Hello, greetings, good morning. The lucky last rung true yesterday as Martin Harley burst his charge through the pack to land me a winner, SP 20/1, EP 25. It was an advised bet too so fully appreciated that one. Where I wasn't hugely confident yesterday I am a bit more confident today. I have 2 advised bets, both elsewhere, and they will tag on the bottom.
230 ALBANY STAKES
The showpiece 2yo fillies race for me, the winner of this will most likely become an early fancy for next years 1000 guineas. Now, Sandiva has the best form in the book, Royal Ascot is crying out for a Frankie winner to complete the fairytale that this week is fast becoming. She's short enough for me to let her win. Joyeuse would be another very poignant winner for the Cecil team, especially as she's a half sister to their megastar Frankel. For me she'll need to be a lot more forward now than on debut, which chances are she will be, or she could find this race getting away from her. There's no doubting the ability is there, but the same as the rest of the family the attitude is questionable. My main bet is for KIYOSHI. She began life in that Newmarket maiden that gave us Queen Mary winner Rizeena. She came on nicely for that run to pull away with a maiden over this trip at Goodwood. I also like the other Qatar racing entrant RACE HUNTER, I backed her on debut (because of the Street Cry connection) and she was pretty impressive. Johnny Murtagh bagged a winner for the owners on Tuesday and could well do so again. Finally WEDDING RING. Oh how Godolphin would like a winner here this week, it would certainly raise their spirits. This little lady enters under Saeed Bin Suroors watchful eye but sits in the controversial Moulton Paddocks. For the team at Moulton Paddocks a Royal Ascot winner would be just what the doctor ordered, they work hard and are extremely passionate about their jobs, for such a dark shadow to be cast over them is not nice, and certainly not easy. I'm aware that the yard are pretty keen on this one. She put up nice figures in the Newmarket maiden won by last years winner Newfangled and can certainly make the step up here.
305 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
This is a weak Group 2, the favourite Battle of Marengo should, could, is able to, win this on the bridle. Honestly I couldn't have put up any of these as a banker for yesterdays Group 3 Tercentenary, in fact the winner of that could have been arguably put up to win this. But again, I'm not backing something at 8/11 to win at Royal Ascot, what's the point? Granted that's probably value, the horse came 4th in the Derby for goodness sake! I'm going to put up an each way. THA'IR. He is a festival winner, which counts for a lot here. Last time out over 10f he just failed to pull in the game Hoarding, he ran no race yesterday though, but arguably another 50 yards and he could have probably gone past. So by New Approach, the step up to 12 could suit and dams side confirms as Dam's half sister went close in the Ribblesdale. I think he's a solid price for a claim in a weak race.
345 CORONATION STAKES
In my opinion, this is THE race of the festival. It is so, so, so close. I'll start with the winner, :-p, SKY LANTERN. She is a classy filly, she is already her late sire's greatest achievement, and she'll go on to do even more. Connections have pretty much said that they intend to sweep up the fillies mile events before sending her to have babies. I like her, a lot. She has a wide draw, and the yard isn't in form, but class horses get you out of a hole. And she is a class horse. She fits the trends, has the best form in the book, she's too big a price. But....I'll just suggest as to why this is an excellent race. Just the Judge 2nd in the English Guineas, winner of the Irish, was her win in the Irish Guineas as good as her perfomance in the English, I'd suggest probably not, and therefore I can't have her reverse the form, especially as she is drawn right next to SL. Viztoria, this is a good horse. I backed her on debut for the sole reason that Darshaan is the leading broodmare sire for Oratorio, and she won, at 33/1. She stepped up on that straight away with a listed win and then ran a cracker over in France. She won her comeback race as a 3yo pretty comfortably without too many questions and she looks like she'll find the mile no bother. The 2 juddmonte horses Big Break and Pavlosk are the progressive sorts in the race, although it's proven so far this week that substance over speculation is the key and it's better to back on what you know or have seen, compared to what you have heard. An interesting outsider is Purr Along. Her second to Certify in the May Hill is one of the better bits of form on offer, and she's a Group 3 winner in France. Maybe she's had enough by the time she's got to Longchamp in October and it's pretty tough to make your seasonal reappearance in a race as strong as this.
425 WOLFERTON HANDICAP
I like FATTSOTA here, only 4lb higher than a course win last October, he has positive lines with a few he's reopposing, Jockey will be on a high from achieving first festival winner yesterday. Tricky race, my saver is LABARINTO.
500 QUEENS VASE (In Memory of Sir Henry Cecil)
2m for 3yo olds, nothing in this race has gone this far. Right I'll start with the 2/1 favourite. Okay just spotted he's now into 7/4! Where is he going to find the stamina? Okay, I'll refer back where I said that a horse can run any trip, it's how they settle that helps them stay, but... there needs to be some evidence. There is NO stayers down the female line! The stamina argument can only come from the female line of the sire Montjeu, and the female line of the sire isn't where I'd suggest you start looking for stamina. Even when you look at the Montjeu progeny that stayed, Masked Marvel had bags of stamina down the female line, Fame and Glory dam was by a jumps sire, I can't have it. I haven't taken a layers stance this week yet, but this is the one for me. Another reason is the jockey, now Joseph gets a lot of unfair stick because of the hype surrounding the horses he gets to sit on. You only have to look at how he cleaned up the Irish apprentice races when eligible to see he is head and shoulders above his peers and a major talent, but he has come up short when needing to ride a horse for a trip, most notably Camelot in the Leger. I cannot have this favourite at all. So what do we take it on with? I'll tell you, and there won't be a dry eye in the house when Lady Cecil and Tom Queally bring DISCLAIMER into the winners enclosure of the race that's being run in honour of the late, great Sir Henry. Unlike the favourite, a look down the female line shows 14s/15s, jumpers. He hasn't met a lot, but he's done what he's had to do and done it well, getting better each time in the process. I'll give you an each way also, BAIHAS. He looks a horse let me tell you. His Dam Allegretto was a staying machine. Prix Royal Oak, Park Hill, Goodwood Cup, Henry II stakes, all on her CV, she was even a length second in another Royal Oak to the great Yeats. A typical Makhtoum sort in that he isn't very forward but he seems to be getting better, and certainly has looked like getting faster the further he goes. It wouldn't be a shock to me if he won this but I'd rather Disclaimer won, but mark my words this horse could certainly be a Gold Cup winner in the future.
535 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES
Todays Cavalry charge is the Class 2 Buckingham Palace. Before you follow the funny money on Enrol, bear in mind that the last winner of this under double figure odds was in 2005. I've got 4 here from notebooks and a little formline study, I've backed them all each way. None seem really waited out of it, the form of these races you can pretty much make the same sort of cases for any of the contestants so I'll not sit here and blow smoke up your arse. My 4 are CAMPANOLOGY, DREAM TUNE, LOVING SPIRIT and JACK'S REVENGE.
ADVISED BETS
BAR DE LIGNE 330 MARKET RASEN
THE BLACK JACOBIN 855 GOODWOOD
Good Luck and Happy Punting
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