Today's bets
BONJOUR STEVE - 300 CHEPSTOW
CONSISTANT - 535 LEICESTER
OCEAN LEGEND - 610 EPSOM
ROUGE NUAGE - 820 EPSOM
Thursday 16 July 2015
Wednesday 24 June 2015
Wednesday 24 June
A midweek special, and I'm actually on a bit of a poor run as anyone who follows me on betref or racecaller will attest. We'll see how today goes, I've 3 at Each Way prices so hopefully there will be some return.
NOCTURN 240 SALISBURY
Has been struggling to get home, but tumbling down the weights and grades, if he maintains a bit of pace this drop to 5f could well see him back involved.
GINGER JACK 335 CARLISLE
Grabbed an overdue win last month and looked good doing it. Jockey is in a purple patch right now. Should be involved despite 5lb rise.
OPTIMYSTIC 710 BATH
Balding yard in good form at present, 6 looks to be her trip and hopefully turf debut shocker was a blip.
Good Luck
NOCTURN 240 SALISBURY
Has been struggling to get home, but tumbling down the weights and grades, if he maintains a bit of pace this drop to 5f could well see him back involved.
GINGER JACK 335 CARLISLE
Grabbed an overdue win last month and looked good doing it. Jockey is in a purple patch right now. Should be involved despite 5lb rise.
OPTIMYSTIC 710 BATH
Balding yard in good form at present, 6 looks to be her trip and hopefully turf debut shocker was a blip.
Good Luck
Thursday 18 June 2015
Thursday 18 June - Royal Ascot Day 3
A shocker yesterday, it started okay with Bossy Guest and Besharah running well, but the Euro Charline refused to go in and Cannock Chase was as good as held hostage by Japanese raider Spielberg. Spark Plug clipped heels as the race kicked in, and Always Smile decided to go via Reading down the home straight. So certainly not a lucky day.
Time is a luxury today so it'll be a short spotlight simply on the horses I've backed.
205 LOG OUT ISLAND
Thrown straight into a prize event on debut and done it nicely, beating Coventry winner Buratino nearly 6 lengths in the process.
305 MAFTOOL
Disappointed in the French Guineas, but is a Group 3 winner and will fully appreciate quick ground.
340 PLEASCACH
The Irish Guineas winner is 8lb clear of her closest rival on Official numbers.
420 TAC DE BOISTRON
The best horse in the race on achievement to date, Forgotten Rules is obviously open to progress, if the ground were soft TDB would be nowhere near double figure odds, he does have form on quicker than dead ground and represents a massive each way chance.
500 ROTHERWICK
No discredit in 12 length battering when giving 4lb to Jack Hobbs last time, who is now rated nearly 2 stone heavier, he beat 2 subsequent winners that day and looks a bit price here dropped back down to a distance where he has won on 2 out of 3 starts.
535 DISSOLUTION
The New Approach colt won comfortably at Newmarket in April and only bumped into a potentially good one next time up at Newbury, should find the step up in trip no problem and could be a group horse in the near future.
Good Luck
Time is a luxury today so it'll be a short spotlight simply on the horses I've backed.
205 LOG OUT ISLAND
Thrown straight into a prize event on debut and done it nicely, beating Coventry winner Buratino nearly 6 lengths in the process.
305 MAFTOOL
Disappointed in the French Guineas, but is a Group 3 winner and will fully appreciate quick ground.
340 PLEASCACH
The Irish Guineas winner is 8lb clear of her closest rival on Official numbers.
420 TAC DE BOISTRON
The best horse in the race on achievement to date, Forgotten Rules is obviously open to progress, if the ground were soft TDB would be nowhere near double figure odds, he does have form on quicker than dead ground and represents a massive each way chance.
500 ROTHERWICK
No discredit in 12 length battering when giving 4lb to Jack Hobbs last time, who is now rated nearly 2 stone heavier, he beat 2 subsequent winners that day and looks a bit price here dropped back down to a distance where he has won on 2 out of 3 starts.
