Cheltenham Day 2

Right after smashing up Day 1, we get a rest financially. Much more tentative staking today.

DIAMOND JUBILEE NH CHASE CUP


HARRY THE VIKING leads the market here, and with good reason too, he just keeps winning his races. He doesn't rip fields to shreds and win by lengths, he doesn't even look that comfortable when on the bridle, but he does get his nose in front when it counts, a couple of races he's been beat, and still got back up and won, that willingness to get there will hold him in good stead for a race like this, BUT, I'm going to take him on with Rebecca Curtis' TEAFORTHREE. In my opinion this one looks like he will stay all day. The only real blot on his copybook was from his race with the great GRAND CRUS where something clearly went wrong, as shown when he dispatched a small field with ease on his next run. He also ran down JOIN TOGETHER just to be held off by about a length a few starts further back. You will see both of those mentioned further down this page. One I'll put up each way is Lucinda Russell's BLENHEIM BROOK. This one is entered into the JLT, this race and the Kim Muir, I think wherever they send him he has a big chance of making the frame and at around 25's it is worth the risk, especially as most firms are NRNB now.

TEAFORTHREE 5pts E/W @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet Fred, Totesport)
BLENHEIM BROOK 1pt E/W @ 25/1

NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE


Often one of the most open of the big races at the festival, favourites don't have the best of times as a rule, which could be bad news for followers of Nicky Henderson's SIMONSIG. Personally I like the horse. He is a very nice looking individual and has no end of stamina. My worry for him is if he comes across something that can throw some pace into the ring at the death like FINGAL BAY did to him, on that occasion he found little off the bridle after travelling like a winner from a long way out. Willie Mullins SOUS LES CIEUX makes decent appeal at 8/1 (B365). I think he will relish the step up in trip. BOSTON BOB and MONKSLAND have the danger of the ground being too quick for them having only really raced on soft or worse and Cheltenham generally holds out as Good to Soft. BATONNIER for Alan King looks in good nick having landed a C&D Grade 2 in January beating the very good BROADBACKBOB in the process. That man Mullins has another very good one in MAKE YOUR MARK. This one looked very very very impressive on his first two starts before struggling in the mud behind BOSTON BOB lto. He will prefer the quicker ground.
The best chance of a very rare British Bred winner of this race is John Ferguson's COTTON MILL. John Ferguson has really taken the NH world by storm sending his well bred middle distance flat horses over the sticks. If he doesn't have a winner over the festival I will be shocked. His Grade 2 Warwick win was given a nice boost yesterday by the impressive AMBION WOOD.
What do we bet in this?

SOUS LES CIEUX 5pts E/W @ 8/1 (Bet 365)
BATONNIER 5pts E/W @ 8/1
MAKE YOUR MARK 5pts EW @ 10/1
If one of these wins profit, or 2 of them place.
COTTON MILL 2.5pts E/W @ 16/1 (shortened from 20)

RSA CHASE


GRAND CRUS. Does he go here or the Gold Cup. I'm guessing the decision will be made as late as possible to keep everyone guessing. The smart move would be to stay in this and win. But the owners would love their colours in the showpiece. If he's good enough then run him the Gold Cup. Long Run is not a fluent jumper, Kauto is still touch and go to run at all, why not? I'm hoping he does go to the Gold Cup because my biggest winner of the festival Antepost is JOIN TOGETHER. He isn't without his quirks, he went wrong in the Bartlett last year, and fell on chase debut this season, but he has gotten it together to beat TEAFORTHREE and then lto he destroyed 2 very good animals in MOSSLEY and CHAMPION COURT. It is very likely that he will be Ruby's ride for this race, at least I do hope so. You can still get 7/1 from Paddy Power and Boylesports and provided you get on before final decs there will be no Rule 4 if Grand Crus does get lifted. I'll be honest I can't see too much getting close to these two.

JOIN TOGETHER 10pts E/W @ 7/1 (Paddy Power, Boylesports)

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE


This race is really quite open. The SIZING EUROPE / BIG ZEB rivalry continues. But SIZING put ZEB away quite comfortably in Ireland last time out. The Arkle winner generally does well in this race but CAPTAIN CHRIS is Gold Cup bound so therefore FINIANS RAINBOW has to be thrown into the equation. My worry with FR though is that he hasn't won at the Festival despite being well fancied. SIZING EUROPE would be a rare winner into double figures of age. I might take a chance with SOMERSBY, although he has yet to win in 4 visits to Cheltenham, which is worrying. I'm not going heavy on this race. SIZING and ZEB are the class but trends suggest they are getting old. FINIANS is expensive to follow, so why not just have a play at the value.

SOMERSBY 5pts E/W @ 8/1

CORAL CUP


This is a very open race, and best to study on the day. It pays to be lower down the weights as only one winner has carried more than 11-3. Generally they need to have shown winning form within the last few races.  5 to 7 year olds have the best record and the market is a useful guide with 70% of winners coming from the top 6 in the betting. Each way players shouldn't be put off though as the last 3 winners have been 14,14 and 16. Breeding wise French Bred horses tend to do very well far exceeding a level par for winners. I will wait until the day for my final choices but no harm in nicking a price early is there?

MOLOTOF 1pt E/W @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler, Coral)
TENOR NIVERNAIS 1pt E/W @ 33/1

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE


Another race that's best left until decs are announced. As a guide good flat horses have done well in the past, also Fillies have a good record as do French Bred Horses. VENDOR is the current favourite, and while he is very good he does have a propensity to err. I'm not going to bet a penny on this race until Wednesday but two I'd like to see line up are KAZLIAN and JACKIES SOLITAIRE. Available at 14 and 33 respectively if you did fancy a bite.KAZLIAN looks very progressive with much more to give, I think he will turn into another very good thing for David Pipe. And JS for the impressive Anthony Honeyball is a game filly she has competed admirably in some very good races, 3rd to BABY MIX who is fancied for the Triumph 2 starts ago then almost upset the very good ALASI last time out. Her jockey Rachael Green is a very good horseman (horseperson?) she is patient and reads races and her horses very very well and I would love to see her and Anthony given the credit they deserve for a fantastic operaton on the biggest stage at Cheltenham.

CHAMPION BUMPER


Generally 4yo don't do well, the Irish do, and you have to look for the ones that have won a proper bumpy bumper with a large field of runners. The Warren Greatrex pair of CHAIN REACTOR and CIRCULAR QUAY could well be interesting at big prices. Also I have a decent bit on POPULATION from John Ferguson although it looks as though NEW YEARS EVE has surpassed that one as stable first choice for the race. Also Willie Mullins is likely to have a strong hand and beware that Ruby will ride the second string as Patrick Mullins will be given first choice for this race. Also Jessica Harrington's JEZKI looked very good in Ireland last time out. THE NEW ONE from the Twiston Davies' won a nice event last time as well. Have a bet on the day, and keep your eyes peeled on twitter for a tip from Clive @kingofbumpers, he is truly what it says on the tin. Good Luck

There is 81pts to waste on here, hopefully we'll get some back on Wednesday.
Day 3 will be done as soon as possible.