sunday 17th June -
When I've finished here, I shall dive into yesterdays formlines then begin my blog for Royal Ascot, i have until the kids get up and want to give me presents and stuff.
CORK
315 INXILE
350 EBALVIRA
DONCASTER
335 SHAHZAN
SALISBURY
400 LIBRANNO
430 MARTIAL ART
CHANTILLY
245 KISSED
405 MASTERSTROKE
435 FURY
NEWBIE CORNER
2 should be decent
PERFORMANCE 210 CORK
ALBANKA 325 SALISBURY
the others
SCENT OF ROSES 210 CORK
BLUE BULLET 210 CORK
JIM TANGO 230 DONNY
NATIVE EIGHT 230 DONNY
ROC DE PRINCE 230 DONNY
TREASURED DREAM 325 SALIS
MARTIAL ART 430 SALIS
I'd suggest following these until 1st Hcap start, if they don't win by then, they probably won't!
FOOTBALL
Germany will batter Denmark, they are perfect in every part of the pitch and it took a moment of magic from Van Persie to even give Holland a glimmer of hope. Thomas Muller hasn't really got firing yet, but he is a chap for a big occasion so I'll pop him down for the first goal.
GERMANY 3 DENMARK 0 - MULLER
I think the Dutch will be absolutely enthused by the fact that they can still qualify, and I don't think Portugal are good enough to play out a draw, so I'm hoping both teams will go for the jugular, Holland to win by the odd goal. I'll be supporting Holland as I'm not a fan of Cristiano Ronaldo FC, Arjen Robben wasn't best impressed being subbed versus the Germans and might have a point to prove.
HOLLAND 3 PORTUGAL 2 - ROBBEN
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Friday, 15 June 2012
Saturday 16th June -
YORK
205 LEXINGTON BOY
235 NAVAJO CHIEF
310 VAN ELLIS
345 TULLIUS
445 UNSINKABLE
SANDOWN
220 TAKEITFROMALADY
250 STAGE ATTRACTION
325 PEARL SECRET (NAP)
430 SHAMAAL NIBRAAS
LEICESTER
745 ROYAL REYAH
LIMERICK
825 HEROINE CHIC
A new feature, I'm going to try to find you some newcomers to watch, and potentially with a good run, follow. I have 5 today.
UNSINKABLE/REGGIE BOND 445 YORK
CHECKPOINT/SIR QUINTIN 500 SAND
HANDSOME STRANGER 555 LIMER
FOOTBALL
Firstly I am sticking with my pre tournament prediciton of a draw between Russia and Greece, and it's possible, unless Poland batter Czech (or if Czech beat Poland, unlikely imo), Russia just need 1 point to top the group, they will know this, id imagine 1 or 2 will be rested, I expect Russia to score first, early on and the Greeks are much better when they have gone behind and often finish the game well, I said draw pre tounament and I'm sticking to it, so help me god.
RUSSIA 1 GREECE 1 - DZAGOEV
I fancy Poland to beat Czech Rep, the co-hosts have looked much better than their ageing opponents and will assault them with a barrage of attack just like the Russians did, A draw won't be enough for Poland and the fans will be in full voice to assist matters. The Czechs have looked second best in both games, apart from the first 10 minutes v Greece, and up against it here too. I think Poland to lead and when news breaks of Greece's equaliser really kick into top gear, but not quite enough to top the group.
POLAND 3 CZECH REP 1 - LEWANDOWSKI
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Friday 15th June -
AINTREE
625 PEACHEY MOMENT
700 JOLLY ROGER
735 BHALTAIR
GOODWOOD
615 HATTA STREAM (NAP)
800 FREDDY Q
SANDOWN
420 ALDWICK BAY
YORK
200 INCHY COO
230 VALIANT
305 DEAUVILLE FLYER
410 LE TOREADOR
445 LORD AERYN
FOOTY
Both results correct yesterday, a correct score also and Marchisio tried his damndest to land our first Opening Scorer bet!!!
FRANCE 2 UKRAINE 1 - RIBERY
SWEDEN 2 ENGLAND 2 - ELMANDER
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday, 13 June 2012
Thursday 14th June -
NEWBURY
325 GREAT HEAVENS
400 GOLD SHOW
NOTTINGHAM
410 DOCOFTHEBAY
LEOPARDSTOWN
555 ALANZA
625 FIRE LILY
HAYDOCK
820 LELAPS (NAP)
FOOTBALL
SPAIN v IRELAND
This will be 90 minutes of the Irish chasing a ball, something akin to if Stoke played Barcelona, and if you look at the line ups similarities are rife throughout. The problem with Spain is they are as ruthless as a kitten. Against Italy, a side in turmoil, battered 3-0 in final friendly, match fixing scandal rife off the pitch. They didn't play a striker!!!!!! I think Spain will break through the Green bus at some point but it will be a very frustrating game for Spaniards and neutrals and a bold effort from the Boys in Green.
