Welcome to the blog of day 1's horseracingtavern.com twitter tipster challenge winner. I shall decide what to do with my £20 free bet soon, not today though as nothing jumps out of the page at me as worthwile.
Todays selections will follow then I have the best 3 bets for the NFL season opener tonight, they shall be at the bottom if you wish to skip straight there.
I advise the usual 1pt per horse and 0.5pt RFC where viable. + i shall add some multiples at the bottom and advise stakes. Yesterdays lucky broke even, although where i live everywhere pays treble odds so i made a profit. Also please excuse any typos that i may miss, my son is sat on my lap, and it likes to kick the keyboard!
DONCASTER
125 A tricky loking nursery for fillies. I've sided with ROGER SEZ, she won a similar race to this at HQ back in July but too runs since, up in class, have shown that she is screaming out for further. Connections have responded with the step up to 7 and I think that will suit. She found them too quick at York, but no disgrace in who she was beaten by at Ripon last time, this looks much easier to win and combined with the longer trip, we should get the day off to a flyer.
155 John Oxx's ALANZA WINNER 11/4 travels over in fine form, she has beaten some very good horses and the form of her two listed wins has been boosted a number of times already. The big danger for me is Luca Cumani's Seta who is unbeaten from 3 starts at this trip. I'd suggest a bet on each and a little reverse forecast.
225 A good looking 2yo race here. I'm looking for a bit of value and I think I've found it in Ralph Becketts MOON PEARL. All 3 behind him in his Ascot maiden have gone on to run well and I fancied him to have a go last time in Group 3 company. He was well beaten that day, but was always playing catch up after a tardy start. He finished 8th at York behind the very good Entifaadha and that race is already looking like a good one. the 4th has won a listed race, the 9th (5l behind MP) finished 3rd to Mehdi in a valuable stakes race, and the horse that finished 11th has gone out and won a decent race in Ireland. Moon Pearl is hugely overpriced and doesn't need to find a lot to improve on last times run. Massive Each way value and hopefully a win.
300 The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is by far the best race of the day. For me it's a 3 horse race and the layers have got them right. If Micheal Bell's Set to Music continues this upward curve at the same rate, she should grow wings and fly by the end of the year. She takes weight from the older horses and deserves to be high in the betting. My concern is that this is another step up in class and trip and maybe might be a bit for her to find. Meeznah warrants respect as she has rushed hooves with the best fillies and mares over her career and was a game winner of the Lillie Langtry at Goowood. She struggled in the Freer against the boys last time but when you consider the first 2 are among the leading fancies for the big one on Saturday I think we just throw that race out of the window. Although all being said my idea of the winner is Dermot Weld's SENSE OF PURPOSE. She proved very game 2 starts ago to hold off Bob Le Beau in a listed contest at Leopardstown. That was about 100yards shorter than today. She is the one you'd take most to get the trip and she has suffered defeat twice this year. Most recently to Group 1 winner Banimpire and the time before was her first race of the season on what can only be described as mud at Navan in a listed race containing a horse called Fame and Glory. The winner will come from the 3 I've mentioned and I hope it's the one I've sided with, although Set to Music would be a very popular winner.
335 A maiden, I don't usually bet on them but I make an exception for big festivals or if certain breeding patterns have a spell of form. One I like here is PERENNIAL WINNER 12/1. A colt by motivator out of a useful dam by all accounts. Half Brother Redwood has tasted group 1 success. This one looks like he will gobble up this trip and Khalid Abdullah could see his colours at the winning post for a second year on the bounce.
410 Yuk, a 22 runner handicap. These take up far too much of my time for very little reward, so i've glanced at the card. There has been money for PRAVDA STREET this morning and it looks well treated against rivals, so I'm going with the EBOR winning team of Ellison and Swift.
440 BURJ NAHAR. Been off colour since his tremendous comeback run after a year and a half off. However my tip for this is that Frankie rides him. Not only is there a choice of 3 from Godolphin, Frankie has often been given permission to ride Jeremy Noseda's Club Oceanic, today ridden by Jamie Spencer, even when they have entries in the race.
Others
CHEPSTOW
205 SILVAS ROMANA / ROOKNRASPBERRYRIPPE
EPSOM
320 WHITBY JET
355 KINGS BAYONET
WOLVERHAMPTON
640 ROODEE QUEEN
810 FRANCIS ALBERT
840 GHUFA
Don't forget Laytown runs today. It's good fun to watch the horses on the beach. Not a betting event though. However in the maiden there is one called Hot Sand, that has to be worth a quid.
Multiples :
0.5pt E/w Lucky 15 : Roger Sez, Moon Pearl, Pravda Street, Burj Nahar
5pt Double : Alanza, Sense of Purpose
2pt Trixie (8pts total) : Silvas Romana, Francis Albert, Ghufa
Good luck with them.
Total Placed 45ptsTotal Returns 16.75pts
We are minus 44pts so far this month but it will come back. Don't panic. Some housekeeping to do on results, and I will do that when I get a bit of time.
NFL
Tonight sees the NFL kickoff with The New Orleans Saints travelling to The Green Bay Packers. I am having 3 bets on this match.
1. New Orleans (Point Spread). 10pts @ 10/11 +4.5 Sky, VC, PP, Bwin, Coral
It will be a very tight game and likely solved by a field goal. Neither side has mustered up much of a winning margin in Pre season, not of worth anyway, and therefore I have to side with the team with a positive figure.
2. Total Points under. 10pts @ 10/11 under 48 Bet365, Boylesport
I think this mark is just a smidge too high, my number crunching came up with 44.5 so I've got 3.5 pts leeway, which could be the winning field goal ;-)
3. Highest scoring quarter. Q2, 5pts @ 7/4 Sky bet
Both sides done most damage in Q2 during preseason, with GB getting 35% and NO 39% of total points in Q2, effectively the price is a tiny bit high, and therefore value.
Finally, in the RWC, yesterday I spotted that V Goneva has an 80% try to cap rate for Fiji yet was 25/1 for top Fiji tryscorer, i put it up on twitter and I hope some of you got on, as now the best you'll find is 10's. I have to thank the Racing Post for their fantastic pullout which i think will find us a lot of money over the next couple of weeks.
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