Morning, an abysmal day for the blog yesterday, the NAP/NB both came in though so hopefully systematic punters came out okay. Aintree starts today, historically I've done okay at Aintree. Not in the National itself, in fact I think Don't Push It is the only winner of the race I've ever backed, but overall I tend to do okay. I'm just going to jot a few thoughts down then you'll get my lists as usual.
1400 LIVERPOOL HURDLE
Not too much to write here really, I don't see any point in trying to take on BIG BUCKS, and with the "dead 8" in effect you'll struggle to get any sort of sizeable Each Way bet on. SMAD PLACE did enough at Cheltenham to suggest he's the best shout for a forecast, and you'll probably get somewhere between 4/6-evens on that eventuality and it's probably the best bet.
1435 MATALAN JUVENILE HURDLE
Nicholls and Walsh won this race last year, and in my eyes have the strongest hand again today with PEARL SWAN. There is no doubt that the yard was not having the best of times at Cheltenham yet this one proved to be an eyecatcher when staying on only to fall, having been struggling for quite a way.
1505 BETFRED BOWL CHASE
RIVERSIDE THEATRE is the one to beat, and I believe it to be possible, he has only tried 3m once and got beat, albeit by Long Run, but this is further and there are horse who have gotten the trip. I kept trying to find an argument for MEDERMIT because I like the horse, but I think RT has his measure. I'm going with BURTON PORT who ran Long Run very close at Newbury before a decent run in the Gold Cup where essentially he just failed to get home. This trip is slighty shorter than the GC and potentially easier to win. I think Burton just has the experience to get there and the leg up for AP is surely a positive wherever you are. I've had a little niggling all morning for DIAMOND HARRY, so I've backed him each way at 16/1. I don't think he'll win, maybe not even second but if he runs his race and one or two others don't 16/1 could look massive.
1540 JOHN SMITHS FOXHUNTER CHASE
GWANAKO is head and shoulders the best horse in this, but one thing bothers me, since winning here in the Topham in 2008, he has failed to complete on each return. Horses are very intelligent animals and he'll soon realise where he is. MY WAY DE SOLZEN looked very competent when landing a hunter at Hereford last year, and it wold appear he's been pretty prolific on the pointing scene also. I'd take him to win if he's fit and ready. I've had a couple of Each Way bets, I thought Lucy Wadham's ELEAZAR ran well behind Barbers Shop at Fakenham but made a couple of mistakes in this class at Cheltenham. I'm not sure this is as strong as the Cheltenham version and we could well get a run for our money. Also FRESH AIR AND FUN impressed me last time out, and hasn't been unplaced in a hunter chase to date. He also ran 5th here in a Grand Sefton and that could provide useful experience of the fences.
1615 RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE
A very open race, it tends to do you well to look at the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and carry any form over, I've had each way bets on the horses that finished 6th and 7th in that race, DE BOITRON and ASTRACAD, but nothing would surprise me winning this that is how open it looks.
1650 BETFRED MANIFESTO NOVICES CHASE
A 5 runner affair but for me the most interesting race of the day, throw a blanket over the runners you'll not get a lot sticking out. AL FEROF has the edge in the ratings war, 1 mistake in the Arkle finished his race, but he'll have more room for error here, hopefully he won't make any though. He is my win bet and I'm leaving it at that. I'd expect Ruby to put him out front and try to put the field to bed with a superior round of jumping. 2 with the potential to really show up as stars in this are CRYSTAL BONUS and PEPITE ROSE, the former was progressing nicely until an abcess forced him to pull up in the Jewson. The latter could be anything, she has just cantered through her races and up the rankings and we have no idea truly how good she'll be until she has a race, she'll get one today. MENORAH I think needs a quick race, and he might get one here, jumping has let him down but like i said earlier there is more room for error in this than a frantic Arkle. ALASI showed up very well when placed behind Quevega in the mares race at Cheltenham. She will
enjoy the trip but has a bit to find with these, although has every right to progress as required.
1715 SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE
GULLINBURSTI is the favourite here, but Emma Lavelles charge is rising in weights and classes despite not winning last twice. OUR FATHER from David Pipe didn't show up as expected at Cheltenham and I think is worth another try on what he has achieved. My Each Way bet is HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, granted he has it all to do from this mark, but will enjoy the ground and the fact that Aidan Coleman (who incidentally is red hot at present) has chosen to ride this one drags my attention.
Right todays lists.
TREBLE
TERFEL'S TOSCAR 1745 N.A NAP
BURTON PORT 1505 AIN NB
TO THE SKY 1740 GOW
LUCKY 15
LADWEB 1410 FOL
NICKY NUTJOB 1420 N.A
REFERENT 1455 N.A
FORTY PROOF 2055 WOL
AINTREE
1400 BIG BUCKS
1430 PEARL SWAN
1505 BURTON PORT
1540 MY WAY DE SOLZEN
1615 ASTRACAD
1650 AL FEROF
1725 OUR FATHER
FOLKESTONE
1410 LADWEB
1445 POSEIDON GREY
1520 DARK AGES
1555 CURZON LANE
1630 MARCUS ANTONIUS
1705 DUBAI GLORY
1735 DISTURBIA
NEWTON ABBOT
1420 NICKY NUTJOB
1455 REFERENT
1530 CARRIGMORNA KING
1605 BE ASHORED
1640 SMALL FLY
1715 OVER THE CREEK
1745 TERFEL'S TOSCAR
GOWRAN PARK
1600 SOOHAAD
1635 QUEENS CLIFF
1710 SECRET HERO
1740 TO THE SKY
1810 UN HINGED
1840 FORGOT TO CALL
1910 COIN OF COURAGE
1940 KING HIGH
WOLVERHAMPTON
1755 MY NAME IS SAM
1825 HOLDEN EAGLE
1855 STAND GUARD
1925 MY DESTINATION
1955 MUNSARIM
2025 LEGAL LEGACY
2055 FORTY PROOF
FOOTY
Not an exciting night tonight I have BTTS on Sundsvall v Syrianska and OVERS on Elfsborg v Norkopping
both in the Swedish league.
GOLF
HERITAGE HANDICAP
B. DAVIS
B. GAY
R. BARNES
Good Luck and Happy Punting
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