Morning, I've had a bit of a break. It's tough doing this, having a full time job, and raising three kids. It leaves little time for Football Manager, the struggle is real people. Anyway, I just have 1 today, and it's speculative but we'll see how we go.
HOUDINI 255 WOLVERHAMPTON (Generally 8/1)
Dropped a couple of pounds for coming 5th on handicap debut, the second from that race has come out and won. Timmy Murphy takes the ride, looking for his first winner since switching from the jumps. He has met Longside and Arlechino's Leap previously and is on more favourable terms with both today.
Good Luck
Sunday, 10 May 2015
Sunday, 3 May 2015
Monday 4 May
Morning, did everyone enjoy the Guineas weekend. For me the biggest punting success of the weekend was watching a chap dressed as an inflatable duck beat a casually dressed gentleman in a race across floating punts in the river Cam. Anyway, here's today's treble.
EMILY DAVISON 155 BATH
A solid run down on the south coast last week, gets another chance today on similar ground under similar conditions and should certainly go close again.
ROUSAYAN 245 BEVERLEY
Close second a week ago in a race that has already thrown up a winner. Yard in very good form, especially with handicappers.
SAKHALIN STAR 320 BEVERLEY
Taking a chance that this one mirrors 2014. He needed a run in April before scoring in May off a 2lb higher mark than today. Seen overnight money.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
EMILY DAVISON 155 BATH
A solid run down on the south coast last week, gets another chance today on similar ground under similar conditions and should certainly go close again.
ROUSAYAN 245 BEVERLEY
Close second a week ago in a race that has already thrown up a winner. Yard in very good form, especially with handicappers.
SAKHALIN STAR 320 BEVERLEY
Taking a chance that this one mirrors 2014. He needed a run in April before scoring in May off a 2lb higher mark than today. Seen overnight money.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday, 29 April 2015
Thursday 30 April
Morning, again some winners yesterday. I put up 11 in total and had a 12/1 winner so profit made again. I'm going to be honest, there's nothing I'm overly excited about today, my NAP would do well to sneak into a treble somedays and I only have 5 speculative ones in total. But we'll see how they go, if 1 scores we should be in profit so what's to lose?
LYRICAL THEATRE 715 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
For me she's the one to beat. She's the highest rated and gets weight from her closest rival, who she's already beaten off level weights. Sure I'm in no position sat here at my kitchen table to tell Ruby Walsh that he's on the wrong horse, but I think the prices reflect the jockeys not the horses here.
LUDO ET EMERGO 415 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
A good battling win at Limerick a month ago and form when out of the top end races is pretty good. Concern is the ground might be a bit quick, but If he can run his race then for me he can go close.
SILVER DIXIE 435 LINGFIELD (T)
C&D record is pretty good 124 (the 1 off today's mark, the 2 off 13lb higher, the 4 off 4lb higher) so the handicapper has presented him with a good chance today. At a best price 10/1 (Paddy Power) he's a solid bit of each way value.
the other 2!
DISTRICT ATTORNEY 215 SEDGE
KEEP ON TRACK 450 PUNCH
Good Luck and Happy Punting
LYRICAL THEATRE 715 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
For me she's the one to beat. She's the highest rated and gets weight from her closest rival, who she's already beaten off level weights. Sure I'm in no position sat here at my kitchen table to tell Ruby Walsh that he's on the wrong horse, but I think the prices reflect the jockeys not the horses here.
LUDO ET EMERGO 415 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
A good battling win at Limerick a month ago and form when out of the top end races is pretty good. Concern is the ground might be a bit quick, but If he can run his race then for me he can go close.
SILVER DIXIE 435 LINGFIELD (T)
C&D record is pretty good 124 (the 1 off today's mark, the 2 off 13lb higher, the 4 off 4lb higher) so the handicapper has presented him with a good chance today. At a best price 10/1 (Paddy Power) he's a solid bit of each way value.
the other 2!
DISTRICT ATTORNEY 215 SEDGE
KEEP ON TRACK 450 PUNCH
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday, 28 April 2015
Wednesday 29 April
Morning, so we picked up, obviously Douvan, but 2 more winners on top at 5/1 and 15/2, a solid profit for the day. Hopefully more of the same today. There's sadly no time to go in depth today so will just be a list. I'll pop my treble down, then the extras.