SPAIN 1 IRELAND 0 - XAVI
ITALY v CROATIA
These 2 sides were both better than I had estimated before the tournament. Croatia lead the group and a draw would be plenty for them. They have a lethal strikeforce in Jelavic and Manzukic ably assisted by the class of Modric. The Italians not the most forward thinking mentality but will play with passion. I think Italy will believe that they can beat the Irish and therefore will also be quite content with the draw.
ITALY 1 CROATIA 1 - MARCHISIO
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Wednesday 13th June -
HAYDOCK
250 FANTACISE
350 MICA MIKA
YARMOUTH
340 TAGULA NIGHT
510 GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
HAMILTON
920 SEATTLE SOUNDER
FAIRYHOUSE
830 PURPLE
Good Luck
FOOTY
Another CS landed last night, shame I didn't quite get the intricacies right or it would have been a massive payday. 2 intriguing games tonight.
DENMARK v PORTUGAL
A draw will likely be good enough to send the Danes through and they will know it. But Portugal obviously have the class in their side of Cristiano Ronaldo, although he's never been a player for the big stage, he always has the potential of 1 game. I'll go Bendtner to open the scoring and the Danes to sit on it like they did v Holland but a moment of magic from Cristiano to keep the Portugese slim hopes alive.
DENMARK 1 PORTUGAL 1 - Bendtner
HOLLAND v GERMANY
The Dutch had little urgency v Denmark, Van Persie was easily dealt with, now the Germans are better than Denmark, more disciplined than Denmark and have a far more potent attacking threat than Denmark. These are another 2 sides that don't really get on, but the Germans are just perfect, if you were a coach you'd happily show your team vid after vid. An unpretty but perfect 1-0
GERMANY 1 HOLLAND 0 - Muller
Happy Punting
Monday, 11 June 2012
Tuesday 12th June -
CYRUS SOD - 1515 LINGFIELD (NAP)
was beaten by 2 he was giving away a stone in weight to on handicap debut. Final maiden attempt he was seen off only by a smart performer who competed a large prize on Saturday. Ground no concern, Sire has SR in double figures on soft and heavy, question marks on the distance but dams full brother Eijaaz is a multiple winner over 1m4/1m6, this one has to start winning soon and appears to have been found a solid opening.
PISCEAN - 1550 LINGFIELD
AW-Turf Strike rate reads 28%-8% meaning he will be happy that this is the first race on the polytrack at Lingfield today. 25% at the track, 50% over the distance, the negatives are that he is higher in the weights than ever, and yet to win at this level. But pretty prolific below it. Has a chance at a decent price if things fall right.
YOU'RE THE TOP - 2040 SOUTHWELL
One for the incredible pairing of Henderson-McCoy. 33% strike rate on all career starts. Missed over a year with injury, but kept in by connections and may well have needed last times run. Hurdle form reads 33F111, this was a festival rated horse in his day and todays handicap rating of 130 is lower than that he achieved on final hurdle win (131) before going chasing. Bet365 are laying at 9/1 while he is as low as 13/2 elsewhere, I believe the latter price will look good come racetime if he has a chance. Surely any horse with McCoy on has A chance?
That's it for me, now the footy.
A great day yesterday, correctly predicting both results with a CS thrown in on the England game.
GREECE v CZECH REP
The Greeks won't be as urgent as Russia, that will help the ageing Czech's no end. But we will get more clue as to the standard of the teams in this group. I think the Greeks will be keen to get 3 points on the board after squandering chances and suffering from bad decisions versus the co-hosts. I predict
GREECE 1 CZECH REP 0 - GEKAS to score.
POLAND v RUSSIA
Expect a full blooded game here, the Poles and Russians don't generally see eye to eye, and perhaps the football could be lost. That will play into the hands of the Poles, who lets face it, are much less classy than their opponents. I think the hosts will take home advantage in hand and the scrappy game to take the lead but will struggle to withstand the inevitable barrage of Russian pressure and the visitors will equalise.
