So, a new month is upon us. Profit made overall for June, despite somewhat of a barren spell since Royal Ascot. I've got 3 I fancy today, hopefully 1, maybe 2, or perhaps even all 3 can oblige.
MUNAAWIB 515 WOLVERHAMPTON
JUST DARCY 800 WINDSOR (NAP)
ERTIKAAN 815 FFOS LAS
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 30 June 2013
Saturday 29 June 2013
Sunday 30-6-13
Morning, a blank yesterday, which was somewhat disappointing. We move on. I just have 3 today, which means a nice profit has been secured for June. Still well behind for the year but building on the good work this month could certainly see a happier figure down the line.
Here we go:
DUROBLE MAN 320 WINDSOR
Finished in the frame every start bar his first one, took a while to win but done it nicely when he did and would have followed up all but for another progressive horse who was bang in form. The 2 finished well clear of the others and signs that it could be a while before the handicapper really gets a tight grip on this one.
PRINCESS HIGHWAY 335 CURRAGH
I've backed her every start and she owes me nothing. I like this horse, she seemingly has lost her way a little since winning at Royal Ascot, and she has a bit of an ask handing weight to the 3yo but she has the best form in the book, if she can rekindle it.
MIJHAAR 515 CURRAGH
Went about his business very takingly on seasonal reappearance having had a little weight taken off his nether regions in the break. He's a pretty solid horse I think the trip will be fine, certainly has to prove it on quicker ground but looks a bit of value for me.
Good Luck
Here we go:
DUROBLE MAN 320 WINDSOR
Finished in the frame every start bar his first one, took a while to win but done it nicely when he did and would have followed up all but for another progressive horse who was bang in form. The 2 finished well clear of the others and signs that it could be a while before the handicapper really gets a tight grip on this one.
PRINCESS HIGHWAY 335 CURRAGH
I've backed her every start and she owes me nothing. I like this horse, she seemingly has lost her way a little since winning at Royal Ascot, and she has a bit of an ask handing weight to the 3yo but she has the best form in the book, if she can rekindle it.
MIJHAAR 515 CURRAGH
Went about his business very takingly on seasonal reappearance having had a little weight taken off his nether regions in the break. He's a pretty solid horse I think the trip will be fine, certainly has to prove it on quicker ground but looks a bit of value for me.
Good Luck
Friday 28 June 2013
Saturday 29-6-13
Morning,
Yesterdays experiment didn't really work so I've sulked and give up already. Have to be quick this morning as working soon. So just bets today.
JUSTINEO 205 NEWCASTLE
PASTORAL PLAYER 330 NEWMARKET
HANKY PANKY 415 CURRAGH
SUGAR BOY 630 CURRAGH
My Scoop6 coupon is
FIG ROLL
JOHANNES
BLUE BAJAN/MUBARAZA
PASTORAL PLAYER
COMPTON
BEAUFORT TWELVE
TENNIS
RISKE and DE SCHEPPER again!!!
And of course Cav to smash stage 1 of Le Tour.
I've done Tejay Van Garderen for a podium, Dan Martin Top 10, Taaramae and Izzaguirre each way for KOM, as my outrights. Looking for someone doing eachway on the teams so I can do BMC, don't think they'll win it though.
Have fun
Yesterdays experiment didn't really work so I've sulked and give up already. Have to be quick this morning as working soon. So just bets today.
JUSTINEO 205 NEWCASTLE
PASTORAL PLAYER 330 NEWMARKET
HANKY PANKY 415 CURRAGH
SUGAR BOY 630 CURRAGH
My Scoop6 coupon is
FIG ROLL
JOHANNES
BLUE BAJAN/MUBARAZA
PASTORAL PLAYER
COMPTON
BEAUFORT TWELVE
TENNIS
RISKE and DE SCHEPPER again!!!
And of course Cav to smash stage 1 of Le Tour.
I've done Tejay Van Garderen for a podium, Dan Martin Top 10, Taaramae and Izzaguirre each way for KOM, as my outrights. Looking for someone doing eachway on the teams so I can do BMC, don't think they'll win it though.
Have fun
Friday 28-6-13 Featuring Newmarket Nights for those going.
Morning all, Another blank yesterday. I'm going back to picking a few for next month, I'll start today. Mostly to see the correlation between LSPs after making a decent profit in June. I'll pop my NAP with some reasons then just list the rest. Also today, upon a few requests, there'll be a little bit for Newmarket tonight. I'm not going myself, but know a few who are and they obviously know the first place to turn to for the best tips. I'm guessing that person wasn't available though, so they've asked me. Just a double in the tennis today, although 1 of them I am waiting for anyway for a 3/4 yankee yesterday.
NAP
ANCIENT CROSS 745 NEWCASTLE
A top handicap sprinter, his only attempt over C&D was this race 2 years ago off the exact mark as today, remarkably under the same jockey. He won! He also won 3 starts ago over this trip at York, proving that the ability is still in there. He was drawn on the right side in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but arguably didn't see out the fast 6f on that occasion. I think the drop back to 5 will suit as will the return to this track. I like this chap anyway, he owes me nothing and I'd love to see him bag another win.
OTHER BETS
STAR LAHIB 725 CHESTER
KINGSCROFT 825 CHESTER
LIGHTNING LAUNCH 900 CHESTER
ALOOF 730 CURRAGH
PARTY ROYAL 410 DONCASTER
ROYAL CAPER 530 MUSSELBURGH
FLOATING ALONG 605 NEWCASTLE
PRUSSIAN 715 NEWCASTLE
DHAULAR DHAR 815 NEWCASTLE
FOSTERS ROAD 355 YARMOUTH
NEWMARKET NIGHTS
I think tonight Newmarket are revisiting my "young adult" era with I believe Blue and Liberty X providing the entertainment. One of my flatmates when I lived in Elephant&Castle had a giant poster of Mrs Pietersen on his wall. Just thought you'd like to know that. Anyway, I'm betting 2 of these personally and you are happy to do what you want with them. But I've been asked so I shall provide. Look at me, I'm becoming the people's tipster. :-p
555 I thought GREYFRIARS CHORISTA is the interesting one here. He just needs to translate his artificial surface form onto the turf and he's well in. Decent efforts last twice have dropped his weight a pound and a very useful jockey takes off a further 5.
630 Maiden Fillies. Lamar is certainly the one to aim at, with the form of her debut being boosted nicely since. But I'm not keen on backing them when they've had a run, unless they looked like they needed that run, because they are often ridiculously short. Sure she outran her odds of 50/1 last time but why now do we believe her worthy of being a 5/4 favourite? I'm looking at the Godolphin newcomer SPELLBIND. She's very nicely bred half sister to Street Sence who was a very smart juvenile. Jockey Harry Bentley has 5 wins and 2 places in 13 rides for Godolphin.
705 I've had a bet on VALLARTA here. He's been running in better races than this so far this term and hasn't really achieved a lot. But he took some time to get going last season before landing 3rd in the Telescope maiden before winning his own next time out. He's dropped in weight too and could well bring up a race by race double for Harry Bentley.
735 Jo Hughes' LONDON BRIDGE comes here looking for a four-timer, she has turned him out quickly under a 6lb penalty but he's come along with really not doing too much to win. Ryan Moore is a huge jockey booking at a meeting like this, and while I know he's not likely come specifically for this ride, he's still very much the best around on a horse that clearly enjoys winning right now.
805 This should be between HALLELUJAH and Mar Mar. The betting and the official ratings certainly suggest that. I just think the former has achieved more so would side there, but couldn't put you off the other with arguably the better jockey of the pair.
840 I've plucked out AMOYA for this. Not been at it for a little while but a win over this trip on quick ground off 2lb higher last summer suggests something could well be round the corner. It takes a lot of rain to soften up the ground at Newmarket, a lot, I think this one has a chance at a nice price in an open race.
910 I have to have a bet on the old boy TAX FREE. This chap might have dropped down the ladder somewhat but his record speaks for itself. He actually has won on 3 of his 7 appearances at Newmarket, including the Group 3 Palace House at the Guineas meeting in 2007. He was a group class sprinter on his day and he won in August last year off 7 pounds higher so must have a chance, at least of a place.
Good Luck, Happy Punting, and if you are going to Newmarket I hope you enjoy the entertainment, or if you are old like me you live after 2 or 3 songs to beat the traffic.
Oh yeah TENNIS
:Like I said just a quick double.
DE SCHEPPER + RISKE
NAP
ANCIENT CROSS 745 NEWCASTLE
A top handicap sprinter, his only attempt over C&D was this race 2 years ago off the exact mark as today, remarkably under the same jockey. He won! He also won 3 starts ago over this trip at York, proving that the ability is still in there. He was drawn on the right side in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but arguably didn't see out the fast 6f on that occasion. I think the drop back to 5 will suit as will the return to this track. I like this chap anyway, he owes me nothing and I'd love to see him bag another win.
OTHER BETS
STAR LAHIB 725 CHESTER
KINGSCROFT 825 CHESTER
LIGHTNING LAUNCH 900 CHESTER
ALOOF 730 CURRAGH
PARTY ROYAL 410 DONCASTER
ROYAL CAPER 530 MUSSELBURGH
FLOATING ALONG 605 NEWCASTLE
PRUSSIAN 715 NEWCASTLE
DHAULAR DHAR 815 NEWCASTLE
FOSTERS ROAD 355 YARMOUTH
NEWMARKET NIGHTS
I think tonight Newmarket are revisiting my "young adult" era with I believe Blue and Liberty X providing the entertainment. One of my flatmates when I lived in Elephant&Castle had a giant poster of Mrs Pietersen on his wall. Just thought you'd like to know that. Anyway, I'm betting 2 of these personally and you are happy to do what you want with them. But I've been asked so I shall provide. Look at me, I'm becoming the people's tipster. :-p
555 I thought GREYFRIARS CHORISTA is the interesting one here. He just needs to translate his artificial surface form onto the turf and he's well in. Decent efforts last twice have dropped his weight a pound and a very useful jockey takes off a further 5.
630 Maiden Fillies. Lamar is certainly the one to aim at, with the form of her debut being boosted nicely since. But I'm not keen on backing them when they've had a run, unless they looked like they needed that run, because they are often ridiculously short. Sure she outran her odds of 50/1 last time but why now do we believe her worthy of being a 5/4 favourite? I'm looking at the Godolphin newcomer SPELLBIND. She's very nicely bred half sister to Street Sence who was a very smart juvenile. Jockey Harry Bentley has 5 wins and 2 places in 13 rides for Godolphin.
705 I've had a bet on VALLARTA here. He's been running in better races than this so far this term and hasn't really achieved a lot. But he took some time to get going last season before landing 3rd in the Telescope maiden before winning his own next time out. He's dropped in weight too and could well bring up a race by race double for Harry Bentley.
735 Jo Hughes' LONDON BRIDGE comes here looking for a four-timer, she has turned him out quickly under a 6lb penalty but he's come along with really not doing too much to win. Ryan Moore is a huge jockey booking at a meeting like this, and while I know he's not likely come specifically for this ride, he's still very much the best around on a horse that clearly enjoys winning right now.
805 This should be between HALLELUJAH and Mar Mar. The betting and the official ratings certainly suggest that. I just think the former has achieved more so would side there, but couldn't put you off the other with arguably the better jockey of the pair.
840 I've plucked out AMOYA for this. Not been at it for a little while but a win over this trip on quick ground off 2lb higher last summer suggests something could well be round the corner. It takes a lot of rain to soften up the ground at Newmarket, a lot, I think this one has a chance at a nice price in an open race.
