Friday 31-5-13

Morning all, no winner yesterday but he was 3rd at 7/1 so the most cautious each way players will have made a little. I have 3 bets today, and I'll have a look at the big race also.

135 EPSOM - THISTLE BIRD

I'm quite a fan of Roger Cahrlton's mare. She established herself as a listed-group class horse last year and her last 2 runs, second and third, have been well and truly franked by Chigun hopping across to Ireland to win the Group 3 Abu Dhabi stakes. She should be fit having had a run this year, she missed out on Group 2 glory very narrowly last season, and there isn't anything here that you could suggest might have progresses as all are relatively exposed. She is highest in on official ratings, I think she'll go off shorter than the general 4/1 available right now. She is my best bet of the day.

740 TRAMORE - EDEYMI

This one will be short, quite rightly so. He was a pretty good hurdler and was fancied for the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham before being bought down. His big hangup hurdling was the need to be dropped out, the races had a tendency of getting away from him at times. Now if you take his hurdles rating compared to the known form of some of these over fences he could win this 30+ lengths, yet the tissue suggests a 6/4 chance. If we get anywhere near that then he's a big bet (make sure you can afford it), essentially you are backing that he takes to fences, Tony Martin is an excellent trainer who time and again judges perfectly where to run his horses, and that he doesn't find too much trouble.

715 DOWNROYAL - EALAIN AIBREAN

This one will be short too, and maybe just stick to boosting the prices on the other 2 rather than a single, we'll see. In maidens if the book opens up short you can often find the bookies struggle to lay a bet and will try and get some, punters will see this then try to get the favourite beat and we have a drifter. Her second place last time has been boosted by the 3rd winning up in class, beating a well fancied runner in the process. I picked her out as useful before her debut and she showed by coming second there as well. She's dropped back to 5f by Dermot Weld, again a man whose intentions you'd struggle to argue, I think she's the daily banker.

Good Luck

THE INVESTEC OAKS - 400 EPSOM

The second fillies classic is upon us. To be fair it doesn't look the worst renewal. Very very open. I have to try and be impartial here but I'm sitting on a ticket at 20/1 for the 9/4 favourite Secret Gesture. She's done no wrong, a solid debut although the one that beat her that day has actually been turned over by her stablemate this year! She broke her maiden tag pretty quickly 3 weeks later, then put in an incredible performance of reappearance this year in the Lingfield Oaks trial, leaving everything else almost standing. She's the obvious choice for this race. Moth leads the Irish charge, she didn't show much as a 2yo but they obviously liked her as Joseph hasn't left her saddle, she looked nice when landing a maiden at the Curragh and then really stepped that up with a 3rd in the 1000 Guineas, she was tardy at the start and ridden like something out of a cowboy film in a bid to find a passage, she picked up nicely perhaps not making any real ground on the winner but still visually decent. These 2 look the obvious chances and no-one would blame you for having a bet. Liber Nauticus put in a solid performance in the Musidora, she's a very game filly and with Ryan Moore on top rivals won't fancy taking her on in a finsh. Banoffee, like LN, is 2 wins from 2 starts, she came home in the Cheshire Oaks with a real rattle showing an excellent turn of foot, this is a stronger race though and similar tactics could see the race get away from her. Say, Aiden O'Brian's second string, this was Pricewise Antepost pick. She's another that only really came to prominence as a 3yo. She'll appreciate the rain we've been having. A taking win in her Cork maiden earlier this month but did she beat anything? She was sent off 1/6, and won like a 1/6 shot should, the second home is only rated 70! Talent. Stablemate to the favourite. She won the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on Guineas day. The trainer has said if he didn't have SG he'd be very excited about this one. She came home well to beat the only horse who has headed Secret Gesture. I think she's a decent outside chance. Of the rest I think Gertrude Versed is the overpriced one. She was collared by Banoffee, some would say she hit the front too early. If you take that into account then you could think that 33/1 is striking value, when Banoffee is in at 8/1. She looks like she can only be pushed along for about a furlong, to my naked eye, so William will have to play a solid game to get her involved but I think she has a squeak. So what do I advise as a bet.

