Unfortunately owner/trainer connections of all but 2 horses took the billing of the sussex stakes far too literaly. I'm a little unsure as to why. Yes 1st and 2nd place look to be set out, but, at an original suplement fee of around £3500 whichever horse comes last today will recieve prize money of around £16000. My numbers might be a little off, I'm still quite inexperienced in this game but learning fast, but the ballpark is right and it looks a no brainer to me. The other problem here of course is that with so many people swerving the race, there is less money going in, and the prize money has to come from somewhere. Obviously this will take money from the smaller races, and we will get moans that there is no prize money anymore. It's a vicious circle, you rob Peter to pay Paul, Peter moans, but if he had just supported Paul in the first place, the Paul would have the resources to pay Peter back as necessary. I've updated my blog from yesterday, we were a nose away from making a big profit, instead we made a loss!!!! So the school report says, must do better. That's the story for the last 10 days really.
GOODWOOD
200 HEROSTATUS (NB)
In a very competitive looking race it should pay to side with an outsider. And with 19 runners you will get 4 places for E/w money. This one has rapidly been dropping down the weights and is now back to his early career mark, 6lb below last winning mark. Connections seem to be convinced that he is a stayer although he has not shown too much. The booking of a more experienced jockey looks a positive, even if it is Richard Hills. Well worth an E/w bet in a tough race to call. Never in the race
235 CHANDLERY
This looks to be between the top two in the market. Red Duke beat Chandlery a neck last time out at Newmarket but this time has a 3lb negetive in the weight. The second pointer was that Chandlery kept on when passed last time showing that perhaps he idles out front a little and Richard Hughes is the jockey to note that. An added danger will be Lethal force, 4th in the Coventry but he has failed to get home all 3 starts and could do the selection a favour by being the first to commit for the line. WINNER 5/2 ALBEIT UNDER QUESTIONABLE TACTICS.
310 CANFORD CLIFFS
I think the small field suits Frankel, The weights suit Frankel, on trainers Frankel, jockeys Canford, experience Canford, value for money Canford.
Theres not a lot of point looking at the other two. I can't call how the race is going to be run, I'd expect Quealley to just loosen the reigns and let Frankel go when he wants, that seems to work, as controversial as it looks at times. He cannot hold him up, especially not in a small field like this. If Canford is within a couple lengths at the business end, then he will will as his shorter stride makes for quicker acceleration. Frankel's camp have to hope that Canford gets carried away and follows the bull, and they can run the legs out of him. I'm having a tiny bet on Canford for value as I'd put them Even money the pair and wish punters luck. But above all I'm looking forward to seeing the two best milers in the world go head to head. 2nd. Destroyed by a monster.
345 HALIFAX
If this was a Group/listed race then I'd be on Chester Vase 4th Sadlers Risk all day long. But he has a ton to carry compared to the rest. 2m looked to be too far for him when 5th in the Queens vase at Ascot but has won both starts at this trip and more than capable of picking up a 12f hatrick. Very poor indeed, never got a run.
420 RAKASA
Much like the maiden yesterday, I can't find much appealing about those with racecourse experience. I'm going to hedge in with Rakasa, Mahmood Al Zarooni's newcomer. There is a French Guineas winner in the blood line, the stable are in pretty good form at the moment, and given the events of last Saturday, they will be fired up to bring in success. WINNER 11/2 looked green at the start went broke slowly and edged right. Got the hang of it and got up on the line.
455 DECENT FELLA or LUTINE BELL or SMARTY SOCKS
I couldn't split the three here. I've done 1pt singles and a quarter point combi forecast. Decent Fella was a little disappointing last time when 8th over a mile but back down to this trip should suit. Decent form this year at the distance with a 4th at Royal Ascot and a win at HQ over Red Gulch, who won here yesterday. Lutine Bell was 3/4 length down on Noble Citizen last time out when staying on over 6. The winner went on to land third in a much more competitive Heritage Handicap next time. This race looks winable on that form and evidence suggests that the step up to 7 may well suit. Smarty socks was in behind Decent fella at R.Ascot but is 3lb better off on renewal. The soft ground was most likely his undoing there. Last time out he was never going to get home 10f and will love the drop back down to 7. A trip he won over last time conditions were in his favour, as they are today. Jockey booking is a huge positive with Silvestre De Sousa in tremendous form at present. 5th/9th/3rd smarty socks stayed on well for a never nearer 3rd, Decent Fella weakened final furlong, Lutine Bell never competitve
530 IMAGINARY WORLD
This little filly has really been knocking on the door this year, and as they say, If you keep knocking someone will let you in sooner or later. She comes right from the bottom of the weights but inside the handicap. Has done nothing really wrong and a very good Each Way play today. 3rd 22/1, stayed on, finished 3rd never nearer.
GALWAY
525 BAHRAIN STORM unseated rider
LEICESTER
820 VOLITO (TREB) completely missed break, was such a non entity commentator never mentioned once
SANDOWN
550 GAZBOLOU (NAP) Held up, never really picked up when asked, 1 paced final furlong
Hope you all have a great day. Good luck and happy punting.
Profit yesterday -14.5pts Profit July -37.22
No comments:
Post a Comment