Friday 30 September 2011

Saturday 1st October - I'm back

Hello, have you missed me, to tell the truth I've missed sharing my ramblings with the world, so much so that I am doing it on a laptop right now, and I HATE laptops! I'll have more time to ramble during the week but it's Saturday today, and I am always a busy boy at the weekend.

NAP 10pts
HILL TRIBE 750 WOLVERHAMPTON unplaced
Kieron Fallon deserts after C&D win last week, but Rob Butler takes 3lb off the 5lb rise, should give a good account of herself again as she loves this surface.

1pt selections
ASCOT
350 SMARTY SOCKS 2nd / IMPERIAL GUEST unplaced 1pt each + 1pt RFC
535 MARYGOLD unplaced

NEWMARKET
225 SAMITAR WINNER 5/4
335 ART HISTORY WINNER 9/2
520 ROSE BLOSSOM 3rd

REDCAR
510 SELECT COMMITEE 3rd

That's all folks.
Total Placed 19pts Total Returns 7.75pts 

Good luck

FOOTBALL
The £5 treble
SUNDERLAND to beat west brom
PRESTON to beat L.Orient
BRAINTREE to beat fleetwood

Over 2.5 goals bet
Man Utd v Norwich
Leeds v Portsmouth
Walsall v Carlisle
Crawley v Plymouth

Good luck with all your bets, and of course, Happy punting.
See you tomorrow.

Sunday 11 September 2011

Sunday 11th September - I'm having a week off.

This is going to be my last blog until next Sunday, maybe Saturday if i get withdrawal symptoms. I am moving house over the next few days, so that has to be my priority I'm afraid. Just a quickie today as I need to start shifting some boxes.

CURRAGH

240 PRINCESS SINEAD
345 BIBLE BELT
415 ACROSS THE RHINE
520 BEWITCHED

GOODWOOD

155 GALIVANT
305 GRUMETI / MARINERS LODGE / CHORAL FESTIVAL
410 TARIQ TOO / APRIL FOOL
440 ACHALAS / MEGALALA
515 ALFRESCO

LISTOWEL

230 COOL NEWPORT
300 DEFINATE CLASS / PLAN A
405 KALICA KIM
435 WHITE STAR LINE
510 DARENJAN

FFOS LAS

400 SATWA PEARL / MISS AIX / MISTY ISLES

In the GP, Torro Rosso generally do quite well at Monza and I'm going to back both Alguersuari and Buemi to finish in the points, both at odds against.

Total Placed Today 42pts

Current profit for September 72.58pts

Good luck and I'll see you all in a week.

Saturday 10 September 2011

Saturday September 10th - Leger Festival Day 4

A fantastic renewal of the Leger, Group racing in England and Ireland, Italian GP qualifying, Footie back after break, England start their rugby world cup campaign. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am a pig in shit on days like today. Yesterday Mr Dettori cost us 400 points by, in my opinion, giving the wrong ride to Opinion Poll, I think the pace of the race was perhaps a little slow, but I feel Frankie should have just sent him on once Motrice came off the bridle, OP wasn't interested by the time the winner came alongside and couldn't quicken to watch (a very impressive) Saddlers Rock go away to win. Take nothing away from the winner, he was very good, and a certain Ascot gold cup winner of the future, but I feel had the pace been quicker and Frankie sent the horse from further back rather than cruising at the front then we'd have landed the big money. Remember I am not a jockey, trainer or even racehorse owner, so my opinion is worth very little, but as a punter and fan I am entitled to it and through the medium of my blog I can air it. Right onto todays selecs, I shall put in a little sentence to guide as I go along but no full write ups today I'm afraid. Busy day ahead.

DONCASTER

205 ENTIFAADHA big rival Red Duke had no luck in running last time but I think this one is progresive enough to win here.
235 ANCIENT CROSS 4TH/ SECRET WITNESS the former is my idea of the winner, he puts in a huge run every third run, and this is the third run since last win.
310 BLUE BUNTING / BROWN PANTHER 2ND I feel if BB gets in front, she wins. Micheal Owens charge BP has been prepared for this race from the start, i think, and will run a huge one at a massive overprice.
345 ETON FOREVER 2ND
415 THE CHEKA
450 ANJAZ WINNER 7/2 2yo Street Cry Filly, see 300 yesterday.
525 WALDVOGEL Consistent sort and interesting jockey booking.

