After the ominous header to this blog I should probably state that this is a preview of sorts for the, now titled, Skybet Football League. It won't be enriched with stats, or probably anything vaguely interesting, it will merely be my opinion on a few things and where I'd be putting my money.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Every year this league appears to get more competitive. Favouritism is currently split between Cardiff and Derby. It's worth noting that the last pre-season favourite to oblige in this league were Manchester City in 2002! In fact, 5 of the last 6 winners have been double figure odds (12/1-18/1 range)
Sides relegated from the Premier League often find this league harder than they'd expect I guess, that and the upheaval of players who obviously wish to remain in the top flight make it tough. I think of the 3 that came down Fulham are best equipped to bounce back, the 11 million signing of Ross McCormack is a huge statement, he will guarantee goals at this level and Scott Parker brings invaluable experience to the heart of the pitch and ability higher than this level. There's been murmurs from released players that the manager work them too hard, but you look at Fulham's side last season and feel if they had worked hard in the first place they wouldn't have been relegated. I don't think they'll win the league but Victor and Fred offer a very generous 10/3 about them getting promoted.
My choice of the winner is Wigan. Once Europe and Owen Coyle were out of the way, to me they looked the best side in the league. Jordi Gomez departure is a tough one to take but former Barcelona trainee Oriel Riera could add goals, he got 13 last year in La Liga for relegated Osasuna. Uwe Rosler appears a very good manager and a Brentford player under his charge stated that everything he bought to that club was Premier League standard. When Wigan rubbed shoulders with Premier League opposition last year they looked far from out of place, beating Man City and drawing with Arsenal. For me they should be the class act and 10/1 was accepted graciously.
Other contenders have to include Blackburn, they lost just 4 games in the 2nd half of the season last year, and for some reason no one has relieved them of the services of Jordan Rhodes who has scored 122 goals in the last 5 seasons! Bournemouth are an interesting option, Eddie Howe is Mr Bournemouth and he brings an attacking flair to the south coast side. Strikers Yann Kermorgant (9 in 16 from January) and Callum Wilson (21 in 37 for Coventry) should be prolific and the Cherries could easily find themselves improving on last years highest ever finish of 10th and even flirting with the Playoffs. Brighton for me will do well to reach the playoffs for a third year running, the guy in charge here changes his managers more often than Daniel Levy and the sale of Leonardo Ulloa is a big blow. Cardiff, a circus act, they'll have to hope for a steady start or they could well be looking up at a number of sides they'd expect to be above given stature. Adam Le Fondre is a good signing, as is David Stockdale but defensively they will be poor. They've sold Steven Caulker who was streets ahead of the rest and to be fair, he's not really that good. Derby were excellent under Steve McClaren last term, but they should have gone up automatically, they blew it and ended up losing the playoff final too despite looking far the better side. Those sort of things can crush a mentality and you'd fear they'll need delivering on the line to succeed this year. Ipswich Town, keeping David McGoldrick fit is their main priority. They will be a solid unit as you'd expect from a Mick McCarthy side but goals are vital and when DM was injured last year they struggled to find them. Norwich should do okay, Lewis Grabban arriving from Bournemouth will see goals go in, but the outgoing Snodgrass will remove a little creativity. Last i heard they were close to bringing in Gary O'neil who would add vital experience and if they have the resolve to keep hold of Nathan Redmond then they'll be contenders. Sadly they don't have a manager, why they got rid of Chris Hughton when they did was just crazy, and this Neil Adams character hardly lit any fires, i'm not sure he even sparked a match! That wipes them off my list to win the league.
I'd expect the league winner to come from one of those sides, but this is football, anything can happen.
WIGAN to win the league 10/1
FULHAM to get promoted 10/3
Top Scorer
Lewis Grabban (Norwich) 20/1
Yann Kermorgant (Bournemouth) 50/1
Handicap
Bournemouth
LEAGUE 1
A side in single figure odds has triumphed 4 of last 6 years, which suggests that this could finally be the year for Sheffield United. There's still some 11/2 about. They looked like the side they should be once Nigel Clough got them going, moving from bottom 4 to Top 7 between January and May. Expect a big challenge from Leyton Orient, they've signed Championship players in a bid to improve on last years 3rd place finish. Peterborough could well improve on last years 6th, they are a side that always score and this year Posh fans may well be left thinking they've signed Gareth Bale.
I have it between these 3, and on the handicap i've backed Notts County. They finished pretty well last year when Shaun Derry took over and they've bought in experienced heads like Roy Carroll, Alan Smith and Hayden Mullins who have plenty experience at the highest level.
SHEFFIELD UTD to win league 11/2
PETERBOROUGH to get promoted 7/2
Handicap
Notts County
LEAGUE 2
Playoff runners up Burton have added some steady additions and they are probably the strongest side at home in the league. Bury have strengthened their squad, spending money including on the market leader in the top scorer market. Mansfield had a solid season last year, finishing 11th and I've seen a stat somewhere suggesting that the average improvement from 1st to 2nd season in the league is just over 5 places, that could lift them to 5th/6th and make them a bet for promotion at 8/1. Southend had the best defence in the league last year and the permanent arrival of Lee Barnard who is better than this level and the loan of Shaquile Coulthirst should add a strike force to be reckoned with. Finally York City who were the in form side going into the playoffs but fell sadly short, failing to score.
A further word on Coulthirst, he's the yound lad that bagged a hattrick away to Barcelona in a youth game with Spurs. His loan to Leyton Orient was cut short by injury after scoring from the bench on his debut. Upon recovery he was loaned to Torquay at this level scoring twice in 5 starts. That ratio alone would see him pushing 20 goals this season and playing in a better team, barring injury or a loan recall that could easily be superceded.
SOUTHEND to win league 18/1
MANSFIELD to be promoted 8/1
COULTHIRST top goalscorer 25/1 (currently only available at StanJames)
Good luck however you choose to play, and enoy. The football is back this weekend, just say that out loud....it sounds good, doesnt it?
I'll have a premier league preview up sometime next week.
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