535 DISSOLUTION
The New Approach colt won comfortably at Newmarket in April and only bumped into a potentially good one next time up at Newbury, should find the step up in trip no problem and could be a group horse in the near future.
Good Luck
Tuesday 16 June 2015
Wednesday 17 June - Royal Ascot Day 2
Morning, so I found the 1st and 3rd in the Coventry and the obvious winner in the St James' Palace, it was pretty much a breakeven day for me. I've marked my card for today and I'll just have to jot it down quickly as the kids want their breakfast.
230 I really like Bossy Guest here. He was my NAP when he won a valuable race at Newmarket in April and then ran very creditably up in trip in the 1000 Guineas. He was beaten by Ivawood that day, and the favourite has done nothing wrong, but I'm not convinced there's 7-8 points between the 2 as the betting suggests. There's 9/1 available with the 3 online leaders, it's a cracking each way bet at the least.
305 For me here, the standout bit of form is Besharah's Course and Distance maiden win, 4 from behind her came out and won next time, as did she readily. Given Mark Johnston's 2yo form it would be folly to discount his pair, Rah Rah and Delizia even though their races haven't pulled up any trees. Also the Wesley Ward pair have to be considered, we saw the blistering pace these American animals are capable of with Ruby Notion yesterday, although that one did fade eventually. Shaden, for Lady Jane Cecil and Hayley Turner got a timely form boost from a winner yesterday. 2 others for a speculative each way play I could recommend are Kurland, I'm not sure she beat a lot on debut but boy did she do it well, visually very impressive and I'm informed that breeding suggests she should be a good 2yo. Only thing she wasn't asked a question at all that day so no telling how much fight she has. The other at a very big price is Jamie Osborne's Secret Tale. She's improved with each run, will love the quick ground, her sire Zoffany ran well here and sired yesterday winner Washington DC. Her second start she was within a length to Nelspruit who ran behind impressive Coventry winner Buratino at Epsom.
340 Integral is a worthy a worthy favourite on what she's achieved, but she has to give away weight as a group 1 winner. I'm backing Euro Charline instead, a 3rd and a 1st at the course last year, she then went on to win the Beverley D stakes and run a creditable 5th behind Solow in Meydan. I think she's the value in the race. If you'd like 2 against the favourite then Rizeena would definitely be my next offering. 3/3 at Ascot, in fact she's won every race in England that hasn't been at Newmarket. So strike a line through anything abroad and at Newmarket and her form is World Class.
420 My money is on Cannock Chase here. He's the only Course and Distance winner in the field abd the fact Ryan Moore has seemingly chosen to ride him simply pushes him to the forefront of the mind. He needs to step up to win this, but he has been improving so no suggestion it's truly beyond him. The Grey Gatsby is the forever underated horse and is potentially a big price again today. Free Eagle needs to be respected as Dermot Weld doesn't send his animals to these shores for shits and giggles
500 A very open handicap as you would expect. I'm going with Spark Plug, who beat GM Hopkins last time out at Newbury, he has the profile of an improving horse and finished 3 lengths behind Cannock Chase in the Hampton Court here last year. I also have Gabrial scribbled in as an each way bet,a genuine horse, he won the Lincoln and was only 3 lengths behind Spark Plug in the Spring Cup, he's been kept busy and grabbed second in a listed event at York last time out.
535 A 17 runner listed handicap for 3yo fillies, at least we can finish the card with an easy one! Osaila is the class animal in the race, at the track she came 5th in the Albany last year then won the Princess Margaret a month later. She came on at 3 to win the Nell Gwyn but was outclassed in the 1000 Guineas. If she can handle the weight she has to concede then she's a cracking each way bet certainly at the 14s William Hill are chalking up. That said I think the Godolphin inmate Always Smile should have the ability to win this. She won last time despite wandering around and the 2 behind her have come out and won since.