CURRAGH

240 AN GHALANTA 3RD/ BORN TO SEA WINNER 5/2 The former has the beating of the other main rivals but any support for the unraced half brother of Sea The Stars will be a huge clue.
315 POWER (NAP) WINNER 11/4 Sent off too early in the Phoenix, hopefully will come from further back today as usual and regain momentum in the path to Guineas glory.
350 FAME AND GLORY Jamie Spencer back on board today, 3 from 3. Should be a formality.
425 PARAMOUNT / SPARRING PARTNER
455 BENEFIT OF PORTER

GOODWOOD

145 JUSTINEO
220 CEILIDH HOUSE / NATIONALISM Fave French Navy is a cracking horse and worthy fave, but can't take at the price with jockey.
250 DESEERT POPPY WINNER 12/1
325 SPACE STATION /TRUISM / NORSE BALLAD
435 ROBIN HOODS BAY NR
540 SHAVANSKY / ROAYN NR

CHESTER

330 BERLING
410 SIGNIFER / MAHKANA
445 LUCKY DAN / RIDLEY DIDLEY NR
515 JUNGLE BAY / DRIVE HOME

 BATH

355 MAZE WINNER 6/1

KEMPTON

520 MY LOVE FAJER
625 SURWAKI
655 LITOTES
855 KAKAPUKA WINNER 25/1/ REZWAAN

MULTIPLES
1pt Lucky 15 : Entifaadha, Blue Bunting, Eton Forever, Anjaz
1pt Lucky 15 : An Gahalnta, Power, Berling, Justineo
0.5pt E/w L15 : Ancient Cross, Waldvogel, Desert Poppy, Paramount

Total Placed 100pts Total Returns 102.65pts

The £5 football treble is back
Corals will pay me 26.65 if Cardiff, Shrewsbury and Southampton all win today. WINNER

Hope everybody has been catching my Rugby tips on Twitter, as we are 100% at the moment
New Zealand / Tonga : 10pts Tonga Hcap (+60) +9.1 pts
Scotland / Romania : no bet
Fiji / Namibia : 4.91pts V. Gonava 1st Try 6/1 +29.46pts
France / Japan : 10pts Japan Hcap (+42) +9.1pts
England / Argentina : 15pts England Hcap (-14)

Thursday 8 September 2011

Friday 9th September - Leger Festival Day 3

The multiples let us down yesterday, but the 12/1 maiden winner eased the pain a little. I think we may just have seen a derby contender there. There is a maiden I like the look of today, He is a colt by Gallileo called Shantaram, he is bred to excel over a mile, and races for a yard with a good record of getting one ready first time out. Also half brother to a smart performer who finished third in the 2000 Guineas. Def worth a watch to see how he goes.
The NFL season didn't start too well with all 3 bets going down. Watch out for the big one on Sunday.
Onto Donny.
DONCASTER

125 A very tricky looking affair until you delve deeper, in my opinion most of these want further than 5 furlongs apart from REQUINTO WINNER 10/3. I think you will get a decent price because of his disappointing run in the Nunthorpe lto, On suitability to distance alone I would have him around 2/1. I think Lilbourne Lad could struggle over the sharper trip giving weight to all rivals. The big danger is Angels will fall who gets weight as a filly and is looking to bounce back from a very poor run last time.

155 The Mallard is one that the bookies could get away with today. A very open handicap and tough to get an idea of the winner. I'm going with PRECISION BREAK. He won this last year and J.Spencer teamed up with D.Simcock to grab a winner yesterday. The horse is a Donny specialist and looks to have the best chance here. Obviously Eternal Heart and Tominator entered the shortlist.

225 I spent a long while just looking for something to beat OPINION POLL 2ND. I'm afraid I couldn't. Therefore he is my NAP. He is a different class and looks set to land a staying cup hattrick. Blue Bajan may get second but never appears to stay an inch over 2m, Tastahil would go close if he remembers he is a racehorse. Something has looked very wrong with him on last few runs.