910 I have to have a bet on the old boy TAX FREE. This chap might have dropped down the ladder somewhat but his record speaks for itself. He actually has won on 3 of his 7 appearances at Newmarket, including the Group 3 Palace House at the Guineas meeting in 2007. He was a group class sprinter on his day and he won in August last year off 7 pounds higher so must have a chance, at least of a place.
Good Luck, Happy Punting, and if you are going to Newmarket I hope you enjoy the entertainment, or if you are old like me you live after 2 or 3 songs to beat the traffic.
Oh yeah TENNIS
:Like I said just a quick double.
DE SCHEPPER + RISKE
Wednesday 26 June 2013
Thursday 27-6-13
Morning all, a blank yesterday. All 3 looked to come with a chance but didn't make it. Never mind. I have 2 today and a yankee for the tennis.
BOXER BEAT 830 TIPPERARY (NAP)
I'M SUPER TOO 920 HAMILTON
TENNIS
J. BLAKE
I. SIJSLING
M. ERAKOVIC
A. RISKE
Good Luck
BOXER BEAT 830 TIPPERARY (NAP)
I'M SUPER TOO 920 HAMILTON
TENNIS
J. BLAKE
I. SIJSLING
M. ERAKOVIC
A. RISKE
Good Luck
Tuesday 25 June 2013
Wednesday 26-6-13
Just a sharp one today. !/3 yesterday.
HEAD OF STEAM 350 SALISBURY
DUSKY QUEEN 505 CARLISLE
STAR ALLIANCE 650 KEMPTON
Good Luck
HEAD OF STEAM 350 SALISBURY
DUSKY QUEEN 505 CARLISLE
STAR ALLIANCE 650 KEMPTON
Good Luck
Monday 24 June 2013
Tuesday 25-6-13
Morning all, shocking day yesterday hopefully better today. Just a quick overview of my bets below.
HORSES
BEACON LADY 215 BRIGHTON
MUNAAWIB 315 BRIGHTON
BOXER BEAT 540 BALLINROBE (NAP)
TENNIS
R. HARRISON
D. BRANDS
M. BARTHEL
P. MARTIC
D. HANTUCHOVA
acca
T. MOORE
single (can she be the british fairytale this year?)
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Debutants to watch
COLOUR OF THE WIND
NORTHERN REACH
PINK MIRAGE
AMBER ISLE (full sister to Dundonnell)
MISS TWEEDY
HORSES
BEACON LADY 215 BRIGHTON
MUNAAWIB 315 BRIGHTON
BOXER BEAT 540 BALLINROBE (NAP)
TENNIS
R. HARRISON
D. BRANDS
M. BARTHEL
P. MARTIC
D. HANTUCHOVA
acca
T. MOORE
single (can she be the british fairytale this year?)
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Debutants to watch
COLOUR OF THE WIND
NORTHERN REACH
PINK MIRAGE
AMBER ISLE (full sister to Dundonnell)
MISS TWEEDY
Monday 24-6-13
Morning all, Main Sequence was very disappointing yesterday, and the other one didn't even run! So onto today. I have 3 on the horses and some tennis bets, just done a couple of little ones as the first round.
HORSES
THIS IS NICE 400 CHEPSTOW (NAP)
DIAMOND VINE 530 CHEPSTOW
KIELTY'S FOLLY 545 WOLVERHAMPTON
TENNIS
REISTER, GICQUEL + HEWITT treble
OUDIN, PENNETTA + TONLJANOVIC treble
DESCHEPPER, JUCIC, HAMPTON, VEKIC, MUGARUZA acca
DONSKOY single
KNITTEL single
REID +2.5sets (w/Paddy Power)
Good Luck and Happy Punting
HORSES
THIS IS NICE 400 CHEPSTOW (NAP)
DIAMOND VINE 530 CHEPSTOW
KIELTY'S FOLLY 545 WOLVERHAMPTON
TENNIS
REISTER, GICQUEL + HEWITT treble
OUDIN, PENNETTA + TONLJANOVIC treble
DESCHEPPER, JUCIC, HAMPTON, VEKIC, MUGARUZA acca
DONSKOY single
KNITTEL single
REID +2.5sets (w/Paddy Power)
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 22 June 2013
Sunday 23-6-13
Good Morning, so the highs, lows, and inbetweens of Royal Ascot are over. We certainly had it all this year. My heart goes out to all those at Warren Place.
Back to reality over here today. An enjoyable week, a few winners found, a few things learnt, a couple of bets restricted to SP during the week. Fair to say I done alright. So, I have 2 bets today, 1 probably a bit chancy but he must be due a win soon, he's 24lb lower than his last!
MAIN SEQUENCE 340 PONTEFRACT
This one is likely going to fluctuate between odds on and against, currently prices are already 10/11-11/10 and in the biggest profile race of the day he is an arbers dream. I think, that aside, he wins. So find yourself an Even money or bigger, I say that as at present only Ladbrokes take him on against and I can't bet with them, genuinely I think this is probably buying money. Last time outs Group 3 second has been franked by the 2 rivals he split both running very well in the Group 1 Prince of Wales stakes on Wednesday, this drop back into listed class will aid. Brown Panther is the danger, I really like the horse but he has needed a run both the last two years and I don't see how that will be any different today.
CHERNIK 400 HEXHAM
I told you I had a chancy one. This horse is prone to an error, and hasn't won for a long time. But...that win came off 95, he's down to 71 here. He has place claims, he ran 2nd 2 starts ago, albeit beaten some way. He's a regular here and likes this sort of trip he's for me the Eachway bet of the day, and you never know.....
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Back to reality over here today. An enjoyable week, a few winners found, a few things learnt, a couple of bets restricted to SP during the week. Fair to say I done alright. So, I have 2 bets today, 1 probably a bit chancy but he must be due a win soon, he's 24lb lower than his last!
MAIN SEQUENCE 340 PONTEFRACT
This one is likely going to fluctuate between odds on and against, currently prices are already 10/11-11/10 and in the biggest profile race of the day he is an arbers dream. I think, that aside, he wins. So find yourself an Even money or bigger, I say that as at present only Ladbrokes take him on against and I can't bet with them, genuinely I think this is probably buying money. Last time outs Group 3 second has been franked by the 2 rivals he split both running very well in the Group 1 Prince of Wales stakes on Wednesday, this drop back into listed class will aid. Brown Panther is the danger, I really like the horse but he has needed a run both the last two years and I don't see how that will be any different today.
CHERNIK 400 HEXHAM
I told you I had a chancy one. This horse is prone to an error, and hasn't won for a long time. But...that win came off 95, he's down to 71 here. He has place claims, he ran 2nd 2 starts ago, albeit beaten some way. He's a regular here and likes this sort of trip he's for me the Eachway bet of the day, and you never know.....
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 22-6-13
Morning. A nice couple of winners yesterday. One in the advised bets, and a couple at Ascot. Sky Lantern certainly paid for my dinner, but my stance on Leading Light most likely paid for a few others'. Unbelievably I have no advised bets today, but still plenty of races to look at. I'll start with Royal Ascot then do the others.
ROYAL ASCOT
230 CHESHAM STAKES
A listed race over 7f for the 2yo. The one I like here is MASTER CARPENTER. Beat a fancied one on debut and then didn't really run his race on second start, potentially outpaced, stepped up in trip and came on nicely with a suggestion that further will suit. The obvious danger is Somewhat who may well have scope to progress further than the selection but I just think that the selection is overpriced on the account that he doesn't come from a fashionable yard. I've had a little each way on the Street Cry filly too, obviously.
305 HARDWICKE STAKES
Noble Mission will be popular as Frankel's brother, but I think the ground will be to quick for him, the more rain today the better. If the rain does come and the clerk moves the official going then I'd be tempted to play for a place. I'm going with the in form Stoute/Moore team and SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD. This is a real step up for him, but he can't really go on longer in handicaps so why not a crack here. Obviously there is proven Group 2 form in here with Aiken, Thomas Chippendale and Universal all having scratched one up in the past.
345 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES
Sadly no Black Caviar here today. My antepost play for this has been GORDON LORD BYRON and I don't feel like deserting now. Was clear on the wrong side in the Duke of York but seems to be with the main protagonists today. A group 1 winner last year and like Society Rock doesn't have to give away weight today like they did at York.
425 WOKINGHAM STAKES
I've picked out 2 from 1 side, and 1 from the other. So hopefully I'll have at least one go close. I'll start with my main one. MORACHE MUSIC. Now, this horse doesn't seem to like winning, so that'll probably put you off. But....he does put himself there or thereabouts on a number of occasions, including in this last year when he ran 4th off 2lb higher. Then over the other side I have the consistent old boy HITCHENS. This horse will love to rattle along on the fast ground, he is piloted by a master in this sort of event in Johnny Murtagh. And then POOLE HARBOUR, who given his yard has often gone off a decent price. Occasionally seems to hit the front too soon perhaps? He's been unlucky a number of occasions. They thought a bit of him early on but he's really kicked on this year. William Twiston Davies takes a useful 5lb off and if he's on the right side could well be a player.
500 DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP
This is a close one for me, I have 4 very closely matched on my system. I've backed them all because I'd be sick if one i left off won. I'll tell you why and you can make your own mind up. OPINION, 3rd in a pretty decent handicap at HQ on May 5th. I wouldn't be at all worried that Ryan Moore is on the other one because Richard Hughes pretty much is Highclere's first choice if he's available. He's won at this level over 10f, arguably has the trip to find at 12 but excuses on first attempt and was decent effort last time. Should be involved. STENCIVE was some way behind opinion that day but was sent off the favourite. It was his first run of the season and he was eased down to finish which was soon after explained as a small problem. If that small problem has been ironed out then again, a solid chance. CARAVAN ROLLS ON. It's interesting they've dropped this one back in trip. Sure last time he didn't offer much when Jamie pressed the button and he is proven over this trip, at this track as well. I expect if things had gone to plan this year they'd have liked to be in the earlier Hardwicke, should go well. BLUE SURF. I like this horse and I give him place claims. Like Opinion solid at 10 and suggestions he'll do it at 12 without the substance. Will need to run to his best here but surely that's the plan for all these horses to run their best at this meeting?
535 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES
I'm playing 1 here. COURTESY CALL, for Nicky Henderson. Not content with dominating Cheltenham and Aintree, he's decided to take on Royal Ascot too, and to success, he had a winner yesterday and a real live chance today. Been performing reasonably over jumps, this horse has solid flat form too with a second in the Cesarewich trial on his last start. He'll need to be better than that to win this but certainly an interesting entrant. Ground will suit also.
Now quickly the best races elsewhere.
300 AYR - LISTED RACE FOR FILLIES
I like James Tate's EL MANATI. The return to better ground should suit as should the return to 5f.
335 AYR - CLASS 2 HANDICAP
COUNTRY WESTERN. Ran well last time out and finished close enough to suggest that with today's jockey claim could well have won and would therefore be rated higher by the handicapper.
400 DOWNROYAL - ULSTER DERBY
I'm siding with the British raider. Mark Johnston's SCATTER DICE. His form stands up to the Irish form in my eyes and has a big chance. MJ doesn't send them over because he likes White Pudding on his breakfast.
405 NEWMARKET - AGRIBANK HANDICAP (CLASS 2)
The best race on the card at the July Course today. I'm siding with DOMINATE. Been beaten in better class recently but looks a fair mark back in handicap company and posted best figures on better ground so should have a squeak.