DON COSSACK 530 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
NO MORE HEROES 455 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
LIMATO 405 ASCOT (T)
DEUCE AGAIN 330 ASCOT
COTTRELL 355 WOLVES
SADLER'S RISK 420 PUNCH
KINGSWINFORD 505 WOLVES
NARBOROUGH 520 PONTE
BALLYADAM APPROACH 640 PUNCH
BAILEYS PURSUIT 655 LING
STANLOW 800 LING
Good luck and Happy Punting
DON COSSACK 530 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
NO MORE HEROES 455 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
LIMATO 405 ASCOT (T)
DEUCE AGAIN 330 ASCOT
COTTRELL 355 WOLVES
SADLER'S RISK 420 PUNCH
KINGSWINFORD 505 WOLVES
NARBOROUGH 520 PONTE
BALLYADAM APPROACH 640 PUNCH
BAILEYS PURSUIT 655 LING
STANLOW 800 LING
Good luck and Happy Punting
Monday, 27 April 2015
Tuesday 28 April
Morning all, a couple winners yesterday. 13/8 and 5/4 SPs meant about a 12p/£ loss at LSP, but both were backed so provided you took a price you'd be okay. I've stumbled across a format that I'm going to stick with. I'm going pop up my treble for the day, with a writeup of sorts, then just list any further that were in the calculations. We'll see what happens.
DOUVAN 420 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
No excuses here, he's short, he's the best, he's going to add at least 20% to your winnings when doubled up. There's nothing in this race that would concern me. He should be unbackable, but he isn't, Paddy Power have gone 2/7, and ROI of 28.5%, no bank is giving you that. Obviously there's the small matter of a few bits of wood h has to jump but 28% on a horse that's never looked flustered, never made a blemish, good luck Paddy.
DR RED EYE 225 BRIGHTON (Nb)
Last week Dr Red Eye went down a length giving Ganymede 2lb, today he receives 5lb from the same horse. The other 2 are C&D winners but far from consistent. Expect a solid go from the front. hopefully the weight swing can keep him there.
FELIX YONGER 530 PUNCHESTOWN
I was shocked with the price of this horse, a multiple Grade 2 winner, who seems to be better than ever this year. Okay, there's Grade 1 winners in the race but for me Felix has shown enough to suggest he might be able to mix it with the big boys. This doesn't look the strongest Grade 1 in truth and again it's Paddy sticking their heads above the crowd with a generous 8/1.
JAZRI 255 BRIGHTON
MAIDEN APPROACH 315 NOTTS
STORMBOUND 355 BRIGHTON
FRONTLINE 455 PUNCHESTOWN
COSMIC CHATTER 615 NEWCASTLE
VALSEUR LIDO 640 PUNCHESTOWN
Good Luck and Happy Punting
DOUVAN 420 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
No excuses here, he's short, he's the best, he's going to add at least 20% to your winnings when doubled up. There's nothing in this race that would concern me. He should be unbackable, but he isn't, Paddy Power have gone 2/7, and ROI of 28.5%, no bank is giving you that. Obviously there's the small matter of a few bits of wood h has to jump but 28% on a horse that's never looked flustered, never made a blemish, good luck Paddy.
DR RED EYE 225 BRIGHTON (Nb)
Last week Dr Red Eye went down a length giving Ganymede 2lb, today he receives 5lb from the same horse. The other 2 are C&D winners but far from consistent. Expect a solid go from the front. hopefully the weight swing can keep him there.
FELIX YONGER 530 PUNCHESTOWN
I was shocked with the price of this horse, a multiple Grade 2 winner, who seems to be better than ever this year. Okay, there's Grade 1 winners in the race but for me Felix has shown enough to suggest he might be able to mix it with the big boys. This doesn't look the strongest Grade 1 in truth and again it's Paddy sticking their heads above the crowd with a generous 8/1.
JAZRI 255 BRIGHTON
MAIDEN APPROACH 315 NOTTS
STORMBOUND 355 BRIGHTON
FRONTLINE 455 PUNCHESTOWN
COSMIC CHATTER 615 NEWCASTLE
VALSEUR LIDO 640 PUNCHESTOWN
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday, 26 April 2015
Monday 27 April
Morning, just the 11/4 winner from 5 shots yesterday meant a small loss but nothing too much to worry about. I have 5 again today, with a bit of luck we'll get the 2 winners we need for a profit and work from there.
MARCIANO 130 SOUTHWELL
Destroyed a class 4 here in February from out of the handicap, and has a crack at a class 5 today. Last time's run at Pontefract should be ignored as the horse wore no headgear. No headgear form reads 08008 whereas with headgear (cheekpieces today) reads 1746531, so why they left off last time is case for Mr Holmes. This won't be easy as it's full of horses that like this surface but I think Marciano can kick on again.
SUBSTANTIVO 355 KEMPTON
A 16 time raced maiden isn't a prospect you'd be laying down the deeds of your house upon, but he put in a very eyecatching effort over C&D last time out, running into 3rd from a bad draw and finding trouble. He's drawn pretty much where you'd want to be drawn and David Probert given the legup again. He'll do well to find a better chance to break his duck than today.