300 It's going to be Cat and Mouse today between punters and bookies and this one goes to the book. I cannot touch the favourite at all. (Fallen for You) nothing much has come from his maiden and I think there is just far more evidence for others. Regal Realm was hugely game in winning last time out, coming from too far back and essentially coming through a brick wall of horses to get to the line. The one I like today is LYRIC OF LIGHT WINNER 9/1 to give Frankie and Mahmood a quick double. If I wanted to send a horse out at the moment it would be a 2yo Street Cry filly. They just seem to have got it going on right about now. She won vey easily on debut and looked as if she would go further. She seemes to have a bit of foot about her and Regal Realm won't get away with coming late today.

335 Punters to retake the lead. The maiden that EKTIHAAM WINNER 8/15 won is already looking vey strong with a number a winners coming from in behind including the highly respected Harvard and Yale. Can't see anything close to his ability and the bookies will be running for cover from this one.

410 I'm going with C&D winner GRISSOM. He is looking to get hold of cricket stumps on his form and seemingly has enough in hand to stay ahead of the handicapper for now.

440 In the tricky last I'm siding with the very consistent KENYAN CAT. He has been marching up the ladder with great consistency if not always winning. Worth an each way bet at a double figure price.


SANDOWN

245 MATA HARI BLUE / STRATTON BANKER
355 HURRICANE LADY / WHISTLE ON BY
430 BROUGHTONS SWINGER
500 DANESIDE WINNER 9/1

CHESTER

450 ABDICATE
525 AVONCREEK

WOLVERHAMPTON

510 RAINY NIGHT / EMIRATESDOTCOM WINNER 9/2
540 CLASS MONITOR
810 MEYDAN STYLE
840 ALL HONESTY

Todays multiples
1pt Lucky 15 : Requinto, Opinion Poll, Lyric of Light, Ektihaam
0.5pt E/w Patent : Precision Break, Grissom, Kenyan Cat

In the rugby I can't take New Zealand to win by more than 60pts so Tonga on the handicap looks great value.

Good luck and happy punting.
Total placed today 45pts Total Returns 186.98pts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday 7 September 2011

Thursday 8th September - The Leger festival Day 2

Welcome to the blog of day 1's horseracingtavern.com twitter tipster challenge winner. I shall decide what to do with my £20 free bet soon, not today though as nothing jumps out of the page at me as worthwile.
Todays selections will follow then I have the best 3 bets for the NFL season opener tonight, they shall be at the bottom if you wish to skip straight there.
I advise the usual 1pt per horse and 0.5pt RFC where viable. + i shall add some multiples at the bottom and advise stakes. Yesterdays lucky broke even, although where i live everywhere pays treble odds so i made a profit. Also please excuse any typos that i may miss, my son is sat on my lap, and it likes to kick the keyboard!

DONCASTER

125 A tricky loking nursery for fillies. I've sided with ROGER SEZ, she won a similar race to this at HQ back in July but too runs since, up in class, have shown that she is screaming out for further. Connections have responded with the step up to 7 and I think that will suit. She found them too quick at York, but no disgrace in who she was beaten by at Ripon last time, this looks much easier to win and combined with the longer trip, we should get the day off to a flyer.

155 John Oxx's ALANZA WINNER 11/4 travels over in fine form, she has beaten some very good horses and the form of her two listed wins has been boosted a number of times already. The big danger for me is Luca Cumani's Seta who is unbeaten from 3 starts at this trip. I'd suggest a bet on each and a little reverse forecast.

225 A good looking 2yo race here. I'm looking for a bit of value and I think I've found it in Ralph Becketts MOON PEARL. All 3 behind him in his Ascot maiden have gone on to run well and I fancied him to have a go last time in Group 3 company. He was well beaten that day, but was always playing catch up after a tardy start. He finished 8th at York behind the very good Entifaadha and that race is already looking like a good one. the 4th has won a listed race, the 9th (5l behind MP) finished 3rd to Mehdi in a valuable stakes race, and the horse that finished 11th has gone out and won a decent race in Ireland. Moon Pearl is hugely overpriced and doesn't need to find a lot to improve on last times run. Massive Each way value and hopefully a win.

