Wednesday 29 April 2015

Thursday 30 April

Morning, again some winners yesterday. I put up 11 in total and had a 12/1 winner so profit made again. I'm going to be honest, there's nothing I'm overly excited about today, my NAP would do well to sneak into a treble somedays and I only have 5 speculative ones in total. But we'll see how they go, if 1 scores we should be in profit so what's to lose?

LYRICAL THEATRE 715 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
For me she's the one to beat. She's the highest rated and gets weight from her closest rival, who she's already beaten off level weights. Sure I'm in no position sat here at my kitchen table to tell Ruby Walsh that he's on the wrong horse, but I think the prices reflect the jockeys not the horses here.

LUDO ET EMERGO 415 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
A good battling win at Limerick a month ago and form when out of the top end races is pretty good. Concern is the ground might be a bit quick, but If he can run his race then for me he can go close.

SILVER DIXIE 435 LINGFIELD (T)
C&D record is pretty good 124 (the 1 off today's mark, the 2 off 13lb higher, the 4 off 4lb higher) so the handicapper has presented him with a good chance today. At a best price 10/1 (Paddy Power) he's a solid bit of each way value.

the other 2!
DISTRICT ATTORNEY 215 SEDGE
KEEP ON TRACK 450 PUNCH

Good Luck and Happy Punting

Tuesday 28 April 2015

Wednesday 29 April

Morning, so we picked up, obviously Douvan, but 2 more winners on top at 5/1 and 15/2, a solid profit for the day. Hopefully more of the same today. There's sadly no time to go in depth today so will just be a list. I'll pop my treble down, then the extras.

DON COSSACK 530 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)

NO MORE HEROES 455 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)

LIMATO 405 ASCOT (T)

DEUCE AGAIN 330 ASCOT
COTTRELL 355 WOLVES
SADLER'S RISK 420 PUNCH
KINGSWINFORD 505 WOLVES
NARBOROUGH 520 PONTE
BALLYADAM APPROACH 640 PUNCH
BAILEYS PURSUIT 655 LING
STANLOW 800 LING

Good luck and Happy Punting

Monday 27 April 2015

Tuesday 28 April

Morning all, a couple winners yesterday. 13/8 and 5/4 SPs meant about a 12p/£ loss at LSP, but both were backed so provided you took a price you'd be okay. I've stumbled across a format that I'm going to stick with. I'm going pop up my treble for the day, with a writeup of sorts, then just list any further that were in the calculations. We'll see what happens.

DOUVAN 420 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
No excuses here, he's short, he's the best, he's going to add at least 20% to your winnings when doubled up. There's nothing in this race that would concern me. He should be unbackable, but he isn't, Paddy Power have gone 2/7, and ROI of 28.5%, no bank is giving you that. Obviously there's the small matter of a few bits of wood h has to jump but 28% on a horse that's never looked flustered, never made a blemish, good luck Paddy.

DR RED EYE 225 BRIGHTON (Nb)
Last week Dr Red Eye went down a length giving Ganymede 2lb, today he receives 5lb from the same horse. The other 2 are C&D winners but far from consistent. Expect a solid go from the front. hopefully the weight swing can keep him there.

FELIX YONGER 530 PUNCHESTOWN
I was shocked with the price of this horse, a multiple Grade 2 winner, who seems to be better than ever this year. Okay, there's Grade 1 winners in the race but for me Felix has shown enough to suggest he might be able to mix it with the big boys. This doesn't look the strongest Grade 1 in truth and again it's Paddy sticking their heads above the crowd with a generous 8/1.

JAZRI 255 BRIGHTON
MAIDEN APPROACH 315 NOTTS
STORMBOUND 355 BRIGHTON
FRONTLINE 455 PUNCHESTOWN
COSMIC CHATTER 615 NEWCASTLE
VALSEUR LIDO 640 PUNCHESTOWN

Good Luck and Happy Punting

Sunday 26 April 2015

Monday 27 April

Morning, just the 11/4 winner from 5 shots yesterday meant a small loss but nothing too much to worry about. I have 5 again today, with a bit of luck we'll get the 2 winners we need for a profit and work from there.

MARCIANO 130 SOUTHWELL
Destroyed a class 4 here in February from out of the handicap, and has a crack at a class 5 today. Last time's run at Pontefract should be ignored as the horse wore no headgear. No headgear form reads 08008 whereas with headgear (cheekpieces today) reads 1746531, so why they left off last time is case for Mr Holmes. This won't be easy as it's full of horses that like this surface but I think Marciano can kick on again.

SUBSTANTIVO 355 KEMPTON
A 16 time raced maiden isn't a prospect you'd be laying down the deeds of your house upon, but he put in a very eyecatching effort over C&D last time out, running into 3rd from a bad draw and finding trouble. He's drawn pretty much where you'd want to be drawn and David Probert given the legup again. He'll do well to find a better chance to break his duck than today.