LUCKY MARK 445 SOUTHWELL
C&D record since November reads 211433, you have to assume on that he'll be there or thereabouts again. Dropped a pound by the handicapper despite coming 3rd in a race that's working out well, the second has won twice since including once up in class.
CRAZY CHIC 750 WOLVES
Credible 3rd on his only previous all weather run, he's completely unexposed and although you're working a little on trust, Marco Botti does well in these events so should have every chance.
SWENDAB 820 WOLVES
Has generally run well here since the surface changed, one blip where he didn't get 7f when tried at that trip. Has it all to do from top weight and a wide draw, but I think that's factored into the price for you which makes him a shot of value.
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
MARCIANO 130 SOUTHWELL
Destroyed a class 4 here in February from out of the handicap, and has a crack at a class 5 today. Last time's run at Pontefract should be ignored as the horse wore no headgear. No headgear form reads 08008 whereas with headgear (cheekpieces today) reads 1746531, so why they left off last time is case for Mr Holmes. This won't be easy as it's full of horses that like this surface but I think Marciano can kick on again.
SUBSTANTIVO 355 KEMPTON
A 16 time raced maiden isn't a prospect you'd be laying down the deeds of your house upon, but he put in a very eyecatching effort over C&D last time out, running into 3rd from a bad draw and finding trouble. He's drawn pretty much where you'd want to be drawn and David Probert given the legup again. He'll do well to find a better chance to break his duck than today.
LUCKY MARK 445 SOUTHWELL
C&D record since November reads 211433, you have to assume on that he'll be there or thereabouts again. Dropped a pound by the handicapper despite coming 3rd in a race that's working out well, the second has won twice since including once up in class.
CRAZY CHIC 750 WOLVES
Credible 3rd on his only previous all weather run, he's completely unexposed and although you're working a little on trust, Marco Botti does well in these events so should have every chance.
SWENDAB 820 WOLVES
Has generally run well here since the surface changed, one blip where he didn't get 7f when tried at that trip. Has it all to do from top weight and a wide draw, but I think that's factored into the price for you which makes him a shot of value.
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Saturday, 25 April 2015
Sunday 26 April
Morning all, a solid day Friday, I think I'm going to be brave enough to add a P/L ticker as of the 1st May, we'll see. I have 5 today. There was no blog yesterday, party due to time constraints and partly because I thought I had made a tweak too far and wasn't being consistent in my race dissection on the day. Personally it showed as 13 horses I backed finished placed, it was highly frustrating.
SAVED MY BACON 245 CHELMSFORD
Record at the track reads 311, sure it's a drop back to 5f but he seems to have the pace to cope and was collared close home over the same trip at Southwell less than a fortnight ago.
ELM GROVE 325 GOWRAN PARK
Ran respectably last time out, from out of the handicap with the jockey putting up overweight too. He's been officially dropped 4lb, and when all calculations done it puts him 8lb lower than last time out. He didn't get the mile that day and is dropped to 7f today, you have to assume that he has a chance.
RUN WITH PRIDE 420 CHELMSFORD
Not punished by the handicapper for a decent run here 10 days ago, this is a tougher test but should be thereabouts again.
CLIFTON MISS 500 GOWRAN PARK
Only started here career at the back end of last season and is yet to score but she posted a reasonable effort on handicap debut and holds a few of these on formlines.
CONRY 525 CHELMSFORD
This horse has been tumbling down the weights and this is a drop in class down to basement level. Positive jockey booking. For me if Conry wants this, it's his for the taking. If only it were that easy huh?
Good Luck and Happy Punting
SAVED MY BACON 245 CHELMSFORD
Record at the track reads 311, sure it's a drop back to 5f but he seems to have the pace to cope and was collared close home over the same trip at Southwell less than a fortnight ago.
ELM GROVE 325 GOWRAN PARK
Ran respectably last time out, from out of the handicap with the jockey putting up overweight too. He's been officially dropped 4lb, and when all calculations done it puts him 8lb lower than last time out. He didn't get the mile that day and is dropped to 7f today, you have to assume that he has a chance.
RUN WITH PRIDE 420 CHELMSFORD
Not punished by the handicapper for a decent run here 10 days ago, this is a tougher test but should be thereabouts again.
CLIFTON MISS 500 GOWRAN PARK
Only started here career at the back end of last season and is yet to score but she posted a reasonable effort on handicap debut and holds a few of these on formlines.
CONRY 525 CHELMSFORD
This horse has been tumbling down the weights and this is a drop in class down to basement level. Positive jockey booking. For me if Conry wants this, it's his for the taking. If only it were that easy huh?
Good Luck and Happy Punting
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