300 The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is by far the best race of the day. For me it's a 3 horse race and the layers have got them right. If Micheal Bell's Set to Music continues this upward curve at the same rate, she should grow wings and fly by the end of the year. She takes weight from the older horses and deserves to be high in the betting. My concern is that this is another step up in class and trip and maybe might be a bit for her to find. Meeznah warrants respect as she has rushed hooves with the best fillies and mares over her career and was a game winner of the Lillie Langtry at Goowood. She struggled in the Freer against the boys last time but when you consider the first 2 are among the leading fancies for the big one on Saturday I think we just throw that race out of the window. Although all being said my idea of the winner is Dermot Weld's SENSE OF PURPOSE. She proved very game 2 starts ago to hold off Bob Le Beau in a listed contest at Leopardstown. That was about 100yards shorter than today. She is the one you'd take most to get the trip and she has suffered defeat twice this year. Most recently to Group 1 winner Banimpire and the time before was her first race of the season on what can only be described as mud at Navan in a listed race containing a horse called Fame and Glory. The winner will come from the 3 I've mentioned and I hope it's the one I've sided with, although Set to Music would be a very popular winner.

335 A maiden, I don't usually bet on them but I make an exception for big festivals or if certain breeding patterns have a spell of form. One I like here is PERENNIAL WINNER 12/1. A colt by motivator out of a useful dam by all accounts. Half Brother Redwood has tasted group 1 success. This one looks like he will gobble up this trip and Khalid Abdullah could see his colours at the winning post for a second year on the bounce.

410 Yuk, a 22 runner handicap. These take up far too much of my time for very little reward, so i've glanced at the card. There has been money for PRAVDA STREET this morning and it looks well treated against rivals, so I'm going with the EBOR winning team of Ellison and Swift.

440 BURJ NAHAR. Been off colour since his tremendous comeback run after a year and a half off. However my tip for this is that Frankie rides him. Not only is there a choice of 3 from Godolphin, Frankie has often been given permission to ride Jeremy Noseda's Club Oceanic, today ridden by Jamie Spencer, even when they have entries in the race.

Others
CHEPSTOW

205 SILVAS ROMANA / ROOKNRASPBERRYRIPPE

EPSOM

320 WHITBY JET
355 KINGS BAYONET

WOLVERHAMPTON

640 ROODEE QUEEN
810 FRANCIS ALBERT
840 GHUFA

Don't forget Laytown runs today. It's good fun to watch the horses on the beach. Not a betting event though. However in the maiden there is one called Hot Sand, that has to be worth a quid.

Multiples :
0.5pt E/w Lucky 15 : Roger Sez, Moon Pearl, Pravda Street, Burj Nahar
5pt Double : Alanza, Sense of Purpose
2pt Trixie (8pts total) : Silvas Romana, Francis Albert, Ghufa

Good luck with them.
Total Placed 45ptsTotal Returns 16.75pts

We are minus 44pts so far this month but it will come back. Don't panic. Some housekeeping to do on results, and I will do that when I get a bit of time.

NFL

Tonight sees the NFL kickoff with The New Orleans Saints travelling to The Green Bay Packers. I am having 3 bets on this match.
1. New Orleans (Point Spread). 10pts @ 10/11 +4.5 Sky, VC, PP, Bwin, Coral
It will be a very tight game and likely solved by a field goal. Neither side has mustered up much of a winning margin in Pre season, not of worth anyway, and therefore I have to side with the team with a positive figure.

2. Total Points under. 10pts @ 10/11 under 48 Bet365, Boylesport
I think this mark is just a smidge too high, my number crunching came up with 44.5 so I've got 3.5 pts leeway, which could be the winning field goal ;-)

3. Highest scoring quarter. Q2, 5pts @ 7/4 Sky bet
Both sides done most damage in Q2 during preseason, with GB getting 35% and NO 39% of total points in Q2, effectively the price is a tiny bit high, and therefore value.

Finally, in the RWC, yesterday I spotted that V Goneva has an 80% try to cap rate for Fiji yet was 25/1 for top Fiji tryscorer, i put it up on twitter and I hope some of you got on, as now the best you'll find is 10's. I have to thank the Racing Post for their fantastic pullout which i think will find us a lot of money over the next couple of weeks.

Tuesday 6 September 2011

Wednesday 7th September - The St Leger Festival Day 1.