415 AYR - CLASS 2 HANDICAP
I'm taking a bit of a gamble here as STRICTLY SILVER has the best form but it's on the All Weather. If he can translate that to the turf then he should win and at the price I'm happy to let him try.
435 DOWNROYAL - ULSTER OAKS
SALHOODA gets her first look at a handicap here, albeit a prestigious one. She had no luck in running when over at Chester and as a result of that struggled to get home, but last time out over 9f she looked better the further they went. Provided the mark is okay she has the class to take this and the extra furlong (still 1 shorter than Chester) shouldn't do much harm.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
ROYAL ASCOT
230 CHESHAM STAKES
A listed race over 7f for the 2yo. The one I like here is MASTER CARPENTER. Beat a fancied one on debut and then didn't really run his race on second start, potentially outpaced, stepped up in trip and came on nicely with a suggestion that further will suit. The obvious danger is Somewhat who may well have scope to progress further than the selection but I just think that the selection is overpriced on the account that he doesn't come from a fashionable yard. I've had a little each way on the Street Cry filly too, obviously.
305 HARDWICKE STAKES
Noble Mission will be popular as Frankel's brother, but I think the ground will be to quick for him, the more rain today the better. If the rain does come and the clerk moves the official going then I'd be tempted to play for a place. I'm going with the in form Stoute/Moore team and SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD. This is a real step up for him, but he can't really go on longer in handicaps so why not a crack here. Obviously there is proven Group 2 form in here with Aiken, Thomas Chippendale and Universal all having scratched one up in the past.
345 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES
Sadly no Black Caviar here today. My antepost play for this has been GORDON LORD BYRON and I don't feel like deserting now. Was clear on the wrong side in the Duke of York but seems to be with the main protagonists today. A group 1 winner last year and like Society Rock doesn't have to give away weight today like they did at York.
425 WOKINGHAM STAKES
I've picked out 2 from 1 side, and 1 from the other. So hopefully I'll have at least one go close. I'll start with my main one. MORACHE MUSIC. Now, this horse doesn't seem to like winning, so that'll probably put you off. But....he does put himself there or thereabouts on a number of occasions, including in this last year when he ran 4th off 2lb higher. Then over the other side I have the consistent old boy HITCHENS. This horse will love to rattle along on the fast ground, he is piloted by a master in this sort of event in Johnny Murtagh. And then POOLE HARBOUR, who given his yard has often gone off a decent price. Occasionally seems to hit the front too soon perhaps? He's been unlucky a number of occasions. They thought a bit of him early on but he's really kicked on this year. William Twiston Davies takes a useful 5lb off and if he's on the right side could well be a player.
500 DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP
This is a close one for me, I have 4 very closely matched on my system. I've backed them all because I'd be sick if one i left off won. I'll tell you why and you can make your own mind up. OPINION, 3rd in a pretty decent handicap at HQ on May 5th. I wouldn't be at all worried that Ryan Moore is on the other one because Richard Hughes pretty much is Highclere's first choice if he's available. He's won at this level over 10f, arguably has the trip to find at 12 but excuses on first attempt and was decent effort last time. Should be involved. STENCIVE was some way behind opinion that day but was sent off the favourite. It was his first run of the season and he was eased down to finish which was soon after explained as a small problem. If that small problem has been ironed out then again, a solid chance. CARAVAN ROLLS ON. It's interesting they've dropped this one back in trip. Sure last time he didn't offer much when Jamie pressed the button and he is proven over this trip, at this track as well. I expect if things had gone to plan this year they'd have liked to be in the earlier Hardwicke, should go well. BLUE SURF. I like this horse and I give him place claims. Like Opinion solid at 10 and suggestions he'll do it at 12 without the substance. Will need to run to his best here but surely that's the plan for all these horses to run their best at this meeting?
535 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES
I'm playing 1 here. COURTESY CALL, for Nicky Henderson. Not content with dominating Cheltenham and Aintree, he's decided to take on Royal Ascot too, and to success, he had a winner yesterday and a real live chance today. Been performing reasonably over jumps, this horse has solid flat form too with a second in the Cesarewich trial on his last start. He'll need to be better than that to win this but certainly an interesting entrant. Ground will suit also.
Now quickly the best races elsewhere.
300 AYR - LISTED RACE FOR FILLIES
I like James Tate's EL MANATI. The return to better ground should suit as should the return to 5f.
335 AYR - CLASS 2 HANDICAP
COUNTRY WESTERN. Ran well last time out and finished close enough to suggest that with today's jockey claim could well have won and would therefore be rated higher by the handicapper.
400 DOWNROYAL - ULSTER DERBY
I'm siding with the British raider. Mark Johnston's SCATTER DICE. His form stands up to the Irish form in my eyes and has a big chance. MJ doesn't send them over because he likes White Pudding on his breakfast.
405 NEWMARKET - AGRIBANK HANDICAP (CLASS 2)
The best race on the card at the July Course today. I'm siding with DOMINATE. Been beaten in better class recently but looks a fair mark back in handicap company and posted best figures on better ground so should have a squeak.
415 AYR - CLASS 2 HANDICAP
I'm taking a bit of a gamble here as STRICTLY SILVER has the best form but it's on the All Weather. If he can translate that to the turf then he should win and at the price I'm happy to let him try.
435 DOWNROYAL - ULSTER OAKS
SALHOODA gets her first look at a handicap here, albeit a prestigious one. She had no luck in running when over at Chester and as a result of that struggled to get home, but last time out over 9f she looked better the further they went. Provided the mark is okay she has the class to take this and the extra furlong (still 1 shorter than Chester) shouldn't do much harm.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Friday 21 June 2013
Friday 21-6-13 Royal Ascot Day 4
Hello, greetings, good morning. The lucky last rung true yesterday as Martin Harley burst his charge through the pack to land me a winner, SP 20/1, EP 25. It was an advised bet too so fully appreciated that one. Where I wasn't hugely confident yesterday I am a bit more confident today. I have 2 advised bets, both elsewhere, and they will tag on the bottom.
230 ALBANY STAKES
The showpiece 2yo fillies race for me, the winner of this will most likely become an early fancy for next years 1000 guineas. Now, Sandiva has the best form in the book, Royal Ascot is crying out for a Frankie winner to complete the fairytale that this week is fast becoming. She's short enough for me to let her win. Joyeuse would be another very poignant winner for the Cecil team, especially as she's a half sister to their megastar Frankel. For me she'll need to be a lot more forward now than on debut, which chances are she will be, or she could find this race getting away from her. There's no doubting the ability is there, but the same as the rest of the family the attitude is questionable. My main bet is for KIYOSHI. She began life in that Newmarket maiden that gave us Queen Mary winner Rizeena. She came on nicely for that run to pull away with a maiden over this trip at Goodwood. I also like the other Qatar racing entrant RACE HUNTER, I backed her on debut (because of the Street Cry connection) and she was pretty impressive. Johnny Murtagh bagged a winner for the owners on Tuesday and could well do so again. Finally WEDDING RING. Oh how Godolphin would like a winner here this week, it would certainly raise their spirits. This little lady enters under Saeed Bin Suroors watchful eye but sits in the controversial Moulton Paddocks. For the team at Moulton Paddocks a Royal Ascot winner would be just what the doctor ordered, they work hard and are extremely passionate about their jobs, for such a dark shadow to be cast over them is not nice, and certainly not easy. I'm aware that the yard are pretty keen on this one. She put up nice figures in the Newmarket maiden won by last years winner Newfangled and can certainly make the step up here.
305 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
This is a weak Group 2, the favourite Battle of Marengo should, could, is able to, win this on the bridle. Honestly I couldn't have put up any of these as a banker for yesterdays Group 3 Tercentenary, in fact the winner of that could have been arguably put up to win this. But again, I'm not backing something at 8/11 to win at Royal Ascot, what's the point? Granted that's probably value, the horse came 4th in the Derby for goodness sake! I'm going to put up an each way. THA'IR. He is a festival winner, which counts for a lot here. Last time out over 10f he just failed to pull in the game Hoarding, he ran no race yesterday though, but arguably another 50 yards and he could have probably gone past. So by New Approach, the step up to 12 could suit and dams side confirms as Dam's half sister went close in the Ribblesdale. I think he's a solid price for a claim in a weak race.
345 CORONATION STAKES
In my opinion, this is THE race of the festival. It is so, so, so close. I'll start with the winner, :-p, SKY LANTERN. She is a classy filly, she is already her late sire's greatest achievement, and she'll go on to do even more. Connections have pretty much said that they intend to sweep up the fillies mile events before sending her to have babies. I like her, a lot. She has a wide draw, and the yard isn't in form, but class horses get you out of a hole. And she is a class horse. She fits the trends, has the best form in the book, she's too big a price. But....I'll just suggest as to why this is an excellent race. Just the Judge 2nd in the English Guineas, winner of the Irish, was her win in the Irish Guineas as good as her perfomance in the English, I'd suggest probably not, and therefore I can't have her reverse the form, especially as she is drawn right next to SL. Viztoria, this is a good horse. I backed her on debut for the sole reason that Darshaan is the leading broodmare sire for Oratorio, and she won, at 33/1. She stepped up on that straight away with a listed win and then ran a cracker over in France. She won her comeback race as a 3yo pretty comfortably without too many questions and she looks like she'll find the mile no bother. The 2 juddmonte horses Big Break and Pavlosk are the progressive sorts in the race, although it's proven so far this week that substance over speculation is the key and it's better to back on what you know or have seen, compared to what you have heard. An interesting outsider is Purr Along. Her second to Certify in the May Hill is one of the better bits of form on offer, and she's a Group 3 winner in France. Maybe she's had enough by the time she's got to Longchamp in October and it's pretty tough to make your seasonal reappearance in a race as strong as this.
425 WOLFERTON HANDICAP
I like FATTSOTA here, only 4lb higher than a course win last October, he has positive lines with a few he's reopposing, Jockey will be on a high from achieving first festival winner yesterday. Tricky race, my saver is LABARINTO.
500 QUEENS VASE (In Memory of Sir Henry Cecil)
2m for 3yo olds, nothing in this race has gone this far. Right I'll start with the 2/1 favourite. Okay just spotted he's now into 7/4! Where is he going to find the stamina? Okay, I'll refer back where I said that a horse can run any trip, it's how they settle that helps them stay, but... there needs to be some evidence. There is NO stayers down the female line! The stamina argument can only come from the female line of the sire Montjeu, and the female line of the sire isn't where I'd suggest you start looking for stamina. Even when you look at the Montjeu progeny that stayed, Masked Marvel had bags of stamina down the female line, Fame and Glory dam was by a jumps sire, I can't have it. I haven't taken a layers stance this week yet, but this is the one for me. Another reason is the jockey, now Joseph gets a lot of unfair stick because of the hype surrounding the horses he gets to sit on. You only have to look at how he cleaned up the Irish apprentice races when eligible to see he is head and shoulders above his peers and a major talent, but he has come up short when needing to ride a horse for a trip, most notably Camelot in the Leger. I cannot have this favourite at all. So what do we take it on with? I'll tell you, and there won't be a dry eye in the house when Lady Cecil and Tom Queally bring DISCLAIMER into the winners enclosure of the race that's being run in honour of the late, great Sir Henry. Unlike the favourite, a look down the female line shows 14s/15s, jumpers. He hasn't met a lot, but he's done what he's had to do and done it well, getting better each time in the process. I'll give you an each way also, BAIHAS. He looks a horse let me tell you. His Dam Allegretto was a staying machine. Prix Royal Oak, Park Hill, Goodwood Cup, Henry II stakes, all on her CV, she was even a length second in another Royal Oak to the great Yeats. A typical Makhtoum sort in that he isn't very forward but he seems to be getting better, and certainly has looked like getting faster the further he goes. It wouldn't be a shock to me if he won this but I'd rather Disclaimer won, but mark my words this horse could certainly be a Gold Cup winner in the future.