230 I really like Bossy Guest here. He was my NAP when he won a valuable race at Newmarket in April and then ran very creditably up in trip in the 1000 Guineas. He was beaten by Ivawood that day, and the favourite has done nothing wrong, but I'm not convinced there's 7-8 points between the 2 as the betting suggests. There's 9/1 available with the 3 online leaders, it's a cracking each way bet at the least.
305 For me here, the standout bit of form is Besharah's Course and Distance maiden win, 4 from behind her came out and won next time, as did she readily. Given Mark Johnston's 2yo form it would be folly to discount his pair, Rah Rah and Delizia even though their races haven't pulled up any trees. Also the Wesley Ward pair have to be considered, we saw the blistering pace these American animals are capable of with Ruby Notion yesterday, although that one did fade eventually. Shaden, for Lady Jane Cecil and Hayley Turner got a timely form boost from a winner yesterday. 2 others for a speculative each way play I could recommend are Kurland, I'm not sure she beat a lot on debut but boy did she do it well, visually very impressive and I'm informed that breeding suggests she should be a good 2yo. Only thing she wasn't asked a question at all that day so no telling how much fight she has. The other at a very big price is Jamie Osborne's Secret Tale. She's improved with each run, will love the quick ground, her sire Zoffany ran well here and sired yesterday winner Washington DC. Her second start she was within a length to Nelspruit who ran behind impressive Coventry winner Buratino at Epsom.
340 Integral is a worthy a worthy favourite on what she's achieved, but she has to give away weight as a group 1 winner. I'm backing Euro Charline instead, a 3rd and a 1st at the course last year, she then went on to win the Beverley D stakes and run a creditable 5th behind Solow in Meydan. I think she's the value in the race. If you'd like 2 against the favourite then Rizeena would definitely be my next offering. 3/3 at Ascot, in fact she's won every race in England that hasn't been at Newmarket. So strike a line through anything abroad and at Newmarket and her form is World Class.
420 My money is on Cannock Chase here. He's the only Course and Distance winner in the field abd the fact Ryan Moore has seemingly chosen to ride him simply pushes him to the forefront of the mind. He needs to step up to win this, but he has been improving so no suggestion it's truly beyond him. The Grey Gatsby is the forever underated horse and is potentially a big price again today. Free Eagle needs to be respected as Dermot Weld doesn't send his animals to these shores for shits and giggles
500 A very open handicap as you would expect. I'm going with Spark Plug, who beat GM Hopkins last time out at Newbury, he has the profile of an improving horse and finished 3 lengths behind Cannock Chase in the Hampton Court here last year. I also have Gabrial scribbled in as an each way bet,a genuine horse, he won the Lincoln and was only 3 lengths behind Spark Plug in the Spring Cup, he's been kept busy and grabbed second in a listed event at York last time out.
535 A 17 runner listed handicap for 3yo fillies, at least we can finish the card with an easy one! Osaila is the class animal in the race, at the track she came 5th in the Albany last year then won the Princess Margaret a month later. She came on at 3 to win the Nell Gwyn but was outclassed in the 1000 Guineas. If she can handle the weight she has to concede then she's a cracking each way bet certainly at the 14s William Hill are chalking up. That said I think the Godolphin inmate Always Smile should have the ability to win this. She won last time despite wandering around and the 2 behind her have come out and won since.
Monday 15 June 2015
Tuesday 16 June - Royal Ascot Day 1
Morning, here's what I think.
230 I'm taking on the pair of hipster bets with Night Of Thunder, he struggled to make good on his promise as a 3yo after winning the Guineas but was very convincing when landing the Lockinge upon return at 4. Solow looked very good in Dubai and will be a big player, but I'm not going to pretend I know enough about Able Friend to pass judgement.
