Cheltenham Day 1

The Festival kicks off as always with the famous roar sending the Novices off in the Supreme. So that is obviously where I shall start.

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE


My money has been down for a long time on Jessica Harrington's STEPS TO FREEDOM. The 6yo Gelding has really shown a propensity to Hurdling, unbeaten in 3 starts, putting away some fancied sorts at the time. The form hasn't been franked too highly but the race trends are generally positive, and the way he clipped up the hill to land the Grade 2 sharps hurdle back in November was really game. The trainer stated then that he would be put away until this race. DARLAN is many peoples favourite, but for me bridle monkeys rarely get the job done at Cheltenham. If you need somebody to literally carry your horse up the hill then of course AP is certainly your man, but I'm just not sure if the horse has enough and if the price sinks to 2/1 or shorter I'd be more than comfortable laying him. Also negative for him is that only 3, 5yo have won this versus 7 of their elders. One to possibly chuck in at a price is Dermot Weld's GALLILEO'S CHOICE, only Sous Les Cieux has beaten him under NH code, who himself may well make an appearance in this blog down the line. Blue Square and Paddy go 8/1 for this chap, I know a lot bigger was available until recently. The Key Stats are 6or7yo, Irish Bred, Irish Trained. Those 2 fit the bill nicely. Staking, hmm,
STEPS TO FREEDOM 10pts WIN @ 7/1 (Stan James, Coral, Blue Square)
GALILEO'S CHOICE   2.5pts E/W @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James)

RACING POST ARKLE


Over the years favourites and the Arkle haven't seen eye to eye. Aiming to buck the trend this year is Nicky Henderson's SPRINTER SACRE. The problem I have with this one is he has been asked for an effort 3 times, initially he got home in his bumper, but the second time he was turned over by Fracati Park at Ascot, and the third times was up the hill in last years Spureme Novice, granted he made a small error at the last which allowed himself to be headed but AL FEROF left him behind under a typically well timed Ruby Walsh ride. I cannot be having the favourite at odds on, personally I think that is insulting to the other horses entered. My main fancy is Nicholls' AL FEROF. He jumps beautifully and the hill will pose no problem for him as evidenced last year. Last time out he was beaten by Somersby, who on his day has pushed Master Minded, and Finians Rainbow, at a time when Mr Nicholls horses generally run a little below form. CUE CARD is an interesting one in this race, he was the supposed hotpot for the supreme last year and never did the business, I don''t know if he's good enough for this, he most likely isn't, but he will ensure that there is a pace on and that could play into the hands of MENORAH. Much has been made of Phillip Hobbs' geldings jumping. However he hasn't actually been given a true test in a true field. With a bit of clip in the race it could well bring the best out in him and with a fluent round Dickie Johnson will put him right there at the business end.
So how do we stake this race.
AL FEROF 10pts WIN @ 5/2 (widely available)
MENORAH 1.5pts E/W @ 10/1 (Victor Chandler)

JLT STEEPLECHASE HANDICAP


Not really a race to get to involved in until the day. I'll just put up some that look like they have every chance of being in the race.

TULLAMORE DEW 1pt E/W @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
ZARRAFAKT 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)
BLENHEIM BROOK 1pt E/W @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)

To remember for the day, top 5 weights have struggled, no runner aged 11 or over has ever won, another Favourite graveyard. Most winners of this finished top 3 lto, Irish Bred horses tend to do well. 7 or 8 seem to be the magic ages.

CHAMPION HURDLE


HURRICANE FLY will win this doing cartwheels, even following the trends 6 to 8 year olds, that win last time out and have Festival form and come in with a run within 2 months prior. I've narrowed it down to the top 3 in the betting. The betting is right. I really can't think what to say, the FLY is a class act, handles the hill and is believedly in better nick than last year. Pick BINOCULAR or ZARKANDAR for the Forecast on the day.
Stake
HURRICANE FLY 50pts WIN @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP


I'm unoriginal but I cannot look past Willie Mullins' SCOTSIRISH. The Irish trainers will dominate this, there is very little point backing anything trained in England, no matter how speculatively. I feel the selection would have comfortably won last time he contested a X-Country event here at Cheltenham but for the leaders all taking the wrong course. GARDE CHAMPETRE would be a popular winner but I feel his days are pretty much numbered and the main challenge should come from stablemate UNCLE JUNIOR and last years winner SIZING AUSTRALIA.
But just go in
SCOTSIRISH 20pts WIN @ 3/1 (William Hill)

OLBG MARES HURDLE


Right, essentially the trend for this race is, if your name is QUEVEGA you have a very good chance of winning, as she has won 3/5 runnings of the event! She will be many peoples banker of the Festival and she will be our biggest bet of the first day at least! As for the places, Dermot Weld's UNACCOMPANIED should seal second, but third is up for grabs, and I'd put it down to 1 of the 3 old rivals VIOLIN DAVIS, KENTFORD GREY LADY or OUR GIRL SALLEY. The former represents the current value so we'll side there.
QUEVEGA 100pt WIN @ 4/7 (William Hill)
VIOLIN DAVIS 2pt E/W @ 16/1

PULTENEY LAND NOVICES HANDICAP


Another race that's hardly Antepost gold, and best to see what lines up on the day.
But initially I like Ferdy Murphy's GOING WRONG, could be a festival winner for Lucy Alexander, and Venetia's NICEONEFRANKIE, although Aidan Coleman is already jocked on CARRICKBOY.
Hold your stakes for the day.

So to top the day off we can have a
TREBLE

HURRICANE FLY
QUEVEGA
SCOTSIRISH
10pt @ 11.3 with William Hill

Total Spend = 218pts
Return = 159

Hope you enjoyed reading. Day 2 will be posted tomorrow evening, hopefully.