Well, that wasn't quite the start of the month that I was had envisaged. Although it would have been much different if Present To You (beaten a hd @14/1) had held on. Never mind, today is a new day. Big Bucks was great, and I did give you the forecast there. Also the 1st 2 in the Hennessey were all in the 6 I pointed out so my system isn't entirely fractured. I was watching closely yesterday and I think I've learnt a few new tricks which have been added in today. A quality card awaits at Fairyhouse, and it's very difficult to look past Willie Mullins who has over 50% SR in the last fortnight. I'll have a little look at the races for you as, everyone in my house is still asleep, I've a bit of time. Then I'll pop up some selections at the 2 English meetings, pretty much just alert horses who have a chance, although I did rate 1 race over here. I'll jst nip to make a coffee then I'll crack on.
FAIRYHOUSE
1235 JUVENILE HURDLE
Favourite Our Conor beat a pretty ordinary field on debut in this sphere and for me is too short based on that. He went off incredibly short that day and was a fair performer on the flat, so I'm not saying he's a bad horse, just I'm happy to take him on at the prices. Dayrina needs some to find on OC but did improve for the run. I still have him some way off here though. South South West has been kept going all summer and has won over hurdles, on flat and the all weather in the last 3 months, that's pretty impressive achievment and more importantly shrewd placement from connections. The jockey booking of Paul Townend jumps off the page here too and would be well worth a play at the price. Stocktons Wing came on for his debut in this sphere by landing second time out. He'll love the cut in the ground and is a huge player here. But my selection rests with BROG DEAS. Technically he has a bit to find with a formline running through Everything Zain, but that was his debut and he did improve for his second run. He won't be hindered by the soft ground and at a current best 5.5 (9/2) he looks to be value to me. So get your money on and if he wins perhaps you could treat the missus to some Brog Deas, she'd be chuffed.
105 GRADE 1 NOVICE HURDLE
For a Grade 1 this doesn't look much competition for me. I like Jessie Harrington's Jezki, but I don't think he's in the same class as CHAMPAGNE FEVER. I could be wrong, I quite often am. The bookies have Minsk close up too, but I think he wants further than this, the ground should make it a test but still I see the main 2 being involved. The selection is looking for a 5th successive win and the others will have to bring something special to the table to prevent that. Willie Mullins second horse Zuzka looks overpriced, it's a big step up for her, but she gets a bit of weight of the boys and that could tell in this ground. We'll see.
135 GRADE 1 NOVICE CHASE
A 2/3 horse race. Buckers Bridge has done what he's needed to date, with little fuss, but a step up is needed today. Arvika Legionairre has walked over weaker fields the last twice, coupled with minor franking of that form and the yard form he has to be taken very seriously. My money, however, rests with the favourite. DEDIGOUT hails from the yard that won this race last year, he was a top, top hurdler last year and made absolute mincemeat of his rivals on debut in this code. I can see this horse getting to the top of the chasing game too and looks a fair bet at odds against here.
205 HANDICAP CHASE
A competitive handicap, my top 3 are
OUR GIRL SALLEY, Rising Time, Quiet Thought
The selection comes back down in class after finding one far too good last time out, she has 3lb back from her qtr length conquerer 2 starts ago and looks to have a decent opening here.
240 GRADE 1 HATTONS GRACE HURDLE
Another 2 horse race, the super mare Voler La Vedette and her Galmoy hurdle conquerer from January ZAIDPOUR . VLV has a bit to prove here after a poor show by her lofty standards on reappearance, but she's not getting younger, she may well have just needed the run. Both horses won't be too worried about the ground, and there really isn't a lot between them. If VLV does run as poor as last time then the selection will have an easy time of it, but if she runs to her best then it will be a very close thing, the jockeys will be crucial and with as little disrespect to Andrew Lynch as possible, because I think him a very capable pilot, he's no Ruby Walsh. The jockey, stable, head 2 heads and value all point to Zaidpour in my opinion.
310 HANDICAP CHASE
Another cracking betting event, my top 3 are
GIVE US A HAND, Murchu, Tarquinius
My selection is weighted pretty highly on the jockey, and the fact that he should, if everything goes to plan, be chasing a treble here. The ground may be slightly against the selection here, but Ruby gave him a decent ride last time they worked together and that run suggested the step up in trip would suit. It hasn't to date but I'm guessing that's why they jumped at the chance to book up Ruby again.
LEICESTER
1250 WYCHWOODS BROOK
150 GUYDUS
225 TARA ROSE
255 CAULFIELDS VENTURE
KEMPTON
200 DEFINITELY GOLD
235 MAKARI
305 FEATHER IN THE ATTIC
Good Luck and Happy Punting
I'll tweet my NFL bets at sometime before 6pm
No comments:
Post a Comment