305 A very open looking Coventry, the favourite Round Two has followed a path that his trainer likes to use with winners of this race but I was very taken with the way Buratino won last time out, so much so that I immediately looked for a price for this race. I like the form of Eltezam coming in to the race and wouldn't put anyone having an each way bet on him.
340 The booking of Ryan Moore really jumps off the page for the Australian raider Shamal Wind. He makes great interest given the Aussie record in this race. Group 1 winners Sole Power and G Force offer up the obvious resistance.
420 Gleneagles
500 The Warren Greatrex trained Boite has been in excellent form this year, proving very consistant in both codes and will represent my main fancy for this race. I also cast my eye over two potentially well treated animals at each way value. Broxbourne for Nicky Henderson hasn't been seen on the level for nearly 2 years but recorded a hurdle win and then a 2nd up into listed class in the same code just last month. He's just a lb higher than his last flat win. Big Thunder for Sir Mark Prescott, 3lb lower than his last win and despite failing to record at this grade, this is the lowest weight he has competed off therein. A course win adds to his appeal.
535 You have to respect Ruby Notion, set over by the master of this race Wesley Ward. Steady Pace will make appeal if Buratino does indeed win the Coventry earlier in the day but in a race like this I'm keen to back at bigger prices. I like Sahreej, he wasn't far away on debut and seemingly didn't appreciate the step up to 6 the next time. Won with plenty handy back to 5 and comes here with that race working out well so far. Just Glamorous followed him in that day so makes some appeal at a triple figure price. Opal Tiara also I feel has to be respected, a close second with the rest of the field left, in the Hilary Needler.
230 I'm taking on the pair of hipster bets with Night Of Thunder, he struggled to make good on his promise as a 3yo after winning the Guineas but was very convincing when landing the Lockinge upon return at 4. Solow looked very good in Dubai and will be a big player, but I'm not going to pretend I know enough about Able Friend to pass judgement.
305 A very open looking Coventry, the favourite Round Two has followed a path that his trainer likes to use with winners of this race but I was very taken with the way Buratino won last time out, so much so that I immediately looked for a price for this race. I like the form of Eltezam coming in to the race and wouldn't put anyone having an each way bet on him.
340 The booking of Ryan Moore really jumps off the page for the Australian raider Shamal Wind. He makes great interest given the Aussie record in this race. Group 1 winners Sole Power and G Force offer up the obvious resistance.
420 Gleneagles
500 The Warren Greatrex trained Boite has been in excellent form this year, proving very consistant in both codes and will represent my main fancy for this race. I also cast my eye over two potentially well treated animals at each way value. Broxbourne for Nicky Henderson hasn't been seen on the level for nearly 2 years but recorded a hurdle win and then a 2nd up into listed class in the same code just last month. He's just a lb higher than his last flat win. Big Thunder for Sir Mark Prescott, 3lb lower than his last win and despite failing to record at this grade, this is the lowest weight he has competed off therein. A course win adds to his appeal.
535 You have to respect Ruby Notion, set over by the master of this race Wesley Ward. Steady Pace will make appeal if Buratino does indeed win the Coventry earlier in the day but in a race like this I'm keen to back at bigger prices. I like Sahreej, he wasn't far away on debut and seemingly didn't appreciate the step up to 6 the next time. Won with plenty handy back to 5 and comes here with that race working out well so far. Just Glamorous followed him in that day so makes some appeal at a triple figure price. Opal Tiara also I feel has to be respected, a close second with the rest of the field left, in the Hilary Needler.
Wednesday 10 June 2015
Thursday 11 June
3 FOR TODAY
NEEDLESS SHOUTING 305 NOTTINGHAM
WHO DARES WINS 505 NEWBURY
GWILI SPAR 525 WORCESTER
Good Luck
NEEDLESS SHOUTING 305 NOTTINGHAM
WHO DARES WINS 505 NEWBURY
GWILI SPAR 525 WORCESTER
Good Luck
Tuesday 9 June 2015
Wednesday 10th June
Today's 3.