Take your choice, pay your money any of the top 3, they are all decent horses who no-one would begrudge winning. Like I say I have an AP slip for Secret Gesture, and I've put Moth up in a tipping competition. For each way/value/place seekers Talent and Gertrude Versed both look a little overpriced so an each way or place play on either of them isn't going to hurt.

So Good Luck with whatever you decide, and enjoy the race. It's must easier tomorrow. :-p

Thursday 30-5-13

Morning all, so 1 bet 1 winner yesterday. Nice, I'm going to try again today. Just 1 bet and see if it can win.

725 GOWRAN PARK - MAUNDY MONEY
This horse has dropped considerably in the weights since his last win, but hasn't been running too bad. Recently back on turf he's shown suggestions that a small revival may be on the cards. He meets some of these today on favourable terms. I think he'll be sent off a squeak of value, maybe somewhere between 7/1-10/1, certainly a big shout to get into the top 4 and maybe even end his long run without a win.

Good Luck

What is broken in my world?

In light of recent events, campaigns and press, I thought I'd give my view on the world I'm in. Most of you are aware I run a retail betting unit for 1 of Britain's largest bookmaking firms. As a die hard sports fan you'd think this was the ideal job for me. You're right, it was. In truth if I didn't have the commitments and trials outside of work I could probably brush things off easier than I manage to now. So where do I begin, the start seems the best place. I entered the industry, relatively recently compared to some, in 2006. Initially for a different firm. At the time Sundays were 11-530, winter closes at 6, 3 days off at Christmas, Good Friday off. Only trading late when night racing on. It was great, conditions were decent for a job that I knew I'd love. It became quickly apparent that I wasn't being paid fairly for the job I was doing, I was made promises that weren't acted upon and I lost faith and loyalty in my employer. It was only a year later a role became available in my current employer, it was essentially the same job I was doing but on a much fairer pay structure. This also came with the added bonus of working at the football ground on matchdays. So once a fortnight I was paid to go and watch a match of football. Brilliant. I was a pig in shit. I'd found myself again. I quickly found myself moved from relief managing to managing the flagship store in the town centre. This shop had 3 competitors within 200 yards. It was a huge challenge, and in my opinion I excelled at it. But slowly the job began to change. Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (you all know what they are) slowly became the forefront of the industry. Painted a colourful picture by the bigwigs but deep down they carry a dark presence. I'll get to them in a short while. Extended trading came in all year, then Sunday's and Bank Holidays, open Good Friday, 1 day off at Christmas. All the decent conditions gone, an antisocial job had been created. Then came single manning. Initially just voluntary, in the mornings, if you were in a quiet shop. It was okay, not ideal but a couple hours here and there no big issue. Lo and behold targets were issued for the "voluntary" single manning. Then slowly pressure started to be put on meeting these targets. At this time it was still strictly no scheduled single manning after 6pm, on safety and welfare grounds! There was single manning taking place on occasion, again here and there you don't begrudge. Then it came. Single Manning Open and Close, with some shops being issued cashier hours barely practical to go for a poo. I was going to write my exact words with my line manager when this was announced, but they don't seem appropriate currently, I was merely speaking for my colleagues, those who wouldn't/couldn't speak up for themselves, the same people expected to be sat alone in what can, at times, be a tempestuous arena. I maintain now that this enforced single manning is unacceptable, unsafe and detracts from customer service.
Onto the FOBTs. For those who've been in a cave or merely stumbled across this blog on an unsuccessful search for a new pair of slippers, these are machines containing roulette and fruit machine games. There are campaigns to get rid, or limit stakes or whatever. Are FOBTs the devil they are painted to be. Sure, you can lose a lot of money very quickly. That isn't ideal in any situation. But a gambler will gamble, an addict will become addicted, whether it be FOBTs or something else. We have procedures in place to help those that need it, sadly the ones who really do need it rarely accept it. Playing these machines over an sustained period of time, you WILL lose money. Roulette odds are set to a 2.7% return to house, the Slots games slightly higher. The biggest