Well the Leger festival is on, which means one thing, we can begin counting down to the only festival that really gets people truly excited anymore. It also means that night racing has finished, so betting shop staff get to sit at work til 10pm in the dark for the benefit of Philadelphia, Club Hipico and some bottom grade tosh from Wolverhampton!
Speaking of tosh racing, that describes todays fare from Kempton and Carlisle, Donny's first day card is hardly interstellar, the best racing, in my opinion, today comes from Uttoxeter. But, I have to be true to the blog and remember that a lot of my readers just want to win money so Class of Race, horse, etc.. is of zero interest, they just need to know which one will win.
I am going to put a little blurb about Donny with selecs, (italics are my own thoughts rather than a system) I'm putting up a little Lucky 15 today along with the usual staking plan.

DONCASTER

200 ARENA STRUCTURES NURSERY 2yo
I'm not a huge fan of Nurseries, handicapping 2 year olds just is a bit wierd for me. The key to picking 2yo winners is how the form of prior races has panned out, and that is taken away from you by the handicapper. So I just used the system here and it threw up 3. NAME IT WHAT YOU LIKE / WEST LEAKE HARE / BLUE BANANA. 2ND

235 NAPOLEANS SHEFFIELD CONDITIONS STAKES 2yo
This is better, you can judge the 2yo on merit here. I'll start from the back, Foxtrot Romeo could be justly seen as here to make up the numbers, Brian Smarts charge won a maiden last month, but nothing has really come out of that race, one from further down the field placed in another weak event, but no page turners. Artistic Jewel is an odd one, absolutely nothing has come out of his maiden, yet his run last time out was a lot more than bare form suggests, he had a torrid time at the start and was always playing catch up, yet still managed to finish up the top half of the field. Alaskan Bullet is somewhat an unknown quantity, and i don't think deserves to be so short. He won his maiden well but although it has produced form, that form isn't really up in grade, as this race is. Far too short for my money and more potential for a lay. Eureka, Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. 6th at Goodwood in a race that produced York festival winners Caspar Netscher and Bogart, incidently he split the pair. Hasn't made the progression expected yet may find one too good again. That one should be the Godolphin entry GOLD CITY 2ND. He won his first 2 races very easily and was narrowly denied a hattrick by the impressive Gerfalcon last time out. Strictly on the Gerfalcon/Bogart line Eureka would have his beating but I think Frankie may well have got more from the horse than Ted Durcan. Frankie is on today. And it will be a scrap to the line between him and Richard Hughes.

310 SCARBOROUGH STAKES (listed)
I've put my selection here as my NAP for today. CAPTAIN DUNNE. Since being within a length and a half form future group 1 winner Prohibit in this race last year he has been consistently good. Recently though he was beaten a nose in a group 3 in france, landed the Epsom "Dash" very gamely indeed. Was just a bit outclassed, I think, in the Nunthorpe. and last time out he came across Tangerine Trees on a good day. Tangerine Trees on a good day is a bullet, strictly he has a little to find with Duchess Dora on that race but he was squeezed out when making his effort. I think he is drawn to get a lead here and will relish that. Once he is in front he will take some catching.

345 LEGENDS RACE
This is a race for pretty poor horses with old jockeys on. Sorry no disrespect is meant by that, but that's a summary. It should add a bit of fun, and I believe there is a charity aspect to it so it will be more than worthwile. I'm siding with TRIBAL MYTH under Kevin Darley. Little bet.

420 COOPERS MARQUEES STAKES
I'm sticking with a horse that I feel is always overpriced but very difficult to win with, "maybe that's why the big price, Guy?" perhaps, but i think getting a bit of weight off the 4yo will help. I think 10f is his best trip and if he can get in striking distance near the finish he has an incredible turn of foot, hopefully the smaller field will make that easier. And if there is one jockey you want on your side to use a turn of foot to his advantage. I've just realised I've been rambling on and haven't told you the horse! CAI SHEN WINNER 7/1

450 CHAMPIONS HANDICAP
There is a seriously undervalued horse in this. LOUIS THE PIOUS 2ND, last time out at Newbury, he came third for which he has been raised a lb. That seems fair. No. He missed the break and was left in rear. Waited with a little too long by the jockey. Found trouble all the way through. HAd to check his run about five times. A clean race he would have won by 3-4 lengths going away. An extra furlong that day he would have won, connections have stepped him up in trip and booked Frankie. This one has "Chicken Dinner" written all over it and at a beautiful price.