JANAAB 330 BEVERLEY
STANLOW 350 BRIGHTON
ROUGE NUAGE 840 KEMPTON
Good Luck
JANAAB 330 BEVERLEY
STANLOW 350 BRIGHTON
ROUGE NUAGE 840 KEMPTON
Good Luck
Monday 8 June 2015
Monday 8th June
Today's 3.
STAMP DUTY 445 THIRSK
HANDIWORK 710 PONTEFRACT
SPRING BIRD 910 PONTEFRACT
STAMP DUTY 445 THIRSK
HANDIWORK 710 PONTEFRACT
SPRING BIRD 910 PONTEFRACT
Friday 5 June 2015
Friday June 5
Morning, it's Oaks day. I'll pop down my 3 bets then a little ramble about the Oaks.
ABSEIL 345 EPSOM
Won this race last year and has had a mixed bag of form in better races since. Drawn high and Ryan Moore steers. Should have a big chance.
MESHARDAL 445 CATTERICK
In tremendous form, finishing in the first 2 on 10 of his last 11 starts. Has registered a win and a second in his 2 attempts over Course and Distance.
WATERVILLE ROCK 855 DOWNPATRICK
Registered 2 third place finishes to date, both times keeping on. Pushed for another furlong here and Katie Walsh always worth following in this sphere.
Good Luck
The Oaks.
Where to start, it looks an open renewal. Jack Naylor has seen the money this week after her eyecatching rattle late home in the Irish 1000 Guineas and I'll be frank is one I had pencilled down as a 2yo. Legatissimo, the English 1000 Guineas winner is bred to cope with the trip no problem but maybe at a disadvantage to those fillies who've already gone 10/11 furlongs?Also the draw in 1 won't help at all. I think the Gosden pair Jazzi Top and Star of Seville aren't without a chance with a preference to the former, winner of Newmarket's Pretty Polly stakes which has provided the Oaks winner a few times recently. The latter had to dig in to win the Musidora from a staying on Together Forever, she also was in receipt of 4lb from Aidan O'Brien's filly that day which she won't be today, combined with the extra 2 furlongs you'd assume TF has the better chance. Crystal Zvezda is progressive, I'm not sure where they've plucked her rating from though and she's not beaten a lot, I'd have to swerve at the price. Luca Cumani's Lady Of Dubai won Newbury's Height of Fashion stakes quite impressively on seasonal debut and would have every right to come on for that run, if she did you'd have to assume she'd be bang in the scrap for places and at double figure odds represents decent value. I'm going to nail my colours to the mast now. I think Jazzi Top will win, Together Forever second, Lady of Dubai third.
Jazzi Top
Together Forever
Lady of Dubai
ABSEIL 345 EPSOM
Won this race last year and has had a mixed bag of form in better races since. Drawn high and Ryan Moore steers. Should have a big chance.
MESHARDAL 445 CATTERICK
In tremendous form, finishing in the first 2 on 10 of his last 11 starts. Has registered a win and a second in his 2 attempts over Course and Distance.
WATERVILLE ROCK 855 DOWNPATRICK
Registered 2 third place finishes to date, both times keeping on. Pushed for another furlong here and Katie Walsh always worth following in this sphere.
Good Luck
The Oaks.
Where to start, it looks an open renewal. Jack Naylor has seen the money this week after her eyecatching rattle late home in the Irish 1000 Guineas and I'll be frank is one I had pencilled down as a 2yo. Legatissimo, the English 1000 Guineas winner is bred to cope with the trip no problem but maybe at a disadvantage to those fillies who've already gone 10/11 furlongs?Also the draw in 1 won't help at all. I think the Gosden pair Jazzi Top and Star of Seville aren't without a chance with a preference to the former, winner of Newmarket's Pretty Polly stakes which has provided the Oaks winner a few times recently. The latter had to dig in to win the Musidora from a staying on Together Forever, she also was in receipt of 4lb from Aidan O'Brien's filly that day which she won't be today, combined with the extra 2 furlongs you'd assume TF has the better chance. Crystal Zvezda is progressive, I'm not sure where they've plucked her rating from though and she's not beaten a lot, I'd have to swerve at the price. Luca Cumani's Lady Of Dubai won Newbury's Height of Fashion stakes quite impressively on seasonal debut and would have every right to come on for that run, if she did you'd have to assume she'd be bang in the scrap for places and at double figure odds represents decent value. I'm going to nail my colours to the mast now. I think Jazzi Top will win, Together Forever second, Lady of Dubai third.