problem I see is the punters that believe, like old AWP pub style fruities, if you keep punting you'll fill the box and they'll drop. This very much isn't the case, the odds are fixed, the system is randomly generated by a computer, each session is independent of the last and the more you punt the more you lose. I don't play them. I am a gambler. I bet horses, football, tennis, NFL....well most things. In these I can decide something is value over it's true odds, or what I believe those to be. You don't get that option with Roulette. There are 37 holes for the ball to fall in, true odds are always 36/1, you get paid everytime 35/1. This isn't a value bet, so it's not one for me. So why are these so bad? Well a consumer can stand £100 of bets at anyone go, and these spins can go off every 30-40 seconds. Now let me quickly explain something. On the roulette the most you can play on a number is 13.85 at 35/1, making a £500 win. To make the £100 table limit you'd have to cover 7 numbers. This then changes your odds to 4/1 if you win, against true odds of about 4 and a quarter to one. Perhaps if these players don't have the basic statistical knowledge to understand that they cannot possibly win then something should be done to help them. I don't know if limiting stakes is the answer, some people bet those figures and you'd be taking away their right to do so. I think restricting opening hours would help a lot. I'd say 80% of those I've encountered who, shall we say, don't have full comprehension of their means operate outside of what you'd believe to be a bookmaker's standard trading hours. Maybe move the smaller stake games prominent, with a high roller section offering more prominent warnings over problem gambling. Maybe limit the amount of numbers that can be covered, or lengthen a cool-off period between spins. Reduction or pulling of FOBTs will result in shops being shut and honest people losing jobs, not because they have to, but because they've said they have to and the blame can be shifted. While we're on the subject of true odds I'll share what I believe to be a bigger scourge of the modern day betting shop. Virtual Racing. Basically events consisting of cartoon horses, dogs, cars even football matches. Right firstly there are far too many of these. Today there are 177 virtual events here. 68 of these had been "run" before the first real event at around 11am! These go through as lottery events and take pounds off punters that could be put towards real events and furthermore the levy. Now if they are lottery events this means there is an equal chance of any given result. So if I take the 106 at Portman Park, a 15 "runner" event, the true odds of each "horse" is 14/1. So how is the favourite Too Hot to Trot in at 9/2, a full 9 and half points short, and Twilight Read 66/1, how has drawing number 3 got a 16.69% better chance of winning than drawing number 14?
So in summary, my world has been broken by virtual events taking over real ones, I've made attempt to move departments, not only to continue to enjoy my career, but also to put my skillset to best use. Sadly the door isn't open, or at least it hasn't proven so for me. Will the single manning change? Who knows, I very much doubt it. Will FOBTs improve? That depends on the campaigns and what they fight for. The advice I'd offer is only punch your weight. Start gently, I think there has been some quite heavy handed anti-FOBT tactics. If I break it down gently, in warfare when you hit an opponent, they'll hit you back, as hard if not harder, when this opponent is more powerful! than you then it's often a bad idea. Yet if you can get to the table with the generals of the other side and discuss your issues then sometimes a middle ground can be found. The bookmakers are going to defend their key product to the hilt, and so would you if it was yours. What you have to do is detail, with facts not slurs, what you believe wrong. If necessary they'll make the adjustments. As I've said before maybe the consumer can be better informed of the product they are buying into, most won't listen, but we could certainly help those willing to. Do I still love my job? Yes, I get paid to watch, discuss, demonstrate and sell my passion, I'm not in love with my employer but I'm sure we'll work it out. Would I prefer to work elsewhere in the industry? Yes, my skillset would be much better put to data, odds, stats something numerical anyway. Can The industry as we knew it be saved? I don't think so, as I said at the top, my world is broken, it's changed, a completely different world. But the same can be said of the one outside the doors to. I'm not sure how this will read back, I've pretty much written it freestyle and will publish as such. I hope you like it and I'd be happy to discuss any points you agree/disagree with.
Thanks for reading.