535 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES
Todays Cavalry charge is the Class 2 Buckingham Palace. Before you follow the funny money on Enrol, bear in mind that the last winner of this under double figure odds was in 2005. I've got 4 here from notebooks and a little formline study, I've backed them all each way. None seem really waited out of it, the form of these races you can pretty much make the same sort of cases for any of the contestants so I'll not sit here and blow smoke up your arse. My 4 are CAMPANOLOGY, DREAM TUNE, LOVING SPIRIT and JACK'S REVENGE.
ADVISED BETS
BAR DE LIGNE 330 MARKET RASEN
THE BLACK JACOBIN 855 GOODWOOD
Good Luck and Happy Punting
230 ALBANY STAKES
The showpiece 2yo fillies race for me, the winner of this will most likely become an early fancy for next years 1000 guineas. Now, Sandiva has the best form in the book, Royal Ascot is crying out for a Frankie winner to complete the fairytale that this week is fast becoming. She's short enough for me to let her win. Joyeuse would be another very poignant winner for the Cecil team, especially as she's a half sister to their megastar Frankel. For me she'll need to be a lot more forward now than on debut, which chances are she will be, or she could find this race getting away from her. There's no doubting the ability is there, but the same as the rest of the family the attitude is questionable. My main bet is for KIYOSHI. She began life in that Newmarket maiden that gave us Queen Mary winner Rizeena. She came on nicely for that run to pull away with a maiden over this trip at Goodwood. I also like the other Qatar racing entrant RACE HUNTER, I backed her on debut (because of the Street Cry connection) and she was pretty impressive. Johnny Murtagh bagged a winner for the owners on Tuesday and could well do so again. Finally WEDDING RING. Oh how Godolphin would like a winner here this week, it would certainly raise their spirits. This little lady enters under Saeed Bin Suroors watchful eye but sits in the controversial Moulton Paddocks. For the team at Moulton Paddocks a Royal Ascot winner would be just what the doctor ordered, they work hard and are extremely passionate about their jobs, for such a dark shadow to be cast over them is not nice, and certainly not easy. I'm aware that the yard are pretty keen on this one. She put up nice figures in the Newmarket maiden won by last years winner Newfangled and can certainly make the step up here.
305 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
This is a weak Group 2, the favourite Battle of Marengo should, could, is able to, win this on the bridle. Honestly I couldn't have put up any of these as a banker for yesterdays Group 3 Tercentenary, in fact the winner of that could have been arguably put up to win this. But again, I'm not backing something at 8/11 to win at Royal Ascot, what's the point? Granted that's probably value, the horse came 4th in the Derby for goodness sake! I'm going to put up an each way. THA'IR. He is a festival winner, which counts for a lot here. Last time out over 10f he just failed to pull in the game Hoarding, he ran no race yesterday though, but arguably another 50 yards and he could have probably gone past. So by New Approach, the step up to 12 could suit and dams side confirms as Dam's half sister went close in the Ribblesdale. I think he's a solid price for a claim in a weak race.
345 CORONATION STAKES
In my opinion, this is THE race of the festival. It is so, so, so close. I'll start with the winner, :-p, SKY LANTERN. She is a classy filly, she is already her late sire's greatest achievement, and she'll go on to do even more. Connections have pretty much said that they intend to sweep up the fillies mile events before sending her to have babies. I like her, a lot. She has a wide draw, and the yard isn't in form, but class horses get you out of a hole. And she is a class horse. She fits the trends, has the best form in the book, she's too big a price. But....I'll just suggest as to why this is an excellent race. Just the Judge 2nd in the English Guineas, winner of the Irish, was her win in the Irish Guineas as good as her perfomance in the English, I'd suggest probably not, and therefore I can't have her reverse the form, especially as she is drawn right next to SL. Viztoria, this is a good horse. I backed her on debut for the sole reason that Darshaan is the leading broodmare sire for Oratorio, and she won, at 33/1. She stepped up on that straight away with a listed win and then ran a cracker over in France. She won her comeback race as a 3yo pretty comfortably without too many questions and she looks like she'll find the mile no bother. The 2 juddmonte horses Big Break and Pavlosk are the progressive sorts in the race, although it's proven so far this week that substance over speculation is the key and it's better to back on what you know or have seen, compared to what you have heard. An interesting outsider is Purr Along. Her second to Certify in the May Hill is one of the better bits of form on offer, and she's a Group 3 winner in France. Maybe she's had enough by the time she's got to Longchamp in October and it's pretty tough to make your seasonal reappearance in a race as strong as this.
425 WOLFERTON HANDICAP
I like FATTSOTA here, only 4lb higher than a course win last October, he has positive lines with a few he's reopposing, Jockey will be on a high from achieving first festival winner yesterday. Tricky race, my saver is LABARINTO.
500 QUEENS VASE (In Memory of Sir Henry Cecil)
2m for 3yo olds, nothing in this race has gone this far. Right I'll start with the 2/1 favourite. Okay just spotted he's now into 7/4! Where is he going to find the stamina? Okay, I'll refer back where I said that a horse can run any trip, it's how they settle that helps them stay, but... there needs to be some evidence. There is NO stayers down the female line! The stamina argument can only come from the female line of the sire Montjeu, and the female line of the sire isn't where I'd suggest you start looking for stamina. Even when you look at the Montjeu progeny that stayed, Masked Marvel had bags of stamina down the female line, Fame and Glory dam was by a jumps sire, I can't have it. I haven't taken a layers stance this week yet, but this is the one for me. Another reason is the jockey, now Joseph gets a lot of unfair stick because of the hype surrounding the horses he gets to sit on. You only have to look at how he cleaned up the Irish apprentice races when eligible to see he is head and shoulders above his peers and a major talent, but he has come up short when needing to ride a horse for a trip, most notably Camelot in the Leger. I cannot have this favourite at all. So what do we take it on with? I'll tell you, and there won't be a dry eye in the house when Lady Cecil and Tom Queally bring DISCLAIMER into the winners enclosure of the race that's being run in honour of the late, great Sir Henry. Unlike the favourite, a look down the female line shows 14s/15s, jumpers. He hasn't met a lot, but he's done what he's had to do and done it well, getting better each time in the process. I'll give you an each way also, BAIHAS. He looks a horse let me tell you. His Dam Allegretto was a staying machine. Prix Royal Oak, Park Hill, Goodwood Cup, Henry II stakes, all on her CV, she was even a length second in another Royal Oak to the great Yeats. A typical Makhtoum sort in that he isn't very forward but he seems to be getting better, and certainly has looked like getting faster the further he goes. It wouldn't be a shock to me if he won this but I'd rather Disclaimer won, but mark my words this horse could certainly be a Gold Cup winner in the future.
535 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES
Todays Cavalry charge is the Class 2 Buckingham Palace. Before you follow the funny money on Enrol, bear in mind that the last winner of this under double figure odds was in 2005. I've got 4 here from notebooks and a little formline study, I've backed them all each way. None seem really waited out of it, the form of these races you can pretty much make the same sort of cases for any of the contestants so I'll not sit here and blow smoke up your arse. My 4 are CAMPANOLOGY, DREAM TUNE, LOVING SPIRIT and JACK'S REVENGE.
ADVISED BETS
BAR DE LIGNE 330 MARKET RASEN
THE BLACK JACOBIN 855 GOODWOOD
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Thursday 20 June 2013
Thursday 20-6-13 Royal Ascot Day 3
Good morning. I'm not nearly as confident today as I was yesterday. I'll give my bets as usual, maybe highlighting some dangers along the way, but as a whole the cards just don't inspire me. Obviously I hope I can win some money, that is always the aim, but I'm not steaming into anything today. There is no Duntle or Dawn Approach here. My advised bets will follow as always. I have 3 today.
ROYAL ASCOT
230 NORFOLK STAKES
A 5f Group 2 for the 2yo. Want a spooky stat, the last 3 winners all ran an RPR of 91 in the start prior. So to match that again you are looking at Legend Rising and Royal Mezyan. Coach House's Marble Hill win sets the standard here, but I'm looking at a price. WIND FIRE, the only filly in the race, stepped up nicely on a promising debut. It's a big ask to take this but a similar progression to a third run could certainly see her challenging to make the frame.
305 RIBBLESDALE STAKES
Alive Alive Oh was very impressive last time out landing the Salsabil Stakes, but she's short enough to let win. I'm trying to pinch an overprice again here with GERTRUDE VERSED. She was only beaten in the Cheshire Oaks by one that rattled home and ran to much the same rating in the Epsom Oaks despite being hampered when winding up her run. This is nowhere near the strength of the Epsom classic, yet she's currently a bigger price than she went off there. Elik reopposes from Chester having finished behind, yet is 8/1 whereby my selection is 28/1. Silly really.
345 GOLD CUP
The real showpiece staying event. We have last years winner Colour Vision, the once-a-year wonder Rite of Passage, some solid dual purpose performers. But, not really a superstar. There's no Yeats, no Fame and Glory. The one I'm going for is HIGH JINX. He's been screaming out for a real staying test and is a decent bit of value.
425 BRITANNIA STAKES
I.m having a go at 3, it was 4 but one has been pulled. The first is KYLLACHY RISE. Was given a fancy tilt at the 2000 Guineas but was out of his depth there, he's proven since the switch to Richard Hannon that he wants the mile and could be well in here. On his start prior to the Guineas the Racing Post handicapper gave him an 89, the official handicapper has him at 88. Next up is MARKET TOWN. Only 4 starts and each one has been an improvement on the last. Interesting jockey booking too. Finally another big price but with trip to prove is CAPO ROSSO for the Dascombe/Kingscote team that do so well here.
500 TERCENTENARY STAKES
I've picked 2 to Dutch for the win and then 1 who could get involved at a big price. I actually quite like this renewal, it's not bad for a Group 3. I'll start with ELKAAYED, this is a step up in class but he has gotten better and better with each start and if some of the more fancied have hit the cieling this one could just go right past. The WINDHOEK, struggled in the Dante but was close enough to reopposing rivals to suggest he can challenge again, Looks a tough horse and this could well turn into a scrap. Finally, HOARDING. Game as they come this horse, has it to find with a couple here but ran his best race ever last time out and Ryan Moore booked for the ride is as eyecatching as they come.
535 KING GEORGE V STAKES
First impressions were this, well there's certainly no Brown Panther in this is there? ELIDOR actually pops up as an advised bet! Which is a little confusing on face value as he's still a maiden attacking a class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot. To be fair he's probably unlucky to be a maiden having been touched off by Mad Moose at Doncaster, who was given a terrific ride that day. Intriguiing mark for his handicap debut. PASAKA BOY was behing him in the Lingfield Derby trial. Trainer/Jocley combo picked up the last yesterday and that has sort of pushed him up my shortlist a little. Finally, SPILLWAY, a useful winner 2 starts ago at Sandown probably wasn't given the greatest chance next time out and could well return to form today.