Jazzi Top
Together Forever
Lady of Dubai
Saturday 23 May 2015
Sunday 24 May
Morning all. I've picked out some horses, I can't really get in the mood to do any form of wrte up though as it's 715am n a Sunday, and I might have engaged in the consumption of Alcoholic Beverage last evening. So here's my bets today for those that assume I've the faintest idea of what I'm doing.
STAR PRESENTED 250 FONTWELL
SUSIE SHEEP 300 UTTOXETER
THE GREY GATSBY 320 CURRAGH
FRUITY O ROONEY 400 FONTWELL
TAGLIETELLE 500 CURRAGH
EVERAARD 525 KELSO
STAR PRESENTED 250 FONTWELL
SUSIE SHEEP 300 UTTOXETER
THE GREY GATSBY 320 CURRAGH
FRUITY O ROONEY 400 FONTWELL
TAGLIETELLE 500 CURRAGH
EVERAARD 525 KELSO
Tuesday 19 May 2015
Wednesday 20 May
Morning, saved at the last yesterday as Dynamo Walt got home at 5/1. I have 3 today.
DHAULAR DHAR 520 AYR
Scored his 12th career win at Wolverhampton in January, didn't get extended trip last tie out. He has won over today's trip, albeit a while ago. He's a likeable horse and it's always dangerous to discount Jim Goldie north of the wall.
THE GINGER BERRY 610 KEMPTON
Hit a hattrick back in Jan 14 and although not winning he has been pretty consistent. Ran a decent race over C&D last time, beating a subsequent winner in the process. Patrick Pilley has been making strides recently with 4 winners from 13 rides this month.
DOUBLE DISCOUNT 740 KEMPTON
C&D winner, dropped 3lb after disappointing efforts up in class. Record in this grade is pretty decent 353322 in the last 12 months. 7/1 makes him big enough for small margin Each Way players and hopefully he can put a 1 on the end of that list.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
DHAULAR DHAR 520 AYR
Scored his 12th career win at Wolverhampton in January, didn't get extended trip last tie out. He has won over today's trip, albeit a while ago. He's a likeable horse and it's always dangerous to discount Jim Goldie north of the wall.
THE GINGER BERRY 610 KEMPTON
Hit a hattrick back in Jan 14 and although not winning he has been pretty consistent. Ran a decent race over C&D last time, beating a subsequent winner in the process. Patrick Pilley has been making strides recently with 4 winners from 13 rides this month.
DOUBLE DISCOUNT 740 KEMPTON
C&D winner, dropped 3lb after disappointing efforts up in class. Record in this grade is pretty decent 353322 in the last 12 months. 7/1 makes him big enough for small margin Each Way players and hopefully he can put a 1 on the end of that list.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Monday 18 May 2015
Tuesday 18 May
Morning, it's very difficult to eulogise yesterday's efforts in words of more than one syllable that aren't crass or vulgar, so we shall just move on with dignity.
DUKE STREET 240 CHEPSTOW
Yard has posted 12 winners this month so far. This one is interesting on turf debut. He's already beaten 2 of the 3 above him in the betting, although you'd assume one of those may not run.
NEEDLESS SHOUTING 300 NOTTINGHAM
This is a drop in class from last time out, trip is no concern. Mick Channon doesn't send many to Nottingham but 40% of the ones he has in the last year have finished in the frame at least. With 12/1 about this it's worth an each way bet.
