Thursday 30 October

Not the best of efforts from the selection yesterday. We have to move on. I have 2 today, both at Kempton this evening.

MURADIF 600 KEMPTON (7/2 Bet365, Paddy Power)

Been progressing since switched to AW nurseries, dropped slightly in trip from last run which should suit, bumped into a good one last time out. Big chance here.

SANTEFISIO 630 KEMPTON (15/2 Paddy Power, William Hill)

Been a while since a win, but Course and Distance record reads 135134. Handicapper been relenting on the weights as struggling from lofty mark in class 2, ran with credit in defeat back in 3 last time out, staying on well to come home a never nearer 5th over a sorter trip. All that into account this is pretty favourable for him today.

Good Luck

Wednesday 29 October

Morning all.

I've got one for you today.

EXTRATERRESTRIAL 330 NOTTINGHAM (12/1 Lads, 365, Hills, Sky, Boyles)

Richard Fahey's charge is the wise old man of this race, at 10 years old, in fact the 2 above him in the betting market are both once raced 3 year olds. He has placed on 2 of his 3 visits to the track, the time he didn't was the back end of 2012 from a mark he hasn't been near since. Solid second in similar event at Goodwood last time out. Trainer has saddled 10 winners in the last fortnight.

Good Luck

Sunday 26 October

Morning, I should probably rename this blog "guyssporadicallypresentedracingtips" might be a bit of mouthful though. I've only got a few moments to kill so I'll just jot down a couple i like the look of.

GALWAY

230 IMPERIAL JOEY (to place or EW however you fancy)

LEOPARDSTOWN

1240 EASTER
140   NASUTION
215   INTENSICAL (place or EW)
250   CONVERGENCE
325   HIDDEN UNIVERSE
400   SLI NA FIARANA

Good luck

Friday 24 October

A nice winner found on Wednesday, and a 3rd at a solid price. Sadly the other horse was barely sighted, but the odds of the winner more than covered the 3 bets. I have a few to bounce up today, hopefully there'll be a winner or two amongst them.

LOSTOCK HALL 120 DONCASTER (7/2 Victor and Coral)

Improved with each start and looks to be a fair mark on handicap debut, with 2nd and 4th from his maiden win scoring next time up. Falls into the solid "top weight in a nursery" system and due to rise in the weights in the near future.

VEGAS REBEL 320 NEWBURY (100/30 888, 3/1 Widely)

Scored comfortably on first look at soft ground last time up, and gets similar conditions today. This will be trickier for sure, but I think this one is generously priced.

WIESENTRAUM 340 FAKENHAM (11/4 888, Betway, 5/2 Fred, SJ)

Firstly, it's rare for a Fakeham card to go by without Lucy Wadham registering a chase winner, secondly this one has visited the track twice, registering a win and a second by a head. Also he has been raised 7lb, but for a 14 length demolition of a orse he was only getting a pound from that's probably fair.

Now I have 3 at Dundalk tonight.

STOICHKOV 610 DUNDALK (20/1 PaddyPower)

Right, you have to take a bit of time to ignore the 458480 next to his name. Fundamentally they are irrelevant figures as the only one on this surface, taking jockey claims in, was off a mark 9lb higher. He's a regular here, 27 of his 45 starts. His last win here came over C&D in February off today's exact mark of 53, this will be the first time since that he's raced off this mark. I can't tell you much about the jockey as he's only had 1 ride, but that was very nearly a winner in an apprentice race at Navan.

MISS TEMPLE 740 DUNDALK (11/4 Hills, 365)

Handicap debut for this one, last visit here doesn't offer up the most inspiring form on face value but deeper investigation finds a Group 3 winner, a 20k handicap winner, and a few decent efforts in solid races. Showed pace but didn't quite get home over 6f last time so try at 5 is far from unjustified.