ADVISED BETS
ELIDOR 535 ROYAL ASCOT
MARHABA MAYALEEN 320 RIPON
MUNAAWIB 550 WARWICK
Good Luck and Happy Punting
ROYAL ASCOT
230 NORFOLK STAKES
A 5f Group 2 for the 2yo. Want a spooky stat, the last 3 winners all ran an RPR of 91 in the start prior. So to match that again you are looking at Legend Rising and Royal Mezyan. Coach House's Marble Hill win sets the standard here, but I'm looking at a price. WIND FIRE, the only filly in the race, stepped up nicely on a promising debut. It's a big ask to take this but a similar progression to a third run could certainly see her challenging to make the frame.
305 RIBBLESDALE STAKES
Alive Alive Oh was very impressive last time out landing the Salsabil Stakes, but she's short enough to let win. I'm trying to pinch an overprice again here with GERTRUDE VERSED. She was only beaten in the Cheshire Oaks by one that rattled home and ran to much the same rating in the Epsom Oaks despite being hampered when winding up her run. This is nowhere near the strength of the Epsom classic, yet she's currently a bigger price than she went off there. Elik reopposes from Chester having finished behind, yet is 8/1 whereby my selection is 28/1. Silly really.
345 GOLD CUP
The real showpiece staying event. We have last years winner Colour Vision, the once-a-year wonder Rite of Passage, some solid dual purpose performers. But, not really a superstar. There's no Yeats, no Fame and Glory. The one I'm going for is HIGH JINX. He's been screaming out for a real staying test and is a decent bit of value.
425 BRITANNIA STAKES
I.m having a go at 3, it was 4 but one has been pulled. The first is KYLLACHY RISE. Was given a fancy tilt at the 2000 Guineas but was out of his depth there, he's proven since the switch to Richard Hannon that he wants the mile and could be well in here. On his start prior to the Guineas the Racing Post handicapper gave him an 89, the official handicapper has him at 88. Next up is MARKET TOWN. Only 4 starts and each one has been an improvement on the last. Interesting jockey booking too. Finally another big price but with trip to prove is CAPO ROSSO for the Dascombe/Kingscote team that do so well here.
500 TERCENTENARY STAKES
I've picked 2 to Dutch for the win and then 1 who could get involved at a big price. I actually quite like this renewal, it's not bad for a Group 3. I'll start with ELKAAYED, this is a step up in class but he has gotten better and better with each start and if some of the more fancied have hit the cieling this one could just go right past. The WINDHOEK, struggled in the Dante but was close enough to reopposing rivals to suggest he can challenge again, Looks a tough horse and this could well turn into a scrap. Finally, HOARDING. Game as they come this horse, has it to find with a couple here but ran his best race ever last time out and Ryan Moore booked for the ride is as eyecatching as they come.
535 KING GEORGE V STAKES
First impressions were this, well there's certainly no Brown Panther in this is there? ELIDOR actually pops up as an advised bet! Which is a little confusing on face value as he's still a maiden attacking a class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot. To be fair he's probably unlucky to be a maiden having been touched off by Mad Moose at Doncaster, who was given a terrific ride that day. Intriguiing mark for his handicap debut. PASAKA BOY was behing him in the Lingfield Derby trial. Trainer/Jocley combo picked up the last yesterday and that has sort of pushed him up my shortlist a little. Finally, SPILLWAY, a useful winner 2 starts ago at Sandown probably wasn't given the greatest chance next time out and could well return to form today.
ADVISED BETS
ELIDOR 535 ROYAL ASCOT
MARHABA MAYALEEN 320 RIPON
MUNAAWIB 550 WARWICK
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Wednesday 19-6-13 Royal Ascot Day 2
Morning. A pretty poor showing for me on the first day of Ascot. It wasn't all doom and gloom mind as a strong stance on Dawn Approach paid off and then a lovely drift on advised bet Hill of Dreams yesterday evening secured a massive profit for the blog and eased the pain of the Ascot betting, which due to some very poor discipline was a bad day for me. Anyway I'll get on. I'll start with Royal Ascot. I won't analyse the races to much extent, a) there are many out there better at that than me, and b) I simply don't have the time. I shall just pop up my main bet and reasons why, plus a couple offers that entered my calculations where necessary.
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 2
230 JERSEY STAKES
I really like GALE FORCE TEN for this, second in the Irish Guineas, much like last years winner, even then there can be questions as to whether he could have done better given how the race panned out. Obvious dangers need to step up to challenge him on the form. Music Master was one that interested me to maybe nick a place a a price. Henry Candy's charge has progressed nicely, taking just 2 runs to relieve maiden tag then a big run behind Dundonnell in listed company.
305 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (Windsor Forest)
A mile Group 2 for fillies. I backed the winner of this 2 years ago and I'm in with the same trainer this year with what is an advised bet. DUNTLE. Technically she's a group 1 winner, but escapes the penalty attached, presumably because it was a dead heat? She is versatile over the ground and has a course and distance win from the Sandringham at last years festival. She's in my Tentofollow and I'm following. Chigun rates the biggest danger and would be roared into the winners box, and Thistle Bird is a mare I like a lot, But DUNTLE should be the class act here.
345 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES
So we continue with the male heirage to the throne branding dominance. Seriously though this is the Al Kazeem v Camelot rematch. I can't see either going too far below 2/1 so if you want to play each of two you've a pretty solid chance of making a profit. I'm going to throw one in for the frame at a pretty monster price. MIBLISH. He will need to step up. However looking at form he was within quarter of a length to a horse that placed in a World Cup. He wasn't far away after a good run in the Brigadier Gerard. Then you hit the sentiment. Ignoring the Sungate allegations (I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a short list of those that haven't been caught up in that come the end of it all) How many times has Clive Brittain managed to throw something in Mr Manana's silks into the frame when the market has effectively given no chance. Ryan Moore in the saddle too gives it a boost.
425 ROYAL HUNT CUP
I'm possibly going to get burnt here as I picked out 3 I liked and they are all down the same side! TRADE COMMISSIONER, GLOBAL VILLAGE and PREMIO LOCO. The first one and main selection really progressed over the summer last year and I see no reason he can't play a big role here back in handicaps. Obviously because all 3 of mine are drawn low it would be nice to just have an interest across the field so I've looked at EDUCATE down the middle-ish and SWEET LIGHTNING up high, how good would that be for Johnny Murtagh after riding a double yesterday to then saddle one as a trainer?
500 QUEEN MARY STAKES
A group 2 sprint for fillies. I like Clive Brittain's RIZEENA. She's progressed nicely and comes here with every chance. Kaiulani made a nice debut and that form has been franked.
535 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
I'm siding with French Guineas 4th ZURIGHA for Hughes and Hannon. That is very much the best piece of form on offer. Hint of a tint comes over from Ireland with a huge chance and Sorella Bella could well get involved if she can recapture her Italian form.
ADVISED BETS
DUNTLE 305 ROYAL ASCOT
SHAMROCKED 650 RIPON
PURCELL 910 KEMPTON
Good Luck and Happy Punting
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 2
230 JERSEY STAKES
I really like GALE FORCE TEN for this, second in the Irish Guineas, much like last years winner, even then there can be questions as to whether he could have done better given how the race panned out. Obvious dangers need to step up to challenge him on the form. Music Master was one that interested me to maybe nick a place a a price. Henry Candy's charge has progressed nicely, taking just 2 runs to relieve maiden tag then a big run behind Dundonnell in listed company.
305 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (Windsor Forest)
A mile Group 2 for fillies. I backed the winner of this 2 years ago and I'm in with the same trainer this year with what is an advised bet. DUNTLE. Technically she's a group 1 winner, but escapes the penalty attached, presumably because it was a dead heat? She is versatile over the ground and has a course and distance win from the Sandringham at last years festival. She's in my Tentofollow and I'm following. Chigun rates the biggest danger and would be roared into the winners box, and Thistle Bird is a mare I like a lot, But DUNTLE should be the class act here.
345 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES
So we continue with the male heirage to the throne branding dominance. Seriously though this is the Al Kazeem v Camelot rematch. I can't see either going too far below 2/1 so if you want to play each of two you've a pretty solid chance of making a profit. I'm going to throw one in for the frame at a pretty monster price. MIBLISH. He will need to step up. However looking at form he was within quarter of a length to a horse that placed in a World Cup. He wasn't far away after a good run in the Brigadier Gerard. Then you hit the sentiment. Ignoring the Sungate allegations (I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a short list of those that haven't been caught up in that come the end of it all) How many times has Clive Brittain managed to throw something in Mr Manana's silks into the frame when the market has effectively given no chance. Ryan Moore in the saddle too gives it a boost.
425 ROYAL HUNT CUP
I'm possibly going to get burnt here as I picked out 3 I liked and they are all down the same side! TRADE COMMISSIONER, GLOBAL VILLAGE and PREMIO LOCO. The first one and main selection really progressed over the summer last year and I see no reason he can't play a big role here back in handicaps. Obviously because all 3 of mine are drawn low it would be nice to just have an interest across the field so I've looked at EDUCATE down the middle-ish and SWEET LIGHTNING up high, how good would that be for Johnny Murtagh after riding a double yesterday to then saddle one as a trainer?
500 QUEEN MARY STAKES
A group 2 sprint for fillies. I like Clive Brittain's RIZEENA. She's progressed nicely and comes here with every chance. Kaiulani made a nice debut and that form has been franked.
535 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
I'm siding with French Guineas 4th ZURIGHA for Hughes and Hannon. That is very much the best piece of form on offer. Hint of a tint comes over from Ireland with a huge chance and Sorella Bella could well get involved if she can recapture her Italian form.
ADVISED BETS
DUNTLE 305 ROYAL ASCOT
SHAMROCKED 650 RIPON
PURCELL 910 KEMPTON
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Monday 17 June 2013
Tuesday 18-6-13 - Royal Ascot Day 1
Morning all. For Ascot I shall just chuck up the horses I've considered for each race. I'll tell you what I'm betting on. Then I shall list my advised bets underneath. I won't have time to write up the advised bets sadly as I still have a lot to do before the trials of getting the eldest ready and to school. There is 1 advised bet at Royal Ascot though. All other Ascot advice is merely a guide and won't be calculated towards the stats. But believe you me I always get carried away at these big meetings and bet like a knob so you won't do worse than me!
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 1
230 QUEEN ANNE STAKES
So we have the Kentucky Derby and World Cup winning Animal Kingdom in here, at odds on. On that form yeah sure he should be odds on, but who wants to take him on? Why not? The only race he's won on turf was worth $18000, there's doubts about him doing the business in a straight line. Elusive Kate is the obvious answer, she gets a sex allowance. But I'm going elsewhere. SOVEREIGN DEBT was very close to EK on Champions Day last year here, and his run in the Lockinge, for me, was a step up on that. I think if he comes on again he can certainly fill the frame, and at 14/1 certainly holds value.
305 KINGS STAND STAKES
I'm already very much into RECKLESS ABANDON antepost, to the extent that without going back through every betting account history I have absolutely no idea how much I'm due if he wins! So I really can't put more on him today. I'm going to take a couple of speculative each ways. PEARL SECRET. This horse travels beautifully, he's a monster. Sadly the dream was disrupted in the Nunthorpe when he was drawn badly and never really had a chance. I like him, the trainer likes him, why not have a go. I know he hasn't had a run yet this year, but I fail to see how the trainer wouldn't have him as fully wound up as possible for this. And also KINGSGATE NATIVE. Robert Cowell has breathed life back into this horse, and sprinters are very much streaky beings, an excellent effort to land the Temple Stakes it's surely worth chancing him going in again.