LUCKY MARK 445 SOUTHWELL
C&D record since November reads 211433, you have to assume on that he'll be there or thereabouts again. Dropped a pound by the handicapper despite coming 3rd in a race that's working out well, the second has won twice since including once up in class.

CRAZY CHIC 750 WOLVES
Credible 3rd on his only previous all weather run, he's completely unexposed and although you're working a little on trust, Marco Botti does well in these events so should have every chance.

SWENDAB 820 WOLVES
Has generally run well here since the surface changed, one blip where he didn't get 7f when tried at that trip. Has it all to do from top weight and a wide draw, but I think that's factored into the price for you which makes him a shot of value.

Good Luck and Happy Punting.

Saturday 25 April 2015

Sunday 26 April

Morning all, a solid day Friday, I think I'm going to be brave enough to add a P/L ticker as of the 1st May, we'll see. I have 5 today. There was no blog yesterday, party due to time constraints and partly because I thought I had made a tweak too far and wasn't being consistent in my race dissection on the day. Personally it showed as 13 horses I backed finished placed, it was highly frustrating.

SAVED MY BACON 245 CHELMSFORD
Record at the track reads 311, sure it's a drop back to 5f but he seems to have the pace to cope and was collared close home over the same trip at Southwell less than a fortnight ago.

ELM GROVE 325 GOWRAN PARK
Ran respectably last time out, from out of the handicap with the jockey putting up overweight too. He's been officially dropped 4lb, and when all calculations done it puts him 8lb lower than last time out. He didn't get the mile that day and is dropped to 7f today, you have to assume that he has a chance.

RUN WITH PRIDE 420 CHELMSFORD
Not punished by the handicapper for a decent run here 10 days ago, this is a tougher test but should be thereabouts again.

CLIFTON MISS 500 GOWRAN PARK
Only started here career at the back end of last season and is yet to score but she posted a reasonable effort on handicap debut and holds a few of these on formlines.

CONRY 525 CHELMSFORD
This horse has been tumbling down the weights and this is a drop in class down to basement level. Positive jockey booking. For me if Conry wants this, it's his for the taking. If only it were that easy huh?

Good Luck and Happy Punting

Thursday 23 April 2015

Friday 24 April

A disappointing blank yesterday, a couple placed but no joy. I have 12 today! Sadly time is at a premium so I'll just pop them down.

WESTERN HYMN      200 SANDOWN
LONGSHADOW         220 DONCASTER
BRETON ROCK          230 SANDOWN
KODAFINE                 325 DONCASTER
ANGELITO                 400 DONCASTER
FULL JACK                420 PERTH
LOS NADIS                450 PERTH
IRON MAJOR (NAP) 705 DUNDALK
MIDNIGHT DOVE     740 CHEPSTOW
SPARTILLA                755 PLUMPTON
BASILICA                   805 DUNDALK
HOUSE LIMIT            835 DUNDALK

Wednesday 22 April 2015

Thursday 23 April

Morning, and a good bounce back to something resembling form yesterday. Wins at 8/1 and 7/2 with 4/1 and 25/1 shots finishing second. I have 6 today, hopefully one or two will score.

FLAWLESS FILLY 250 PERTH
Useful on the flat, was roughly a 70 rated performer which should make her capable of getting close to 100 over obstacles so her mark of 90 has some scope, potentially. Obviously it's not always black and white but there's just a little twinkle that says this one is worth watching for a little while, if not today then you'd naturally expect her to drop in class slightly next time.

AMBLESIDE 330 BEVERLEY
Tumbled down the handicap after struggling last campaign and is back down to his last winning mark. Fit from a run 2 weeks ago on ground probably a bit softer than he'd have wanted.

HI EMPRESS 545 TIPPERARY
Narrowly touched off when returning from a 100+ day break at this meeting last year, Wayne Lordan is an eye catching jockey booking, the 3yo in the field is the worry taking lumps of weight but Paddys put up 13/2 if you prefer to try each way.

SCHOTTISCHE 735 SOUTHWELL
At least placed (1 was win) 3 times in 5 handicaps here, other results were 4/11 and 6/13 so hardly disasters. This is an open looking race though I actually have Venus Grace as a danger and Minionette was very close to hitting another set of criteria. Having first run for Alan Bailey who has had 50% of the runners he's sent to Southwell in the last year make the frame.

COOL OSCAR 745 TIPPERARY
Generally gives his running at this track, winning here in October under today's pilot Paul Townend. Has it all to do off top weight but Townend is a jockey that will give the horse every chance.

SMUGGLERS LANE 755 BATH
In form to date this year, worth chancing at a good price for a trainer who is profitable to follow at this track.

Good Luck and Happy Punting



Tuesday 21 April 2015

Wednesday 23 April

Morning, I'm on a bad run right now, it's perplexing in truth, I can normally get about 1 in 6 to the winning line, on average, I'm putting up 8 today, I don't have time to go in to deep but I'll throw up a few words of positivity.