RUSSIAN SOUL 810 DUNDALK (7/2 Victor, Coral, Boyle)

Class animal, only twice finished out of the first 2 on AW, both at Meydan, one of which was the Group 1 Golden Shaheen. For me this is a 2 horse race between the selection and Sir Maximilian. Both rated 108, carrying same weight, one is 7/2 the other as short as 6/4. Then take that the 7/2 is a Group 3 winnr, the 6/4 a listed winner, the 7/2 has a record of 3 wins 4 seconds from 9 AW starts, the 6/4 has 2 3rds (one of which unplaced in 7 runner affair) both in class 4 handicaps at Kempton. The value angle is a no brainer, and for me Russian Soul is the better horse.

Good Luck

Wednesday 22 October

There's one or two I fancy chancing my arm at today. Hopefully they'll perform.

JILLANAR 200 NEWMARKET

No discredit in maiden runs, looks on a useful mark on handicap debut. Trip should pose no issue and ground should be fine with the Pivotal line in the breeding.

PRINCESS GLAMOUR 425 NAVAN

Nothing consistent enough to worry about in this race, but the booking of Pat Smullen to ride this filly jumps off the page. Her mark has dropped considerably and could be a big player at a big price.

ALL ABOUT ALFIE  500 NAVAN

In good form this year and ran okay last time in a race that looks to be working out well. Worth a play at double figure odds.

Sunday October 19

Morning all, no blog yesterday as Saturday mornings are far too busy for me. If I had done one, based on the criteria I have currently been using, we'd have gotten a NR, a 2nd, and 2 losers. So you missed out on nothing.

RAAMZ 130 BATH

Just touched off last time out in a race where the winner has won again, the 4th has won, and the 3rd has twice placed. Young claimer Cam Hardie has won 3 times at the track this year.

HEADLINE NEWS 305 BATH

Has run with credit in higher class races last twice, drop today should put him right in the mix.

SEE AND BE SEEN 335 BATH

Consistent stayer, 2 from 6 at the track, last time out he beat the Cesarewitch winner.

VIOLETS BOY 500 KEMPTON

Powell Snr and Jnr team up on 'arry Redknapp's gelding. Not been disgraced in his run of 2nds, in truth he's been improving each run, there just seems to be 1 better each time.

Good Luck

Friday 17 October

Morning, a terrific return to action with a nice profit, less than a length from the jackpot too. I'll keep with the same format for a while and see how we go.

IVAWOOD 255 NEWMARKET (4/5 widely available)

Potentially the class act in this field. Will she handle the soft ground? If she's a genuinely great horse then she will, the real decent ones can go on anything. There's no rain due in the area today, so it's only going to improve anyway. The race isn't without competition, there's group winners lining up, but on official numbers she has half a stone in hand.

LUCIDA 325 NEWMARKET (13/8 Victor and Fred)

A neck away from becoming a Group 1 winner in the Moyglare, she looked a class act in winning the Rockfel. For me, she should be odds on like Ivawood and her win on yielding ground at Naas should dispel any ground worries.

BRETON ROCK 435 NEWMARKET (6/1 widely available)

Already a Group 2 winner, thrives on softer ground, he's at least placed on 12 of 13 starts, winning 7, 5 over todays trip from 8 attempts. A solid bet.

SILVERY MOON 525 HAYDOCK (20/1 Bet365)

Returned from a break and didn't do a lot, should come on for that. Tim Easterby's charge has landed a handicap over this trip on soft ground. He holds a few of these through indirect formlines, albeit based on races from prior seasons. Chancey but an each way price.

Good Luck

A little reward for my readers.

I've researched something, and I'm quite excited by it. Hopefully you will be too.
I was looking for popular scores in the Premier League that could be profitable to back blind, and have potentially stumbled across a gem. So, what I propose is this. I'll start by explaining it in points and then translate that to cash at the end so you might be able to see the value to yourself.
Back every Premier League game each week to finish 2-2. The odds are very rarely anything different to 14/1, more frequently higher than lower. Back singles at 10pts. So 10 games at 10 pts=100 points. Also back the doubles for a point. In 10 games, you'll need to stake for 45 doubles. So the total layout is 145 points each week/matchday. A single 2-2 would return 150 points, 2 games would result in a 225 point return from a double. As you should be able to work out, 1 2-2 draw would make you a 5 point profit.
Now, here's the evidence, week by week.