POLAND 1 RUSSIA 1 - Lewandowski is to obvious so I'm taking a punt on OBRANIAK
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday, 10 June 2012
Monday 11th June -
TREBLE
HALF A BILLION 750 PONTEFRACT (NAP)
GABRIALS STAR 820 PONTEFRACT
MASTER OF DISGUISE 920 PONTEFRACT
RATED
NEWTON ABBOT
400 VICTOR LEUDORUM
PONTEFRACT
750 HALF A BILLION
ALERTS
FOLKESTONE
245 AVONVALLEY
345 DEMOISELLE BOND / DINGAAN
445 FOURTH OF JUNE / YES CHEF
PONTEFRACT
750 ORDERSFROMROME / WHISKY BRAVO
820 ESHAAB / GABRIALS STAR
850 MAZOVIAN
920 MASTER OF DISGUISE
ROSCOMMON
630 VIOLET LASHES
800 FORJOETHEPLUMBER / GIVE US A HAND
WINDSOR
710 STANDPOINT
740 RED SENOR / SIGNIFER
That's it
FOOTY
I don't know how many noticed but I put up an Italian player as a goalscorer in the Ireland/Croatia game, that's goping down as my #Hansenmoment for the tournament. My bets today revolve around the following criteria.
ENGLAND 1-1 + WALCOTT
UKRAINE 3-2 + YARMOLENKO
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday, 9 June 2012
Sunday 10th June -
TREBLE
EASTLAKE 300 WORCESTER (NAP)
LORD REDSGIRTH 310 PERTH
AURORAS ENCORE 410 PERTH
PERTH
240 PRICELESS ART
310 LORD REDSGIRTH
410 AURORAS ENCORE / COTTAGE OAK
440 COOL BARANCA
WORCESTER
300 EASTLAKE
330 AMUSE ME
CURRAGH
250 CAPE OF APPROVAL
320 ERIN'S GAL
350 BROG DEAS / SHARALAM
450 FILATORE
520 LIVIA GALILEI
Good Luck
FOOTBALL
My bets today will revolve around
SPAIN 1-0 & XAVI
ITALY 1-1 & MARCHISIO
and ROSBERG podium finish at Stan James 10/3 looks pretty sexy.
Happy Punting
Saturday 9th June -
TREBLE
SIGNIFER 450 CHESTER (NAP)
TWELVE STRINGS 830 WINDSOR
YORKSHIRE ICON 645 NEWCASTLE
CHESTER
235 DUBAI DYNAMO / KYLLACHY STAR
310 TRES CORONAS
415 BINT ALZAIN / JUNGLE BAY
450 SIGNIFER / ROYAL REYAH / RUSTY ROCKET
525 AMBALA
DONCASTER
205 GREY MIRAGE / WARFARE
240 BECKY LOU
345 KINGSCROFT / LIGHT FROM MARS /TARIQ TOO
420 STARBOARD
NEWMARKET
220 DEIA SUNRISE / SAVANNA DAYS / TAKE IT FROM A LADY
255 ALBAQAA / ES QUE LOVE / JOE PACKET
330 REACHFORTHEBUCKS / ROMEO MONTAGUE
400 CLASSIC VINTAGE / QUSHCHI
540 CRUNCHED
WORCESTER
320 QASPAL
425 BOB CASEY
500 QULINTON
535 PEARLS LEGEND
605 WILD WEST
NAVAN
410 MAID TO MASTER
515 PURPLE / ROMAN GENERAL / TOHUGO
NEWCASTLE
645 YORKSHIRE ICON
815 BRING SWEETS
WINDSOR
730 CAPTAIN SCOOBY / HINTON ADMIRAL / INTERCEPT
830 TWELVE STRINGS
Very competitive day so tread careful
FOOTY
My bets revolve around
GERMANY 2-1 MULLER
and
HOLLAND 3-1 VAN DER VAART
Be Lucky.
Friday, 8 June 2012
Friday 8th June -
Here's my selections for today.
TREBLE (Double with 10% bonus, lol)
QARAABA 850 DONCASTER (NAP)
LASER BLAZER 910 BATH
SHANTARAM 320 NEWMARKET
BATH
600 TAKE TWO
630 GOLDEN WATERS
735 HEY FIDDLE FIDDLE
910 LASER BLAZER
CATTERICK
345 MAZOVIAN
DONCASTER
745 INDIAN JACK
820 INCENDIARY
850 JIWEN
850 QARAABA
GOODWOOD
650 LUGGERS HALL
650 PORGY
800 SPANISH WEDDING
830 BLESS YOU
830 CELTIC SIXPENCE
LEOPARDSTOWN
635 FRONTIER
635 TOWER ROCK
735 ROYAL DIAMOND
835 STRANDFIELD LADY
MARKET RASEN
220 LUCKY LANDING
255 LOUGH INCH
405 MICKMACMAGOOLE
515 KING MAK
NEWMARKET
320 SHANTARAM
355 MY SON MAX
355 WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN
430 SAMBA KING
430 VALLEY OF DESTINY
505 BOOTS AND SPURS
Good Luck and Happy Punting
FOOTBALL
If you didn't know the Euros start today, I'm not sure the Ukrainians were sent the memo judging by the building sites on the news last night. But we all know that FIFA/UEFA are a joke and their placement of major tournaments leaves a lot to be desired. There are 2 matches tonight and we start with the mouth watering clash between..... Poland and Greece!