345 ST JAMES PALACE STAKES
DAWN APPROACH is an advised bet today. Might be worth waiting and waiting as people will be out to get him after his Derby performance, and rightly so he put in a stinker. But he showed in the Guineas that he is a class animal and connections say they've no issues with running him here. Can anything get close? Not if he's back to his best no.
425 COVENTRY STAKES
My favourite race of the meeting. Most likely because I've backed the winner 5 of the last 6 years. It's not quite the puzzle it appears. The market is usually spot on or at least very near to the mark. You can almost write off anything at double figures, and unbeaten horses or certainly those that won last start. I'm going for the 3/3 THUNDERSTRIKE, I just can't help thinking Richard Hughes has gotten on the wrong horse. This would be a hugely popular winner with Frankie on top and at 9/1 even an each way price for the conservative. Ill be on the nose, I've only jut started getting involved in the each way business I feel a little dirty and about 12/1 is the real minimum I'm willing to go.
500 ASCOT STAKES
I 2m4 handicap. I'm certainly not going balls deep here. Jumps trainers do pretty well in this race usually. That being said the one I'm looking at is JUSTIFICATION for Aidan O'Brien. He put in a decent effort staying on in the Chester Cup so shouldn't find the trip disagreeable. This will be a real test for young Joseph as these races take a great deal of maturity.
535 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES
Again a race not to get carried away. Traditionally the bookies leave on a high with this. That being said on last years guide I put up 6 and 3 of them made up the first 3. I won't put up 6 today, just a couple. ANDHESONTHERUN, for Roger Varian. 2nd only to a good one last time out, this despite the size of the field really isn't a strong race and he'll not need much progression to get involved. And JUSTICE DAY. Had a few runs and been sent off short since beating a Hannon hotpot on debut. Worth a play at the price as he's been pretty consistent in his runs.
ADVISED BETS
DAWN APPROACH 345 ROYAL ASCOT
CRUCHAIN 320 STRATFORD
HILL OF DREAMS 710 KEMPTON
SOUTH CAPE 800 BRIGHTON
Good Luck and Happy Punting
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 1
230 QUEEN ANNE STAKES
So we have the Kentucky Derby and World Cup winning Animal Kingdom in here, at odds on. On that form yeah sure he should be odds on, but who wants to take him on? Why not? The only race he's won on turf was worth $18000, there's doubts about him doing the business in a straight line. Elusive Kate is the obvious answer, she gets a sex allowance. But I'm going elsewhere. SOVEREIGN DEBT was very close to EK on Champions Day last year here, and his run in the Lockinge, for me, was a step up on that. I think if he comes on again he can certainly fill the frame, and at 14/1 certainly holds value.
305 KINGS STAND STAKES
I'm already very much into RECKLESS ABANDON antepost, to the extent that without going back through every betting account history I have absolutely no idea how much I'm due if he wins! So I really can't put more on him today. I'm going to take a couple of speculative each ways. PEARL SECRET. This horse travels beautifully, he's a monster. Sadly the dream was disrupted in the Nunthorpe when he was drawn badly and never really had a chance. I like him, the trainer likes him, why not have a go. I know he hasn't had a run yet this year, but I fail to see how the trainer wouldn't have him as fully wound up as possible for this. And also KINGSGATE NATIVE. Robert Cowell has breathed life back into this horse, and sprinters are very much streaky beings, an excellent effort to land the Temple Stakes it's surely worth chancing him going in again.
345 ST JAMES PALACE STAKES
DAWN APPROACH is an advised bet today. Might be worth waiting and waiting as people will be out to get him after his Derby performance, and rightly so he put in a stinker. But he showed in the Guineas that he is a class animal and connections say they've no issues with running him here. Can anything get close? Not if he's back to his best no.
425 COVENTRY STAKES
My favourite race of the meeting. Most likely because I've backed the winner 5 of the last 6 years. It's not quite the puzzle it appears. The market is usually spot on or at least very near to the mark. You can almost write off anything at double figures, and unbeaten horses or certainly those that won last start. I'm going for the 3/3 THUNDERSTRIKE, I just can't help thinking Richard Hughes has gotten on the wrong horse. This would be a hugely popular winner with Frankie on top and at 9/1 even an each way price for the conservative. Ill be on the nose, I've only jut started getting involved in the each way business I feel a little dirty and about 12/1 is the real minimum I'm willing to go.
500 ASCOT STAKES
I 2m4 handicap. I'm certainly not going balls deep here. Jumps trainers do pretty well in this race usually. That being said the one I'm looking at is JUSTIFICATION for Aidan O'Brien. He put in a decent effort staying on in the Chester Cup so shouldn't find the trip disagreeable. This will be a real test for young Joseph as these races take a great deal of maturity.
535 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES
Again a race not to get carried away. Traditionally the bookies leave on a high with this. That being said on last years guide I put up 6 and 3 of them made up the first 3. I won't put up 6 today, just a couple. ANDHESONTHERUN, for Roger Varian. 2nd only to a good one last time out, this despite the size of the field really isn't a strong race and he'll not need much progression to get involved. And JUSTICE DAY. Had a few runs and been sent off short since beating a Hannon hotpot on debut. Worth a play at the price as he's been pretty consistent in his runs.
ADVISED BETS
DAWN APPROACH 345 ROYAL ASCOT
CRUCHAIN 320 STRATFORD
HILL OF DREAMS 710 KEMPTON
SOUTH CAPE 800 BRIGHTON
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 16 June 2013
Monday 17-6-13
Morning all, and glad I never had a bet yesterday, because I'd have nothing to show for it. I have 2 today.
RAKAAN 805 WINDSOR
This is a race full of those horses that pop up now and then and you sit there to yourself and say, "I've backed that bloody one a few times!" This horse hasn't obliged on turf since 2010, but as a result has slowly slid down the handicappers ladder and is eligible for this event. He wouldn't have won last time but struggled for room at a point and is probably better value than the bare 6th suggests. I think things are prime for this to have a chance tonight. We'll see...
POSTSCRIPT 850 WARWICK
His last 4 races down in cls4 have been 1331, Today's pilot Jamie Spencer rode him to his last win off exact mark of today's effort at Sandown. Big chance, he's going to have his supporters too.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
RAKAAN 805 WINDSOR
This is a race full of those horses that pop up now and then and you sit there to yourself and say, "I've backed that bloody one a few times!" This horse hasn't obliged on turf since 2010, but as a result has slowly slid down the handicappers ladder and is eligible for this event. He wouldn't have won last time but struggled for room at a point and is probably better value than the bare 6th suggests. I think things are prime for this to have a chance tonight. We'll see...
POSTSCRIPT 850 WARWICK
His last 4 races down in cls4 have been 1331, Today's pilot Jamie Spencer rode him to his last win off exact mark of today's effort at Sandown. Big chance, he's going to have his supporters too.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 15 June 2013
Sunday 16-6-13
Morning all, 1 win from 3 that went to post yesterday.
NO ADVISED BETS TODAY
but....
As I said yesterday I shall try and make brief mention of the better races each day.
400 SALISBURY
The Cathedral Stakes, a Listed contest. Richard Hannon's professor is flattered by his official numbers, in my opinion, and could well be worth taking on. The one i think most likely to put up a challenge is MORACHE MUSIC. Lets just look at the Official numbers quickly. Prof, beat horse rated 103 by a length and half, deemed 109, MM nk second to a horse rated 106, deemed 103. I'd say both should be 105? Listen, I'm no handicapper, a mere amateur enthusiast offering my opinion, but when i feel 2 horses who have similar form, and one is 11/10 the other 8/1, it's not really a contest where my money is going.
345 CORK
I won't bore you here. Maarek wins, if you are after any value why not try Red Dubawi for the forecast, only 3lengths behind Maarek last time out and that's probably as good as any other form on offer.
420 CORK
A fillies Group 3. Hosting a Group 2 winner in Dermot Weld's Princess Highway. Being by Street Cry I've followed this one from the start, and I like her a lot. On best form she should show her class here. There's a couple unexposed at decent prices in this. Majenta looks progressive and I think could really make a leap here. She came rattling home over an unsuitable mile on debut and instantly delivered when stepped up in trip. Say was Pricewise for the Oaks, but ultimately ran a stinker. I think the value in the race is Midnight Soprano. She's gone well fresh in the past, arguably not at this level, but she has a consistent profile and is versatile on ground.
Have fun wherever you put your money. Remember these races will not be included in stats, win or lose.
NO ADVISED BETS TODAY
but....
As I said yesterday I shall try and make brief mention of the better races each day.
400 SALISBURY
The Cathedral Stakes, a Listed contest. Richard Hannon's professor is flattered by his official numbers, in my opinion, and could well be worth taking on. The one i think most likely to put up a challenge is MORACHE MUSIC. Lets just look at the Official numbers quickly. Prof, beat horse rated 103 by a length and half, deemed 109, MM nk second to a horse rated 106, deemed 103. I'd say both should be 105? Listen, I'm no handicapper, a mere amateur enthusiast offering my opinion, but when i feel 2 horses who have similar form, and one is 11/10 the other 8/1, it's not really a contest where my money is going.
345 CORK
I won't bore you here. Maarek wins, if you are after any value why not try Red Dubawi for the forecast, only 3lengths behind Maarek last time out and that's probably as good as any other form on offer.
420 CORK
A fillies Group 3. Hosting a Group 2 winner in Dermot Weld's Princess Highway. Being by Street Cry I've followed this one from the start, and I like her a lot. On best form she should show her class here. There's a couple unexposed at decent prices in this. Majenta looks progressive and I think could really make a leap here. She came rattling home over an unsuitable mile on debut and instantly delivered when stepped up in trip. Say was Pricewise for the Oaks, but ultimately ran a stinker. I think the value in the race is Midnight Soprano. She's gone well fresh in the past, arguably not at this level, but she has a consistent profile and is versatile on ground.
Have fun wherever you put your money. Remember these races will not be included in stats, win or lose.
Friday 14 June 2013
Saturday 15-6-13
Morning all, a blank yesterday. Hopefully better today with 4 bets!!! Some excellent big field handicaps to have a play at today, I shall be having a crack but these are my main bets. What I shall try and do in the near future is cover the top races of the day, no time today though which is a shame given the fayre on offer. Anyway here are my 4 for today.
TANGO SKY 155 MUSSELBURGH
Quite simply the drop back to 5f will be ideal. Quality jockey booking. Very capable of bouncing into the frame at a nice price.
SOUND OF GUNS 255 SANDOWN
A pretty solid performer, made reappearance in a rough Nell Gwyn, but was below par last time. Hopefully creases ironed out now and ready to go. Provided her mark isn't flattering she has a lot in hand here.
MAUNDY MONEY 745 LIMERICK
A consistent sort, currently 2nd reserve so needs 2 to come out but will be well worth factoring in off a low weight.
PEARL OF AFRICA 815 LIMERICK
She came on nicely over the winter on the AW, and by Jeremy the softer turf should do no harm. An interesting hcap to piece together with the additional penalties to factor in. But I think a little progression here and this one certainly has a big chance.
Good Luck
TANGO SKY 155 MUSSELBURGH
Quite simply the drop back to 5f will be ideal. Quality jockey booking. Very capable of bouncing into the frame at a nice price.