Matchday 1
Leicester v Everton and West Brom v Sunderland both finished 2-2.
So you've 2 singles at 150 and a double at 225, a return of 525, and importantly a profit of 380.

Matchday 2
Just Everton v Arsenal this week.
So a 150 return, profit of 5. Total profit 385.

Matchday 3
No 2-2 draws. 145 loss. But we're still 240 to the good.

Matchday 4
Here's a bumper.
Arsenal v Man City, Hull v West Ham and Sunderland v Spurs all finished 2-2.
3 singles at 150, and 3 doubles at 225. Total return of 1125, 980 profit, and 1220 cumulative profit for the season.

Matchday 5
Newcastle v Hull and QPR v Stoke
Another 525 return, add 380 profit giving us 1600 now.

Matchday 6
None 145 loss, but we have a buffer. Profit sits at 1455.

Matchday 7
Leicester v Burnley
Swansea v Newcastle
Another 525, 380 and total bank now 1835.

This is up to date. The profit made so far would cover there being not a single 2-2 draw for the next 12 matchdays.
Obviously you want to know how the points work. Well effectively you have to ensure your stakes for the single is 10 times that for the double. In easiest terms at £1 per point, you'd be £1835 up, but you would be laying out £145 every weekend, not for the faint hearted. We could make it a more working man's bet and say 20p per point. So you'd stake 10x£2 singles, and 45x20p doubles. A layout of £29 per week. Your profit to date still a respectable £367.
If that ratio of 2-2 draws per gameweek (10 games in 7 weeks) were to continue, strictly 1 every week, 2 every 3 weeks. Obviously some weeks you'll get none, and we might get another bumper with 3, but at the ratio the projected profit from matchdays 8 to 38 would be somewhere around 4200 points. So at our working man's staking suggestion £840 in your pocket at the end of the season. I'll continue to monitor and update in a few weeks time.
Any questions, you know where to find me.

Thursday 16 October

Hi, it's been a while. Truth be told I haven't really been feeling it lately, I've still been having a bet of course but the sheer work of preparing selections I feel strong enough about to share was uninviting, For some reason today I fancied it, so hopefully myself and anyone out there who still fancied reading this can be rewarded. I'll put up 4, potentially a Lucky 15/Yankee if that's your thing.

ROGUE DANCER 250 WINCANTON (11/4 Betbright, 5/2 w/ more well known brands)

Been in good form since return from break in the summer, will handle the trip fine. Unlucky last time out when a narrow second to the decent Abbeygrey who has dotted up again in higher class since.

WHAT A GOOD NIGHT 300 UTTOXETER (6/4 365, PP, Hills)

Taking a chance here after a long break, during which he has moved from Twiston Davies to Skelton. On best form this mark gives him a massive chance, albeit that best form isn't very frequent. Yard is going well and horse should probably have 10lb in hand potentially. Worth the shot at odds against.

GLENNTEN 410 BRIGHTON (12/1 BetVictor and McBookie!)

Due to go up 2lb for decent 3rd over C&D in similar conditions last time out. Still looking for a first turf win but certainly showed last time that he's not without a chance. Should be an each way play at worse really and this race hardly contains the most consistent animals.

JAYO TIME 420 WINCANTON (2/1 Betbright, 15/8 elsewhere)

Grand National winning trainer Dr Newland has picked this one up from Ireland, where he ran with credit in solid looking races. Chris Ward, who has 20% Strike rate for the trainer, takes off a useful 5lb to offset any difference in weight between the UK and Ire handicap marks.

Fingers crossed, good luck all.