Cheltenham Festival Betting Survival Guide Day 1

Last year for Cheltenham I wrote a blog with a lot of bets in, using up a lot of points funding. To be fair I got out of jail with the drift on Big Bucks for the World Hurdle, but no real headway was made from that blog. At Royal Ascot  I switched it up a bit. I will scour the stats, trends, races and contenders and point you all in the right direction. Go back and read the Ascot blogs if you wish and then check the results, they stand up to strict scrutiny if I do say so myself. We'll start at the best place to do so, with the roar and the

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

Brave Inca, in 2004, was the last Jolly to win this race. An interesting stat is that all of the winners have won 3 times prior to coming into this race. French Bred horses have only managed 1 winner, from 37 runners. Although that was Al Ferof 2 years ago so could be a trend on the way out. It's 50/50 this race between the English and Irish trainers although the last 3 have all hailed from these shores. Also interesting is that this race has eluded Nicky Henderson and he saddles the favourite MY TENT OR YOURS. I shan't begin the "he hasn't run at Cheltenham, so he can't do the hill debate", but his response to pressure is a little worrying, he tends to hang left and while game doesn't appear to have a real turn of foot. I may be wrong, I have been before. But this is seen by many as a banker and I'm happy to take him on. But with what. Most of the horses in here are favoured by the trends. MELODIC RENDEZVOUS is progressive and comes in in great form but has done his best winning in the mud, which is unlikely next week. DODGING BULLETS, twice a course winner, struggled through bottomless ground at Kempton when third to the late Darlan, ground will be better and will suit him much more come Tuesday. RULE THE WORLD and JEZKI are 2 I like from the Emerald Isle, with the latter being the preference. Like I say so many fit the trends they really do. On the day the top 6 in the betting have provided 8/10 winners with only 2 favs so you're looking ideally for something 3-6 in the betting. With 0 4yo winners and only 1 aged 7 or higher then 5-6 appears to be the best play. Based on this snippet you're looking perhaps at DODGING BULLETS. We'll see. My final decision will be made and relayed on the day as always.

ARKLE

Race 2 of Day 1 is the Arkle. Favourites have bookended the last 10 runnings, it's certainly not a regularity. However there's never been a winner higher than 9/1 either. Sizing Europe, 2010, is the only 8yo to win this, the rest have been younger. SIMONSIG is the jolly here, another interesting one though, whereby the only time he's been gotten off the bridle he never had an answer. OVERTURN is next in the market, and this horse only knows one way to run, go go go, this will likely help SIMONSIG as he'll have something to aim at. It'll be interesting to see what lines up here. MAJALA could be an interesting one if deciding upon this target.

JLT SPECIALTY CHASE

Race 3. All of the last 10 winners have been rated between 129 and 143. Only Bensalem has won carrying more than 11 stone. There has not been a 6yo winner, nor one aged 11+. As for the jolly, only 3 favourites have won this race since 1969. You should be able to use that to find something you fancy when the final line up is known. Again unsure if he'll line up as yet but Phillip Hobbs' DUKE OF LUCCA looks potentially well treated.

CHAMPION HURDLE

The day's centrepiece. Just 10 remain at the 5 day stage. 1 of which, Cotton Mill is rated unlikely. But we should have 9. With all credit to Khyber Kim and Balder Succes I think this is beyond them. 6-8 is the age range of choice historically so we say thanks for coming to Binocular and Hurricane Fly, who both did for each other last year when allowing a soft lead, in my opinion. Countrywide Flame would have it to fine through Rock on Ruby on better ground. So we're looking at last years winner ROCK ON RUBY, GRANDOUET, ZARKANDAR, and CINDERS AND ASHES. I've deliberately left C&A in as we haven't had a chance to see him on decent ground and he's done it here, this day, last year. ROCK ON RUBY wants a pace to aim at for me. He got a tow from Overturn last year and I think he would have been beat if he'd gotten involved with Binocular and the Fly. GRANDOUET will travel like a winner, but he's made errors jumping when pace switches up and also has been found out off the bridle. ZARKANDAR has done no wrong this year, gave over a stone to rivals on seasonal reappearance at Wincaton and then twice since plugged through horrid ground gamely to do the business.

GLENFARCAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

Phillip Hobbs' BALTHAZAR KING was the first British trained runner I've seen win one of these last year. The Irish just seem to care a bit more. The market generally get this race right so stay near the top, and Enda Bolger just seems to know how to train horses for this course. It's more a watching brief for me, provided no fatalities, it's a wonderful spectacle.

OLBG MARES HURDLE

QUEVEGA bids to be the first horse to win the same race at the festival 5 times. Can anything stop her? NO. It's as simple as that. There doesn't appear to be any hype horse lining up so she won't be any sort of price, just sit back and watch as super mare make history.

REWARDS FOR RACING NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE

Last year won by the story that was Hunt Ball. Horses rated in the mid-130's have a decent record in this race. As a rule you are looking for horses that placed at least last time out and half of the winners ran at the previous years festival. I'm always a fan of horses that jock-up early, it shows an indication of intent in my eyes. So taking the trends into account I'm prepared to finish Day 1 off with a bet.
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 10/1 and
ATTAGLANCE 10/1
is my dutch.