SOUND OF GUNS 255 SANDOWN
A pretty solid performer, made reappearance in a rough Nell Gwyn, but was below par last time. Hopefully creases ironed out now and ready to go. Provided her mark isn't flattering she has a lot in hand here.
MAUNDY MONEY 745 LIMERICK
A consistent sort, currently 2nd reserve so needs 2 to come out but will be well worth factoring in off a low weight.
PEARL OF AFRICA 815 LIMERICK
She came on nicely over the winter on the AW, and by Jeremy the softer turf should do no harm. An interesting hcap to piece together with the additional penalties to factor in. But I think a little progression here and this one certainly has a big chance.
Good Luck
Thursday 13 June 2013
Friday 14-6-13
Morning all, a winner most welcome yesterday after a little spell of placed horses. I have 2 today.
DARK EMERALD 725 GOODWOOD
This one has performed consistenly well in lower grade races and has perhaps found the fields a bit classy when attempting to move up. That being said i think Hills have got him wrong with their 12/1 quote this morning, as low as 8 elsewhere, and I think he represents a bit of value. Fallon is booked to ride, and if he turns up it's worth noting that he doesn't travel to evening meetings for the burger vans, if he bothers he usually leaves with a winner. This one is capable, and overpriced.
SEJAALAAT 905 GOODWOOD
His only win comes from his only visit here, over todays trip. Needed a couple of runs this year but looked like he was getting the hang of things last time with a decent second in a race where the winner has won again, and others in behind have run well also. This isn't a strong race, a competitive one yes, but not strong. You'd, well I'd, like to think this horse is probably the best in it, the main issue is his mentality, he is a bit of a shit but if he can settle enough to eak out a further couple of pounds then he should have this.
Good Luck
DARK EMERALD 725 GOODWOOD
This one has performed consistenly well in lower grade races and has perhaps found the fields a bit classy when attempting to move up. That being said i think Hills have got him wrong with their 12/1 quote this morning, as low as 8 elsewhere, and I think he represents a bit of value. Fallon is booked to ride, and if he turns up it's worth noting that he doesn't travel to evening meetings for the burger vans, if he bothers he usually leaves with a winner. This one is capable, and overpriced.
SEJAALAAT 905 GOODWOOD
His only win comes from his only visit here, over todays trip. Needed a couple of runs this year but looked like he was getting the hang of things last time with a decent second in a race where the winner has won again, and others in behind have run well also. This isn't a strong race, a competitive one yes, but not strong. You'd, well I'd, like to think this horse is probably the best in it, the main issue is his mentality, he is a bit of a shit but if he can settle enough to eak out a further couple of pounds then he should have this.
Good Luck
Wednesday 12 June 2013
Thursday 13-6-13
Morning all, narrowly unplaced yesterday, only the 3rd unplaced horse this month so far. Hopefully it's not a downturn. Just 1 again today.
TENHOO 620 HAYDOCK
3 of his 4 career wins have come over todays trip, also 3 of his 4 wins and numerous placings have come in Apprentice or Amateur races. He's quite regular in typical conditions which suggests he's pretty straightforward. He's given able assistance by Jason Hart, one of the better in this sphere. He also has a C&D win on his CV off the same mark as he is on today. If things go right he's a major player here.
Good Luck
TENHOO 620 HAYDOCK
3 of his 4 career wins have come over todays trip, also 3 of his 4 wins and numerous placings have come in Apprentice or Amateur races. He's quite regular in typical conditions which suggests he's pretty straightforward. He's given able assistance by Jason Hart, one of the better in this sphere. He also has a C&D win on his CV off the same mark as he is on today. If things go right he's a major player here.
Good Luck
wednesday 12-6-13
Morning all, the selection yesterday could only manage to finish 3rd. I just have one today.
NO DOMINION 400 BEVERLEY
A progressive and consistent Dylan Thomas gelding, he has finished in the frame on his last 7 starts winning 3 of them. He hasn't been put up again for his 3rd last time out, a race in which the winner got first run and eased down to finish, the second and third(today's selection) came in together and the 4th was some 6 lengths back. He holds a couple of today's rivals on strict lines and the short favourite has never won at this trip, from 8 attempts. Certainly looks a bit of value here and hopefully he can continue his upward curve.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
NO DOMINION 400 BEVERLEY
A progressive and consistent Dylan Thomas gelding, he has finished in the frame on his last 7 starts winning 3 of them. He hasn't been put up again for his 3rd last time out, a race in which the winner got first run and eased down to finish, the second and third(today's selection) came in together and the 4th was some 6 lengths back. He holds a couple of today's rivals on strict lines and the short favourite has never won at this trip, from 8 attempts. Certainly looks a bit of value here and hopefully he can continue his upward curve.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Monday 10 June 2013
Tuesday 11-6-13
Morning all. A little frustrating yesterday with 1 winner and 2 placed from the 3 I put up. Still nicely in profit for the month. Hopefully the one I put up today can win.
DEFINITELY GLAD 810 WORCESTER
Good Luck and Happy Punting
DEFINITELY GLAD 810 WORCESTER
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 9 June 2013
Monday 10-6-13
Morning all, just a quickie this morning as I'm on the drag. Any questions just tweet.
BEACON LADY 345 BRIGHTON
BADGER DALY 720 ROSCOMMON
GRAND DENIAL 830 WINDSOR
Good Luck
BEACON LADY 345 BRIGHTON
BADGER DALY 720 ROSCOMMON
GRAND DENIAL 830 WINDSOR
Good Luck
Saturday 8 June 2013
Sunday 9-6-13
Morning all, another day, another winner. This is all getting a bit surreal now. I have 2 for today.
CHLOES DREAM 315 NOTTINGHAM
This one has been banging on the door, despite only ever winning a seller, it looks merely a matter of time before she does score. This isn't a strong event, her mark looks pretty fair and she certainly has the most consistent form on offer.
WEXFORD OPERA 250 CURRAGH
This son of New Approach must be wondering how he is still a maiden, as must his connections. He's line up in a Group 1, a Listed race, just when he sits in this class he keeps bumping into 1 too good! The other exposed one near the top, the filly Royal Empress achieved her higher mark with an excellent effort in a 2yo Grp 3 but for me hasn't lived up to it. Last time getting beat near 10 lengths off 95 in a hcap with a claimer taking off 7lb, I'd say these 2 are pretty even and I'm trusting Jim Bolger to have found the race, Oxx and Weld have newcomers so wiser not to lump on as has proven before he's always vulnerable to a good one.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
CHLOES DREAM 315 NOTTINGHAM
This one has been banging on the door, despite only ever winning a seller, it looks merely a matter of time before she does score. This isn't a strong event, her mark looks pretty fair and she certainly has the most consistent form on offer.
WEXFORD OPERA 250 CURRAGH
This son of New Approach must be wondering how he is still a maiden, as must his connections. He's line up in a Group 1, a Listed race, just when he sits in this class he keeps bumping into 1 too good! The other exposed one near the top, the filly Royal Empress achieved her higher mark with an excellent effort in a 2yo Grp 3 but for me hasn't lived up to it. Last time getting beat near 10 lengths off 95 in a hcap with a claimer taking off 7lb, I'd say these 2 are pretty even and I'm trusting Jim Bolger to have found the race, Oxx and Weld have newcomers so wiser not to lump on as has proven before he's always vulnerable to a good one.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Friday 7 June 2013
Saturday 8-6-13
Morning all, 2 out of 3 yesterday, and shock, the shortest of the lot let me down! Well we mustn't rest on it, time to move on. Although I only have found 1 bet today.
NOCTURN 255 NEWMARKET
This horse was narrowly denied last time on softer ground by a horse that loves cut, I feel he should continue his upward rise now it's a bit more solid underfoot. In a race where 2 progressive types seem to have the market to themself. This is a step up in class for market leader Enrol and she has been hit by quite a rise for a neck win, saying that Nocturn is on a pretty sharp mark for his 2 quick wins and then narrow second in this grade, which we decided was unsuitable ground. So which one has the handicapper got a handle on. The market isn't convinced he has on either given the 12/1 field bar these 2. So you are 5/2, 7/2 your choice. The value is Nocturn at 7/2. I can't help but think the point difference is the Ryan Moore factor.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
NOCTURN 255 NEWMARKET
This horse was narrowly denied last time on softer ground by a horse that loves cut, I feel he should continue his upward rise now it's a bit more solid underfoot. In a race where 2 progressive types seem to have the market to themself. This is a step up in class for market leader Enrol and she has been hit by quite a rise for a neck win, saying that Nocturn is on a pretty sharp mark for his 2 quick wins and then narrow second in this grade, which we decided was unsuitable ground. So which one has the handicapper got a handle on. The market isn't convinced he has on either given the 12/1 field bar these 2. So you are 5/2, 7/2 your choice. The value is Nocturn at 7/2. I can't help but think the point difference is the Ryan Moore factor.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
My wife, my hero.
Hi, I know this is my racing blog, but I couldn't be bothered to go on the laptop and setup a new page. I wrote a piece about my job a short time ago and received some decent feedback, from that I have gained an enthusiasm to open up a bit. So you'll find a few random musings posted here now and then. I'd like to share this story with you all.
So Sunday 2nd June. It started as a normal day. A little sore from a combination of 2 good friends getting married the day previous, and Dawn Approach deciding he didn't fancy it. So I get up, do my blog as always, place my bets, feed the kids. I had the 2 babies with me as Shelley took our eldest to the cinema in the morning. They played in the garden, had fun, fought, a normal morning. Shelley and Piper came home bearing lunch in a bag with a golden M, we ate said fast food and I headed off to work. So, at work discussing with my punters how Dawn Approach failed so miserably I received a text. "How was the boy this morning, he isn't very well" followed by an avocado message with a picture of my boy snuggled into a blanket. I showed the picture to my Deputy Manager saying "ah bless my little man, probably manflu again"
I get home around 8. My boy is still in mummy's arms, wrapped up. He wasn't right. Very hot, complaining of pain and struggling to settle. He won't take medicine so just TLC can be administered. We got in a takeaway and sat watching the weekend's episodes of The Voice, while the boy drifted in and out of sleep between us. Moving on we went up to bed, the smallest stirred and got unsettled around midnight, so I dealt with her, while the boy just got hotter and hotter and complaining of pain more frequently. Shelley knew something was wrong and just kept him close to her. Suddenly a rash appeared, almost instantaneously, it wasn't there and then it was. Bit of background, my wife is a highly qualified child worker, and currently teaches antenatal and baby classes. She reached for a glass immediately. The rash still hugely prominent under depression of the glass. The colour drained from her as she asked me to get her phone. I ran downstairs and back up and she immediately dialed NHS and rattled off his symptoms. A Paramedic was sent out. The paramedic was on site within 5-10 minutes (apologies timings maybe a little off as was quite a surreal few moments), he came in, took one look and called for an Ambulance. Then he carried out his procedures. No more than 20 minutes after my wife checking the rash were she and my son whisked away under blue lights at about 2am-ish, maybe a little earlier. I cannot possibly describe how I felt, needless to say I didn't get a lot of(any) sleep. Fast forward....the blood results confirmed what all the doctors were pretty sure of, Meningococcal Septicaemia. Not nice. You'll be pleased to know that despite a couple of shaky days and a few regressions, my son has been released home and is recovering nicely. A doctor spoke to us yesterday with these words. "I've never seen a child come in as bad as Charlie and not go into intensive care, and I've never seen one recover from this so quickly" She closed, turning to my wife and saying "and you, you saved his life". I knew this already, but for her to hear it from a medical professional must have really hit home. My boy still has recovering to do, it will take time, but it doesn't bear thinking about how he might be with any delay that Sunday night/Monday morning. So you see my wife, who I already knew to be an exceptional mother, confirmed her place as my hero. She, along with an exceptional paramedic whose name sadly escapes me and the incredible doctors and nurses at Ipswich hospital, saved my son's life. They are the reason I will be able to take him to White Hart Lane, Newmarket races, to his kids footy matches and so forth. No words can explain the relief I feel.