SWISS CROSS 210 EPSOM
Put in 2 solid efforts at Epsom last summer around today's mark, will appreciate quick ground.

PAVERS STAR 235 CATTERICK
Hit a purlple patch at the back end of the last turf season, icluding 2 good runs at today's venue. Big chance if ready to go again.

PERTUIS 310 CATTERICK
C&D winner, kept fit over winter hurdling. Only previous time Graham Lee sat on the horse it won.

REGAL DAN 420 CATTERICK
Been tumbling down the weights, David O'Meara has picked him up. Anyone who's been watching racing the last couple weeks will have seen how much Mr O'Meara has been getting over the handicapper.

OXALIDO 440 PERTH
On a workable mark sent back hurdling. Won on only previous visit to track off just 1lb lower.

CANGO 510 PERTH
Has a massive weight swing reopposing the favourite, hopefully can make that count today.

SMALLJOHN 520 CATTERICK
Was involved in a race that has thrown up a few winners 2 starts ago at Wolverhampton. Last time out found 1 too good but will like better ground today. Often an advantage in these races to look for the jockeys who don't claim.

LONAN 525 FAIRYHOUSE
Travelled well and finished 3rd on handicap debut last time out. Should be on the premises again today.

Good Luck if you follow, or if you use these to narrow your race down. Happy Punting


Monday 20 April 2015

Tuesday 21 April

At least I got my money back on the non runner yesterday, disappointing day really. Nothing was getting up from behind at Pontefract which saw to Lexington Abbey, Chevalgris seemingly didn't get the trip after travelling well and Atlantis Crossing got no help in running. I have just one today, so I can't lose as much. Positives people, think of the positives.

KING MASSINI 240 LUDLOW
Price ranges from 5/1 to 7/1. Coral providing the top end. Ran with credit on last 3 starts, second both of last 2 times out and the start before that has had a couple of boosts to the form. This horse had a purple patch about 16 months ago, during which time he landed 2 C&D successes, the only 2 times he has lined up over C&D. add another 2nd here over a shorter trip and he has a decent record at this track. He has a decent weight swing from a previous meeting with the favourite a race in which Guiding George was ridden out for a place and this one not treated harshly.

Let's hope he goes better than yesterday's efforts. Good Luck.

Sunday 19 April 2015

Monday 20th April

The less said about yesterday's selection, the better. It ran like, well quite frankly like I had backed it. I have 4 taken my eye today. I'm hoping for a bit more excitement for my money. I'll pop them in time order.

LEXINGTON ABBEY 320 PONTEFRACT
He's been running well, and seems to enjoy the sit out and rattle late tactics that comes with a certain Mr Spencer sat on your back. This looks a squeak easier than recent tasks and the slightly smaller field might give the tactics a bit more of a chance.

CHEVALGRIS 350 PONTEFRACT
A bit of a shot in the dark as he has the trip to prove, but on decent to quick ground there's nothing to suggest he won't. The thing that caught my eye initially was the booking of Shane Gray, a young man who is on his way to the top. Upon further investigation I noticed he had ridden just once prior for Mr Swinbank and that resulted in a success aboard Lady Kashaan in a staying handicap just 2 weeks ago. You can get 8/1 and provided the dead eight line up each way players have a good bet on their side there, I think.

NINI OK 645 CORK
It would be easy to put up Bold Thady Quill, especially having been given a form boost by Flight Risk yesterday, but I won't. This one won readily at Dundalk back in January, the ability is in there. Wayne Lordan gets the ride, he narrowly missed out on the jockeys title a couple of seasons back so he's a solid man to have. This mare though, if you disect her form it's a lot better on good ground, which is few and far between a lot of the time in Ireland but she gets it today.

ATLANTIS CROSSING 755 WINDSOR
Easy to discount on recent form, but turf mark is very workable. He placed twice last summer in better races off higher marks so has to be respected here, even if only as an each way back, again that is hoping all 8 line up. Overnight players have already been in with a nibble and William Carson is a jockey that'll do you right if you needed a job done, so to speak.

Good Luck and Happy Punting

Saturday 18 April 2015

Sunday 19 April

Morning, it's been a long time since I posted, but thought I'd resurrect and see how we go. I've got one horse to share today, hopefully it runs well.

DASHWOOD 320 CURRAGH (11/1 Paddy Power)

So he's only won 4 of 25 turf starts, a modest 16%, however 12 of those starts have been over differing trips making a strike over today's 6f a much more resounding 30%, also 2 placings at the trip which incidently have come at today's venue, once off current mark of 75, and once off a squeak higher at 78. His other C&D appearance was 5th of 23 off 86, so safe to say he runs his race here. Posted an excellent effort 2 starts ago on seasonal reappearance (here, 78) a race in which the horse finishing behind him has gone on and won a listed race since. At 11/1 i think he represents solid value.