520 CLASS 4 HANDICAP (Full name far too long!)
I've gone with DRIFT AND DREAM here. Although I have a feeling that I'll be puling my hair out whatevr wins, about 6 in this have let me down more than once, and some others have let me down before. Haajes and Taurus Twins have probably been the most persistent offenders. My selection has only run once in the last year so hasn't had time to P##s me off yet. Yet!

Right onto the others.

UTTOXETER

220 FOREVER MY FRIEND
255 THE FOX'S DECREE 2ND
330 STAGECOACH AMBER
405 HALDIBARI WINNER 9/1 / YABORA 4TH
510 TRI NATIONS / IXORA 3RD / LAUSTRA BAD

CARLISLE

355 INGLEBY EXCEED
530 RESET TO FIT

KEMPTON

720 EXCHANGE
750 LUTINE CHARLIE / GRAND PIANO


The Lucky 15 is on the Italic selections. If you can't be bothered to scroll back up, Gold City, Captain Dunne, Cai Shen and Louis the Pious.

Total Placed 51pts Total Returns 33pts
Good Luck

Profit for September so far -26.05pts

Monday 5 September 2011

Tuesday 6th September - Just a quickie today

Just a quick one today because I'm sulking! At about 630pm I had 4 players withing grabbing distance of place money in the Deutsche Bank golf. About an hour later they had all imploded and I was left wondering why i don't just get to betfair and lay, lay, lay!
Anyway, heres my horseys for today. For interest only my "NAP", although by no means a strong one, is Rondeau.

SEDGEFIELD

250 HEART OF DUBAI
320 NGONG HILLS
350 GOLDEN FUTURE

LEICESTER

300 SONGSMITH / ZARIUS NR
330 KINGS ROAD / HOT SPICE WINNER 11/2

LINGFIELD

310 RONDEAU NR/ KAKAPUKU NR/ BAJAN BEAR

Total Placed 18pts Total Returns 16.5pts

Good luck, I won't bother you with the tennis, it really hasn't been going well. Although, Sam Stosur is my last E/w money left so a bet on Zvonareva at just short of even money could well reward!

Sunday 4 September 2011

Monday 5th September - Try, Try, again

A blank yesterday, :-( so it's back to the stone and try again. I like the look of Deans Grange in the 430 @ Newton Abbott, He has been pretty tough to win with, but never far from the scene since moving to fences, the handicapper is giving him a third crack at this mark, and on that basis I think he is well treated to land one here. He was a course and distance winner not so long ago and given that he will be in the mix, then the booking of the champ is a massive positive.

NEWTON ABBOTT

230 KINGS EQUITY
330 CAPPAGH / HEALTH IS WEALTH
430 DEANS GRANGE (NAP) / HELEN WOOD

BATH

310 SERMONS MOUNT / TITUS GENT
340 PEIRA / SASHEEN

NEWCASTLE

450 BARNUM

ROSCOMMON

535 RAVISSANTE

Good Luck
Profit for month 12.9pts
Total Placed today 15pts


TENNIS
2 Yankees today
1. FERRERO, DJOKOVIC, TSONGA, FEDERER
2. PAVLYUCHENKOVA, WILLIAMS, SUAREZ-NAVARRO, KUZNETSOVA

Saturday 3 September 2011

Sunday 4th September - Where has all the racing gone?

Yesterday we had about four hundred and twelveteen meetings, today we have 3, one of which, (Dundalk), is of the ilk of a Wolverhampton meeting on a monday afternoon in January! I've had a little look through Fontwell and York, nothing really jumps out of the page to inspire me but here are some for today.

YORK

150 CITIZENS CHARTER / LADYKIN
300 QUITE SPARKY
330 PIAZZA SAN PIETRO / ORPSIE BOY
430 DHHAMAAN

FONTWELL

415 BREAKING SILENCE
450 WINNING SHOW / PRINCE PIPPIN

Good luck!
Total Placed 12pts
Current profit for month 0.90pts

TENNIS

Just 3 yankees today across the 12 games, yesterday we got 3,2,2,1 on the yankees so lets hope for better today. On a brighter note, sports fans, Bubba Watson is the halfway joint leader in the Deutsche Bank, and Soren Kjeldsen is poised to have a go today in the Omega.

