Morning all, no winner yesterday but he was 3rd at 7/1 so the most cautious each way players will have made a little. I have 3 bets today, and I'll have a look at the big race also.
135 EPSOM - THISTLE BIRD
I'm quite a fan of Roger Cahrlton's mare. She established herself as a listed-group class horse last year and her last 2 runs, second and third, have been well and truly franked by Chigun hopping across to Ireland to win the Group 3 Abu Dhabi stakes. She should be fit having had a run this year, she missed out on Group 2 glory very narrowly last season, and there isn't anything here that you could suggest might have progresses as all are relatively exposed. She is highest in on official ratings, I think she'll go off shorter than the general 4/1 available right now. She is my best bet of the day.
740 TRAMORE - EDEYMI
This one will be short, quite rightly so. He was a pretty good hurdler and was fancied for the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham before being bought down. His big hangup hurdling was the need to be dropped out, the races had a tendency of getting away from him at times. Now if you take his hurdles rating compared to the known form of some of these over fences he could win this 30+ lengths, yet the tissue suggests a 6/4 chance. If we get anywhere near that then he's a big bet (make sure you can afford it), essentially you are backing that he takes to fences, Tony Martin is an excellent trainer who time and again judges perfectly where to run his horses, and that he doesn't find too much trouble.
715 DOWNROYAL - EALAIN AIBREAN
This one will be short too, and maybe just stick to boosting the prices on the other 2 rather than a single, we'll see. In maidens if the book opens up short you can often find the bookies struggle to lay a bet and will try and get some, punters will see this then try to get the favourite beat and we have a drifter. Her second place last time has been boosted by the 3rd winning up in class, beating a well fancied runner in the process. I picked her out as useful before her debut and she showed by coming second there as well. She's dropped back to 5f by Dermot Weld, again a man whose intentions you'd struggle to argue, I think she's the daily banker.
Good Luck
THE INVESTEC OAKS - 400 EPSOM
The second fillies classic is upon us. To be fair it doesn't look the worst renewal. Very very open. I have to try and be impartial here but I'm sitting on a ticket at 20/1 for the 9/4 favourite Secret Gesture. She's done no wrong, a solid debut although the one that beat her that day has actually been turned over by her stablemate this year! She broke her maiden tag pretty quickly 3 weeks later, then put in an incredible performance of reappearance this year in the Lingfield Oaks trial, leaving everything else almost standing. She's the obvious choice for this race. Moth leads the Irish charge, she didn't show much as a 2yo but they obviously liked her as Joseph hasn't left her saddle, she looked nice when landing a maiden at the Curragh and then really stepped that up with a 3rd in the 1000 Guineas, she was tardy at the start and ridden like something out of a cowboy film in a bid to find a passage, she picked up nicely perhaps not making any real ground on the winner but still visually decent. These 2 look the obvious chances and no-one would blame you for having a bet. Liber Nauticus put in a solid performance in the Musidora, she's a very game filly and with Ryan Moore on top rivals won't fancy taking her on in a finsh. Banoffee, like LN, is 2 wins from 2 starts, she came home in the Cheshire Oaks with a real rattle showing an excellent turn of foot, this is a stronger race though and similar tactics could see the race get away from her. Say, Aiden O'Brian's second string, this was Pricewise Antepost pick. She's another that only really came to prominence as a 3yo. She'll appreciate the rain we've been having. A taking win in her Cork maiden earlier this month but did she beat anything? She was sent off 1/6, and won like a 1/6 shot should, the second home is only rated 70! Talent. Stablemate to the favourite. She won the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on Guineas day. The trainer has said if he didn't have SG he'd be very excited about this one. She came home well to beat the only horse who has headed Secret Gesture. I think she's a decent outside chance. Of the rest I think Gertrude Versed is the overpriced one. She was collared by Banoffee, some would say she hit the front too early. If you take that into account then you could think that 33/1 is striking value, when Banoffee is in at 8/1. She looks like she can only be pushed along for about a furlong, to my naked eye, so William will have to play a solid game to get her involved but I think she has a squeak. So what do I advise as a bet.
Take your choice, pay your money any of the top 3, they are all decent horses who no-one would begrudge winning. Like I say I have an AP slip for Secret Gesture, and I've put Moth up in a tipping competition. For each way/value/place seekers Talent and Gertrude Versed both look a little overpriced so an each way or place play on either of them isn't going to hurt.
So Good Luck with whatever you decide, and enjoy the race. It's must easier tomorrow. :-p
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