No Wimbledon today so we'll look briefly at the Formula 1. We'll get to that later. Yesterday got off to a slow start but picked up with a vengeance mid-afternoon. We bagged just the seven winners at 8/11 5/2 7/2 4/1 5/1 11/2 and 14/1.
Profit Stats. Saturday +£22.22, Rolling 7 days +£20.02, June +£29.35
(all profit is calculated to a level £1, winnings exclusive of stake)
A "quick" look at the Irish Derby first
350 CURRAGH
Carlton House - Winner of Dante at 1m2f, 3rd in English equivalent at 1m4f. Excuses made on that run but never going pace of winner. For me he needs the ground to keep drying out, I don't think he's a natural stayer and any cut in the ground will hamper. The bookies best friend should be kind again, but not without a chance.
Dunboyne Express - Won 2 group 3's at 6f and 1m, latter on ground similar today. 2 previous Group 1 efforts have found him needing more, for me neither of those efforts over 1m would suggest that he'd want further and possibly the only one I could write off with any confidence. (He'll probably go and win now)
Memphis Tennessee - 2 most recent runs have belied his odds when second to Recital in a Derby trial and then went on to jump the field at Epsom before being headed 200 yards out. Similar tactics could really pay off here with the ground cut to cutting, Watch Memphis Tennessees run in the English Derby than watch Misty for Me beat Midday in the Pretty Polly yesterday. See how it could work.
Native Khan - Very impressive winner of the Craven stakes, and where 3rd and 5th in the 2000 guineas and Derby, to his credit kept going on both occasions when evidently beaten. Given that heart he stands as a big each way chance today. Will be interesting to see if he takes to the ground but seems to have a very steady engine.
Notable Graduate - The real Dark Horse in the field. Winner over Distance on ground similar to this. Maiden win came over 1m4 on yielding ground and was very impressive that occasion, won a better event next time out and narrowly missed out his progressive hattrick last time out. Handles trip and ground but this is a massive step up in class so any confidence is taken on trust.
Roderic O'Connor - The Irish 2000 guineas winner sidestepped the English Derby to tackle the French version, left found wanting for a mile and 2 on soft ground and that run suggests that conditions today will not suit. It seems interesting that Joseph O'Brien rode him to Guineas glory yet takes on Memphis today, (I know he rode Memphis in English Derby) I expect he was given the choice.
Seville - Seville will handle the ground, the trip is the question. The big question to myself is can I afford to get my fingers burnt a third time on him. The little angel on my left shoulder says let him be, the little devil on my right shoulder says he owes you money. In his favour is the number of times an Irish Horse who underperforms in an English classic comes home and lands the Irish version convincingly - see Misty for Me and Roderic O'Connor in the guineas this year as 2 shining examples. Ladbrokes go 7/1 so an each way chance.
Treasure Beach - Should be favourite, Chester Vase form has gone thorugh the roof with his 2nd in the Derby, Slumbers 3rd in the Hampton Court(Tercentenary stakes) and the impressive victory from Nathaniel in the King Edward VII. He will most likely be the first to begin the chase to draw in Memphis Tennessee and as long as he handles the ground(irish trained horses usually have an advantage over english when cut in the ground) then no reason he can't get the jump on market rivals.
Right I'm going to make a decision now.
1. Memphis Tennessee
2. Seville
3. Treasure Beach
1-2-3 Aidan O'Brien
Other Selections Today
CURRAGH
210 Lilbourne Lad - Richard Hughes stated in his RP column that he is coming across to ride this one.
240 Bay Knight - Massive field, anything could happen, should handle ground at big price.
310 Inxile - Class horse in the race, should be too good for these.
430 Top Spin - Should handle ground, stays all day.
500 Penitent - A nice double for Richard Hughes will make the trip worthwile
530 Boynagh Joy - Massively overpriced in a competitve race.
SALISBURY
445 Eureka - Impressive winner at Nottingham on debut, been awaiting reappearance
515 Gatewood - Looked good on debut, should have this his own way
UTTOXETER
420 Ballyvesey - Stable in form, should go trip, big chance at double figure early's
525 Some Catch - Taken on hurdle form in a field of useful chasers.
WINDSOR
400 Guru Girl - Outclassed last time but back down in class should suit today.
435 Guilded Warrior - C&D winner, versatile on various trips and ground, taken as value over favourite.
EUROPEAN GRAND PRIX
I'm just going to tell you what I'm backing, the reason why is that qualifying rules have changed, the cars have to qualify at what ios essentially race pace. I'm taking on Red Bull becasue they needed more laps than any team other than Ferrari to post their best laps. I've taken my selections from those that found their race pace relatively quickly, hopefully it works.
RACE WINNER
Lewis Hamilton (totesport 4/1)
Jenson Button E/w (Victor Chandler 16/1 3 places)
PODIUM FINISH
Jenson Button (Willian Hill 9/4)
Nico Roseberg (widespread 16/1)
POINTS FINISH
Sebastien Buemi (4/1 in places)
Hope you have a good day, good luck and happy punting.
If you fancy winning free money for posting winning tips join the league at OLBG via the link at the top of the page. Also where some tipsters/bloggers will ask for donations for winning tips all I ask is that you support me by clicking an ad from time to time. All links are provided and verified by Google and should be relevant to my blog.
No comments:
Post a Comment