R.I.P Andrew Iacovou, robbed of life whilst merely carrying out duties of the job that he, like me, was no doubt passionate about.

Wednesday 29-5-13

Morning all, yet again a poor day. Like I said yesterday I'm downsizing. I'll miss winners for sure, but I'll also avoid all these losers I'm backing. I have just 1 today, hopefully it can come on.

220 CARTMEL - THINGS CHANGE

Meets Discovery Bay on the same terms as when beaten 2 lengths at Wetherby in March, didn't appear to come on for the run next time out at Kelso, but that was on better ground. I'm hoping that the return to a softer surface might bring about a squeak of improvement, and I'm not having a Brian Ellison horse at odds-on! Sure official figures suggest that DB is the better horse but I'm playing to hope that TC lives up to his name and Things do indeed Change. Tissue is 2/1, machine trading a little higher, i'd suggest anything 9/4 or bigger is a bit of value.

Good Luck

Tuesday 28-5-13

Morning, a dissapointing day yesterday with a horrendous number of seconds! I'm trying to trim down the amount of selections, mostly I just don't really have the time anymore to really put everything in. I have more today than I was expecting but hopefully it can reward.

LEICESTER

230 INGLEBY ROYALE
300 PYTHAGOREAN
330 BURNHAM
500 BIG THUNDER

REDCAR

310 SKYFIRE
440 RANGI

LINGFIELD

620 ANGEL WAY
820 ITALIAN RIVIERA
850 SRNAGAR GIRL

YARMOUTH

640 CLEAR PEARL
710 CRUISER
810 QUADRIGA

BALLINROBE

700 REBEL FITZ

Good Luck and Happy Punting

Monday 27-5-13

Morning all, Computer/internet was playing up yesterday so I didn't blog. Back today though on a less busy than usual bank holiday, although the quality doesn't increase sadly. The best racing today, 8 weeks into the flat season, is over jumps at Cartmel!!!

WINDSOR

215 ROCK UP
320 CHEWOREE
355 KING OF JAZZ
500 THE SCUTTLER
530 TINSHU

LEICESTER

225 SECONDO
510 PLAYBILL
540 SPANISH PLUME

CARTMEL

230 CAPE EXPLORER
515 WAKE YOUR DREAMS

CARLISLE

315 MEY BLOSSOM
350 TUSSIE MUSSIE
420 SHADOWTIME

REDCAR

400 ESHTIBAAK
430 NORDIKHAB
535 MEDIEVAL BISHOP

BALLINROBE

600 SALHOODA
630 ACTION MASTER
700 ENCHANTED FOREST
730 CALL ME BUBBLES

Good Luck

Saturday 25-5-13

Morning all, Got lots of selections today, yesterday was horrid, nothing to get excited about at all.

YORK

150 OUR JONATHAN
220 ILE DE RE
255 BOSUN BREEZE
400 SIRVINO
435 PEARL BRIDGE
510 KIWI BAY

GOOWOOD

205 BOOM AND BUST
305 MOLDOWNEY
335 FLYMAN
405 BANA WU

HAYDOCK

210 PEARL NATION
240 VAN PERCY
315 BALTIC KNIGHT
350 SOLE POWER
420 MY SON MAX
530 REDVERS

CHESTER

230 STAR LAHIB
340 HALSTATT
450 MARTIAL ART
520 GABRIALS WAWA

CURRAGH

245 HITCHENS
320 GALE FORCE TEN
355 LILY'S ANGEL

FFOS LAS

715 WATERUNDER
745 KILCOMMON PRIDE

CARTMEL

800 DARE ME
835 PALUS SAN MARCO
905 FLYING DOCTOR

Good Luck and Happy Punting