1. ISNER, NALBANDIAN, DEL POTRO, MURRAY
2. MULLER, MAYER, RODDICK, CHELA
3. KERBER, PENG, KIRILENKO, LISICKI

Friday 2 September 2011

Satruday 3rd September - Ridiculous

That's what people will say when they look at my book today, I didn't even look at the early races at Leopardstown as I ran out of room! I was going to give a little write up on the class 1's today but I don't have nearly enough time, if anyone would like concise reasonings then just drop me a tweet @GSPCCOYS and I will happily oblige. I'll crack on, Italic selections are class 1, my fancies, not system picks.

ASCOT

240 FALLS OF LORA WINNER 5/2/ SALFORD ART NR
315 REIGNIER / BRAE HILL
345 ITHOUGHTITWASOVER / COMMUNICATOR / SPIFER 2ND
420 SPRING IN MY STEP (also declared 405 Hay, but don't fancy for that)
450 VALENCHA 2ND

HAYDOCK

200 FIRST CITY
230 TOMINATOR / ACTIVATE
300 MEDICI TIME / MASTER ROONEY 2ND
335 WOOTON BASSETT
405 DEMOCRATES WINNER 13/2
440 MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT

KEMPTON

215 BRONZE CANNON 2ND
245 SHAMIR / INDIAN JACK
350 GALIVANT / MUNGO PARK 3RD
425 SAIGON 3RD
455 GRANNY MCPHEE
525 MY SON MAX / TIRADITO / MUNAASEB NR

LEOPARDSTOWN

510 VISCOUT NELSON
540 MISTY FOR ME 3RD
610 SIX OF HEARTS
645 RODERIC O CONNOR (PLACE ONLY OR W/O FAV)
720 SCEAL NUA

MUSSLEBURGH

235 IRISH BOY / ARRIVA LA DIVA
305 DANCING FREDDY / MIDNIGHT DYNAMO / SENATE MAJORITY
340 ON THE CUSP / BENNY THE BEAR
415 RAVI RIVER / FOCAIL EILE WINNER 18/1
445 THINK ITS ALL OVER WINNER 9/2
515 LOS NADIS 3RD

STRATFORD

355 PRINCELY HERO
430 DOMINO DANCER 3RD/ OLYMPIAN WINNER 20/1

THIRSK

330 LEGAL LEGACY
400 COTTON KING / PERSIAN PERIL 2ND
435 KINGSCROFT
505 RYEDALE DANCER / ALLURING STAR / THATCHERITE WINNER 14/1

WOLVERHAMPTON

630 JIBAAL (NAP) / ROWAN SPIRIT
700 VALMINA WINNER 15/2
800 CANE CAT NR/ KINGSTON TIGER 2ND

Good luck ploughing through that lot,

Total Placed 95pts! Total Returns 88pts
Profit for September 6.10pts

TENNIS

Kudravtseva cost us £98 by losing to Kerber, but the men did us proud so we are about £6 up for the tournament.
Today I am doing 4 x £1 yankees I haven't looked at prices, time is not my friend this morning, hopefully they are ok.

1 - MONACO, GRANOLLERS, DAVYDENKO, FEDERER
2 - DOLGOPOLOV, BERDYCH, ANDERSON, TSONGA
3 - SUAREZ-NAVARRO, KUZNETSOVA, VINCI, WOZNIACKI
4 - AZARENKA, IVANOVIC, JANKOVIC, SCHEEPERS

Good luck.

US Open Tennis - Friday

We aren't doing very well so far, but I think the mens will see us right today.

MENS 5-FOLD

ISNER to beat ginepri
NADAL to beat mahut
BOGOMOLOV to beat da silva
MAYER to beat lisnard
RODDICK to beat sock

A £50 acca at sporting bet's 4/6 will return the £30 deficit for the tourney so far with bout £7 change.

WOMENS 5-FOLD

NICULESCU to beat safarova
ZVONAREVA to beat garrigues
KUDRAVTSEVA to beat kerber
PENNETTA to beat sharapova
KIRILENKO to beat mchale

Just chance a £1 acca here, pays £98.39 with bet365, £10 higher than closest rival.

good luck.