I think this is going to be a horrible match to watch, I'd likely not bother but I'll be at work so I will. I predict a 0-0 draw, and given that the price on that outcome has been shortening this morning I'd say plenty agree.
The second game should be far more aesthetic, Russia v Czech Republic, The Czech's were a very good side 10 years ago, the problem is they still have pretty much the same team, their top scorer in qualifying was the left back who takes penalties and set pieces. Russia have threats from all angles and the Czech's will be very reliant on their best player Petr Cech to keep the score respectable.
I'm going for the following.
RUSSIA 2 CZECH 0 9/1
SHIROKOV 1st GL 10/1
and the scorecast at 60/1
Thursday, 7 June 2012
Thursday 7th June -
TREBLE
CLICKSNMORTAR 820 TIPPERARY (NAP)
JUSTCALLMEHANDSOME 210 WOLVERHAMPTON
SHOT FROM THE HIP 720 TIPPERARY
WOLVERHAMPTON
210 JUSTCALLMEHANDSOME
310 ZAIN PRINCESS
410 BEST IN SHOW
HAMILTON
300 M J WOODWARD
500 GUCCI D'ORO
LINGFIELD
320 CITY DAZZLER
350 OPUS MAXIMUS
TIPPERARY
720 SHOT FROM THE HIP
820 CLICKSNMORTAR
SANDOWN
725 POOLE HARBOUR
UTTOXETER
625 NORTH STACK
WETHERBY
745 PADDY THE HARE
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
My Euro 2012 Betting Portfolio
GROUP GAMES
Poland/Greece draw 11/5 1-1
Russia bt Czech Rep 11/10 4-1
Greece bt Czech Rep 13/8 1-2
Poland/Russia draw 11/5 1-1
Poland bt Czech Rep 11/5 0-1
Greece/Russia draw 11/5 1-0
Holland bt Denmark 4/7 0-1
Germany bt Portugal 5/6 1-0
Denmark/Portugal draw 11/5 2-3
Germany bt Holland 6/5 2-1
Germany bt Denmark 4/9 2-1
Portugal/Holland draw 11/5 2-1
Spain bt Italy 8/11 1-1
Ireland/Croatia draw 11/5 1-3
Italy/Croatia draw 11/5 1-1
Spain bt Ireland 2/7 4-0
Spain bt Croatia 8/13
Ireland bt Italy 100/30
France/England draw 21/10 1-1
Ukraine bt Sweden 11/8 2-1
France bt Ukraine 11/10 2-0
Sweden/England draw 11/5 2-3 bloody welbeck :-)
England bt Ukraine Evens
France bt Sweden Evens
OUTRIGHT
Germany win 4/1
England e/w 14/1
TOP GOALSCORER
T.Muller e/w 25/1
T.Walcott e/w 80/1
TEAM TO SCORE MOST GOALS
OUTRIGHT and TOP SCORER
Germany and Muller 50/1
PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT
T.Muller 20/1
WINNING GROUP
Group B 11/8
GROUP WINNERS
Russia 7/5 3rd
Germany 11/10 1st
Spain 4/7
France 13/8
QUALIFY
Greece 13/10 yes
Holland 8/15 no
Ireland 7/2 no
England 8/15
FINALISTS
Germany v England 22/1
COUNTRY TOP SCORERS
Germany - Muller 9/1
England - Walcott 10/1
Spain - Xavi 20/1
Holland - Van Der Vaart 10/1 joint with RVP
Sweden - Elm 20/1
Poland - Obraniak 12/1 Lewandoski?
Portugal - Nani 8/1
France - Ribery 10/1
Ireland - McClean 10/1
Greece - Gekas 6/1
Russia - Shirokov 9/1 Dzagoev
Italy - Marchisio 16/1
GROUP FORECASTS
Russia - Greece 6/1 Czech Rep-Greece
Germany - Holland 5/2 Germany-Portugal
Spain - Ireland 8/1
France - England 7/2
BOTTOM OF GROUPS
Czech Rep 15/8 Poland
Italy 11/2
TOP TEAM REPRESENTATIVE SCORER
Arsenal - Walcott 12/1
Barcelona - Xavi 6/1
Bayern Mun - Muller 9/2
Tottenham - Van Der Vaart 13/5
Good Luck, Happy Punting and Watch This Space.