I'd like to close with a small statement. Meningococcal bacteria is very common, a large number of people carry it, lying dormant doing nothing. Then one day it can strike, bringing with it some nasty diseases. Most common symptoms are, soaring temperature/fever, aversion to light, pain in the base of the neck/top of spinal chord, and the rash. The rash is caused by blood leaking from the muscles and vessels and therefore does not clear under depression. If your child suffers these or similar symptoms then please don't delay. You could be a hero too.
Thank you for reading, I just wanted to share that.
Thursday 6 June 2013
Friday 7-6-13
Morning all. A blank from the 2 yesterday. 2nd and 4th. I have 3 today, although one will probably go off very short so I'd advise getting on as early as possible.
310 NEWMARKET - GREAT HALL
Ran a respectable pipe opener in what could turn out to be a pretty warm maiden, should appreciate the step up in trip. Richard Hughes is an eyecatching jockey booking. On current exchange and tissue forecast this could be the value in the race.
750 LEOPARDSTOWN - DIBAYANI
This horse was in my Antepost books and hasn't really come on where i would have liked. Has a little to find on a strict formline through Leading Light but that horse was very straightforward versus Dibayani and hung out front versus the other 2 contenders in this. I think Dib is a bit of value here.
850 HAYDOCK - PRESSURE POINT
This well bred colt will go off pretty short tonight, perhaps just use to boost other 2 if you wish. He was only beaten by a pretty sharp filly on debut and given that most from Sir Micheal Stoute come on for the run short be too good for what is opposing today. A nice opening to quickly get a win in and go on to bigger things.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
310 NEWMARKET - GREAT HALL
Ran a respectable pipe opener in what could turn out to be a pretty warm maiden, should appreciate the step up in trip. Richard Hughes is an eyecatching jockey booking. On current exchange and tissue forecast this could be the value in the race.
750 LEOPARDSTOWN - DIBAYANI
This horse was in my Antepost books and hasn't really come on where i would have liked. Has a little to find on a strict formline through Leading Light but that horse was very straightforward versus Dibayani and hung out front versus the other 2 contenders in this. I think Dib is a bit of value here.
850 HAYDOCK - PRESSURE POINT
This well bred colt will go off pretty short tonight, perhaps just use to boost other 2 if you wish. He was only beaten by a pretty sharp filly on debut and given that most from Sir Micheal Stoute come on for the run short be too good for what is opposing today. A nice opening to quickly get a win in and go on to bigger things.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday 5 June 2013
Thursday 6-6-13
Morning all, another winner. Making a 60% Strikerate this month. I'm more than happy with that. Basically I've combined 3-4 systems to my background work and formline study and just put up the ones that tick all my boxes. Today I have 2. Both within 20 minutes of each other!
TIGERS TALE 725 SANDOWN
This one has run creditably in snatches since a hatrick early last season elevated his mark. He put in a solid effort up in class last time out and hasn't been touched by the handicapper, although he did have a very useful 5lb claimer on board. Today he is partnered by Frankie who is still looking for his first winner since his misdemeanour induced holiday. The mile appears to be his trip, I think at BetVictor's 15/2 there's certainly a case to go each way for the more cautious among you.
WELSH NAYBER 745 TIPPERARY
Reasonable flat horse, has just kept bumping into a good'un since sent hurdling. Was a length short of breaking maiden last time out. Jockey today takes off 5lb which could prove useful. Certainly the pick of the form here and looks to have a decent opportunity to get off the mark.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
TIGERS TALE 725 SANDOWN
This one has run creditably in snatches since a hatrick early last season elevated his mark. He put in a solid effort up in class last time out and hasn't been touched by the handicapper, although he did have a very useful 5lb claimer on board. Today he is partnered by Frankie who is still looking for his first winner since his misdemeanour induced holiday. The mile appears to be his trip, I think at BetVictor's 15/2 there's certainly a case to go each way for the more cautious among you.
WELSH NAYBER 745 TIPPERARY
Reasonable flat horse, has just kept bumping into a good'un since sent hurdling. Was a length short of breaking maiden last time out. Jockey today takes off 5lb which could prove useful. Certainly the pick of the form here and looks to have a decent opportunity to get off the mark.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday 4 June 2013
Wednesday 5-6-13
Morning all, another winner yesterday. So far so good for June. I just have 1 again today.
745 RIPON - ANTONIO GRAMSCI
Won pretty cosily on handicap debut, then next start was only beaten by one that went and won again. Form has been franked in behind also and this one due to go up a couple of lbs in the future. Trainer David Barron is in some form at the moment, 7-25 28% with an LSP of +£21.96 over the last fortnight. He's been subject to market moves all night but Sky and Paddy are holding 13/8 at time of press.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
745 RIPON - ANTONIO GRAMSCI
Won pretty cosily on handicap debut, then next start was only beaten by one that went and won again. Form has been franked in behind also and this one due to go up a couple of lbs in the future. Trainer David Barron is in some form at the moment, 7-25 28% with an LSP of +£21.96 over the last fortnight. He's been subject to market moves all night but Sky and Paddy are holding 13/8 at time of press.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Monday 3 June 2013
Tuesday 4-6-13
Morning, a nice winner yesterday. I thought Boomerang Bob would get involved but I guess I was hoping more for the place, but chuffed with the win. I just have 1 today.
400 RIPON - BONDESIRE
Made a solid reappearance in this class when in a bunch of 3 well clear of the field, handicapper took dimlight and put her up 3lb, she was keen next time up in class and struggles to settle and now has had a lb taken back off that makes her eligible to slot back into this class off top weight. The David O'Meara yard is having a good time of things at the moment, certainly aided by Danny Tudhope riding out of his skin. Let's hope we can find another winner here.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
400 RIPON - BONDESIRE
Made a solid reappearance in this class when in a bunch of 3 well clear of the field, handicapper took dimlight and put her up 3lb, she was keen next time up in class and struggles to settle and now has had a lb taken back off that makes her eligible to slot back into this class off top weight. The David O'Meara yard is having a good time of things at the moment, certainly aided by Danny Tudhope riding out of his skin. Let's hope we can find another winner here.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 2 June 2013
Monday 3-6-13
Morning all, there were no bets yesterday, good job really as even on my shortlist there was only 1 9/4 winner! I have 2 today, both look solid each way chances. I'm just going to jot them down, I'll clarify reasons if the day goes better than the night. Been a rocky one, hence why I'm posting at 350am!
COLLINGWOOD 335 NAAS
BOOMERANG BOB 700 WINDSOR
Have a good day all.
COLLINGWOOD 335 NAAS
BOOMERANG BOB 700 WINDSOR
Have a good day all.
Saturday 1 June 2013
Saturday 1-6-13 = Derby Day
Morning all, Thistle Bird done the job nicely yesterday, just a shame the two in Ireland didn't. Edeymi was seemingly going well before an obstacle was his undoing once again, and Ealain ran so poor I'd be pretty sure something was wrong. Hopefully some decided my analysis was enough to risk an each way play on 20/1 Oaks winner Talent as well.
Anyway onto today. I only have 1 bet.
150 MUSSELBURGH - GREY STREET
Richard Fahey's Royal Applause filly quickly shifted her maiden tag as a 2yo and ran creditably in a decent nursery. She then made a solid reappearance last month putting in an eyecatching late run despite the race already gone. She's not moved in mark, winner that day ran well off 5lb higher next time out, and I think she's a big chance. My idea of a place banker for those that do it that way and every chance of the win. Stan James and Paddy are still holding at 8/1 as I type, but she can found short as 5/1 elsewhere.
Good Luck
THE INVESTEC DERBY - 400 EPSOM
I'm not going to ramble on, or try to cotton wrap this. Dawn Approach is better than any horse in this race. He will win. Lots of spatterings to whether he can run a mile and a half, of course he can, he's a horse. I read a much better equine judge than me wrote " Any horse can run any trip, it's how they use there energy in the race". If you'll all remember back, the reason Frankel never ran the Derby, wasn't because Sir Henry didn't think he'd get the trip, it was because Sir Henry didn't think he'd settle well enough. Now watch the 2000 Guineas back. Dawn Approach looked calm and measured throughout, kicking clear with a wonderful turn of pace. The Coolmore squad will have to put in a monumental effort to get this horse beat, in my mind they'll have to set up like a procycling sprint train. But, it's always wise to have a saver right? My saver was pretty easy to pick, I like the Chester Vase as a trial and Ryan Moore is, in my opinion, the best jockey around. So Ruler of the World, a generous 8/1 chance, will certainly suffice. A final danger, and one i have an Antepost docket for is Mars. Ran with great credit in the 1000 Guineas, Richard Hughes said after the Oaks that classic wins were seemingly like buses, well the true analogy is that you don't see one for ages then 3 come at once, he's won the last 2!!!
Lets make that a 1-2-3 shall we, for a laugh
DAWN APPROACH - RULER OF THE WORLD - MARS
Good Luck and Enjoy the race
Anyway onto today. I only have 1 bet.
150 MUSSELBURGH - GREY STREET
Richard Fahey's Royal Applause filly quickly shifted her maiden tag as a 2yo and ran creditably in a decent nursery. She then made a solid reappearance last month putting in an eyecatching late run despite the race already gone. She's not moved in mark, winner that day ran well off 5lb higher next time out, and I think she's a big chance. My idea of a place banker for those that do it that way and every chance of the win. Stan James and Paddy are still holding at 8/1 as I type, but she can found short as 5/1 elsewhere.
Good Luck
THE INVESTEC DERBY - 400 EPSOM
I'm not going to ramble on, or try to cotton wrap this. Dawn Approach is better than any horse in this race. He will win. Lots of spatterings to whether he can run a mile and a half, of course he can, he's a horse. I read a much better equine judge than me wrote " Any horse can run any trip, it's how they use there energy in the race". If you'll all remember back, the reason Frankel never ran the Derby, wasn't because Sir Henry didn't think he'd get the trip, it was because Sir Henry didn't think he'd settle well enough. Now watch the 2000 Guineas back. Dawn Approach looked calm and measured throughout, kicking clear with a wonderful turn of pace. The Coolmore squad will have to put in a monumental effort to get this horse beat, in my mind they'll have to set up like a procycling sprint train. But, it's always wise to have a saver right? My saver was pretty easy to pick, I like the Chester Vase as a trial and Ryan Moore is, in my opinion, the best jockey around. So Ruler of the World, a generous 8/1 chance, will certainly suffice. A final danger, and one i have an Antepost docket for is Mars. Ran with great credit in the 1000 Guineas, Richard Hughes said after the Oaks that classic wins were seemingly like buses, well the true analogy is that you don't see one for ages then 3 come at once, he's won the last 2!!!
Lets make that a 1-2-3 shall we, for a laugh
DAWN APPROACH - RULER OF THE WORLD - MARS
Good Luck and Enjoy the race
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