Thursday 1 September 2011

Friday 2nd September - A solid start.

A solid start yesterday with nearly 8pts profit made, if we continue like that then we will finish the month 240pts up, if your points are tenners then you are laughing.
Todays NAP is a bit of a wild one, I'm relying completely on system picks now, I only study Class 1 races and managed to find you all a 28/1 second yesterday. My NAP if no class 1 events, will generally be the one that i feel is best chance of my system bets. Today that is Marvellous Value in the 310 at Haydock. He last won 3 starts ago in class 3, and since has run class 2 and class 3 events, this is a drop to class 4 and the handicapper has eased a couple of pounds off his intitial raise. Not sure what's available now but I saw 16s floating about when I was doing my studying this morning.
PS another forecast landed last night, we have a potential tricast throw up today, fingers crossed.

HAYDOCK

140 NOMOREBLONDES
310 MARVELLOUS VALUE WINNER 8/1/ JOBE
340 RED CAPE
410 FREE FOR ALL NR
510 THE ONLY KEY NR / TROOPING THE COLOUR NR / ELTHEEB

KILBEGGAN

505 TABLE FORTY SIX
535 TRENDELLENBURG 2ND/ BRAVE BEAUTY
605 CHAPTER ELEVEN
635 HANS CRESCENT
705 WESTMEATH BACHELOR

BRIGHTON

320 OLNEY LASS WINNER 6/1
420 BLUE DEER 2ND
520 DELIRA / CHAUSSINI

KEMPTON

850 BRABAZON
920 STAR IN FLIGHT

1pt each plus 0.5pt RFC/CFC/CTC where appropriate
1pt E/w Double Marvellous Value and Trendellenburg

Profit this month 7.72pts
Total Placed 31pts Total Returns 29.38pts

US Open Tennis - Thursday

Some interesting ties to be played later today. I've crunched the numbers and picked out some print money 5-folds, a couple of chancey multiples and a monster single.

MEN

My 5-fold for tonight is as follows

FALLA to beat Haas
TSONGA to beat Bubka
FISH to beat Jaziri
GASQUET to beat Karlovic
MONFILS to beat Ferrero

A £10 Acca pays £27.30 with Blue Square

Then a little £0.50 Patent, totalling £3.50
LLODRA to beat Anderson
PETSCHNER to beat Tipsarevic
FOGNINI to beat Berdych

The treble alone pays £78.43 with Sporting bet

The final selection is a cheeky £ at 40/1 with Paddy Power to Carlos Berlocq to beat Novak Djokovic, the world number 1 allegedly has a suspect shoulder and Berlocq has the game to test it out, there are all sort of Spread/handicap markets which should offer large bet value but 40/1 for a one off game for a player here on merit not qualifier etc.. is huge.

WOMEN

I chanced a 5-fold yesterday on the ladies but Marion Bartoli got outplayed and hence lost the bet so a bit of catching up to do.

VINCI to beat Cornet
WILLIAMS to beat Krajicek
PEER to beat Stephens
KANEPI to beat Soler
KUZNETSOVA to beat Baltacha

The Acca here pays £31.10 for a tenner with Victor Chandler

A little £0.50 Luky 15 (£7.50)
SUAREZ NAVARRO to beat Halep (will be happy if this loses, you'll find out in a nimute)
RUS to beat Wozniacki
SCHEEPERS to beat Barthel
MARTIC to beat Pavlyuchenkova

the acca alone pays £80.44 with Sporting bet again.

A player who has really climbed the ranks this year is the Romanian(I think) teen sensation Simona Halep. We saw her give Serena one hell of a game at Wimbledon, and for much of this year she has been unlucky with early round draws and her rapid climb has slowed down a little, she was a very promising junior but never realy hit top gear turning pro, she puts her rise up the rankings down to, unbelievably, a breast reduction that she had at the end of last year. Her quarter of the draw is really opening up with Li and Hantuchova both going out. Obviously Wozniacki is in there but she is never really a factor at Grand slams, although this is her favourite. Sky bet offer 500/1 for Halep which is daft really, her projected route to the final would now be, Suarez-Navarro, Kanepi, Petkovic, Wozniacki, Azarenka. If she meets the World number 1 in the Quarters anything could happen. Come on Simona!