OUTRIGHT and TOP SCORER
Germany and Gomez 10/1
Wednesday 6th June -
TREBLE
TAJNEED (NAP) 810 RIPON
INVISIBLE MAN 415 NOTTINGHAM
LYTHAM 900 KEMPTON
Pays 288/1 on www.betfred.com
NOTTINGHAM
200 SEAMUS SHINDIG
415 INVISIBLE MAN
445 STELLAR EXPRESS
CARTMEL
315 HATHAMORE
350 HELLO BUD
525 LETTERPRESS
KEMPTON
630 PICK A LITTLE
700 MEGALALA
900 LYTHAM
RIPON
740 PARC DE LAUNAY
810 TAJNEED
FAIRYHOUSE
550 GREEK CANYON
Good Luck and Happy Punting
GOLF
ST JUDE CLASSIC
WIN
Z.JOHNSON
G.McDOWELL
E/W
T.HERRON
J.BOHN
K.REIFERS
T.MATTESON
J.PETERSON
Good Luck
Tuesday, 5 June 2012
Tuesday 5th June -
TREBLE
MATA HARI BLUE 525 LEICESTER (NAP)
SPACE TELESCOPE 410 FFOS LAS
FADE INTO FIFTY 205 REDCAR
YARMOUTH
220 MOWHOOB
325 UTTERANCE
430 AMOYA
FFOS LAS
410 SPACE TELESCOPE
440 TROOPER CLARENCE
REDCAR
205 FADE INTO FIFTY
310 HIGHLIFE DANCER
LEICESTER
525 MATA HARI BLUE
DOWNPATRICK
435 ZEST FOR LIFE
Good Luck and Happy Punting
My Yarmouth Placepot / indicates legs
5+1/1+3/7+1/8+1/1+8/9+16+7
Monday, 4 June 2012
Monday 4th June - Bank Holiday Muck
TREBLE
BANNA BOIRCHE (NAP) 1500 NAAS
ZARIYNA 1745 NAAS
DAWN APPROACH 1610 NAAS
NAAS
300 BANNA BOIRCHE
410 DAWN APPROACH
445 SKY LANTERN
545 ZARIYNA
CARLISLE
440 HOT ROD MAMMA
515 MIAMI GATOR
550 SOLAR SPIRIT
LEICESTER
340 CHORAL
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday, 2 June 2012
Sunday 3rd June
TREBLE
SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY (NAP) 440 UTTOXETER
BATHWICK MAN 410 UTTOXETER
ROYAL BAJAN 320 NOTTINGHAM
FONTWELL
300 TERRA BLEU
330 REFERRENT
400 SABLAZO
430 AINE'S DELIGHT
500 CYPRESS GROVE
UTTOXETER
410 BATHWICK MAN
440 SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY
NOTTINGHAM
320 ROYAL BAJAN
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 2nd June - Derby Day
TREBLE
RED JAZZ (NAP) 235 HAYDOCK
SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL 300 BEVERLEY
KINGS LEGACY 730 STRATFORD
TIPS
EPSOM
135 POSITION
205 LIBER
240 RED CADEAUX
315 SOHRAAB
400 BONFIRE
450 FIERY LAD
525 BALDEMAR
HAYDOCK
210 LORDOFTHEHOUSE
235 RED JAZZ
310 KHAWLAH
340 SAMMINDER
440 PEPPER LANE
MUSSELBURGH
155 TATLISU
255 EXCEL BOLT
330 MAASTRICHT
BEVERLEY
300 SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL
STRATFORD
730 KING'S LEGACY
Right that's the tips.
Today I will be laying
EUXTON HALL 205 EPSOM
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY 240 EPSOM
BOGART 340 HAYDOCK
CAMELOT 400 EPSOM
THE DISENGAGER 730 STRATFORD
Finally I'm having a crack at some Each Way/Place bets that look relatively good value, it's not something I like to do but lots of big prices showing up well for me but not looking like winners.
MISTER MUSIC 135 EPS
ENTIFAADHAA 135 EPS
DONCASTER ROVER 235 HAY
GO GO GREEN 255 MUS
DIAMOND CHARLIE 315 EPS
YORK GLORY 315 EPS
CLAYTON 330 MUS
GOOD MORNING STAR 330 MUS
MAIN SEQUENCE 400 EPS
HAAMAAT 440 HAY
NOVERRE TO GO 525 EPS
COMMEMORATION DAY 730 STR
MARLEY ROCA 730 STR
Good Luck and Happy Punting