RUM SWIZZLE 720 CHELMSFORD
This one is in my notebook, and I'd be grateful if I could work out why. What I do know is that she beat the favourite last time out so something is wrong in the pricing. At 12/1 I'm happy to have a bet and see what happens.
DYNAMO WALT 820 CHELMSFORD
C&D winner. Been finishing in the frame in better races recently and now dropped in class presumably to grab a win. My amateur calculations suggest he holds all of these on formlines and hopefully can get home in front.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
DUKE STREET 240 CHEPSTOW
Yard has posted 12 winners this month so far. This one is interesting on turf debut. He's already beaten 2 of the 3 above him in the betting, although you'd assume one of those may not run.
NEEDLESS SHOUTING 300 NOTTINGHAM
This is a drop in class from last time out, trip is no concern. Mick Channon doesn't send many to Nottingham but 40% of the ones he has in the last year have finished in the frame at least. With 12/1 about this it's worth an each way bet.
RUM SWIZZLE 720 CHELMSFORD
This one is in my notebook, and I'd be grateful if I could work out why. What I do know is that she beat the favourite last time out so something is wrong in the pricing. At 12/1 I'm happy to have a bet and see what happens.
DYNAMO WALT 820 CHELMSFORD
C&D winner. Been finishing in the frame in better races recently and now dropped in class presumably to grab a win. My amateur calculations suggest he holds all of these on formlines and hopefully can get home in front.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 17 May 2015
Monday 18 May
Morning all. Hit the bar yesterday with two 2nds and a 3rd. Here goes for today.
KEEP IT DARK 350 REDCAR (14/1)
C&D winner off just 2lb higher. More respectable runs than bad ones, could probably do with a bit of rain but does have form on fast ground.
AMENABLE 530 SOUTHWELL (4/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)
Dual course winner back in January and has placed here since. You could have put anything from the Beverley race last time in your notebook as there were multiple hard luck stories.
SILVER WINGS 705 WINDSOR (11/10 Paddy Power)
This Zebedee colt broke his maiden at the first attempt here before being narrowly touched off by the useful Rah Rah in the Lily Agnes at Chester. He should be favourite today and isn't.
Good Luck
KEEP IT DARK 350 REDCAR (14/1)
C&D winner off just 2lb higher. More respectable runs than bad ones, could probably do with a bit of rain but does have form on fast ground.
AMENABLE 530 SOUTHWELL (4/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)
Dual course winner back in January and has placed here since. You could have put anything from the Beverley race last time in your notebook as there were multiple hard luck stories.
SILVER WINGS 705 WINDSOR (11/10 Paddy Power)
This Zebedee colt broke his maiden at the first attempt here before being narrowly touched off by the useful Rah Rah in the Lily Agnes at Chester. He should be favourite today and isn't.
Good Luck
Saturday 16 May 2015
Sunday 17 May
Morning all. Night Of Thunder was game enough in front to give us a little profit yesterday. I have 3 today, hopefully they'll all run their race.
THE BROCK INN 230 LIMERICK (6/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)
I actually backed her a fortnight ago in a prize bumper at the Punchestown festival. She ran a creditable 4th that day and this looks, on paper, easier for her hurdles debut. Mark Enright has a 15% win rate, 36% place rate, and a £39 LSP when teaming up with this yard.
BUCK MULLIGAN 325 STRATFORD (8/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes)
A versatile performer, always capable on a going day. Record at Stratford reads very well indeed 15312. Struggled in the SkyBet Chase, but this is a far more sensible target.
LEXINGTON PLACE 450 RIPON (10/1 Paddy Power)
Put together a 4 timer 2 summers ago and hasn't won since.....but......he's slipping back down to that sort of mark and the booking of hot conditional Shane Gray is a massive positive, in fact he's the only pilot in the field that doesn't claim today.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
THE BROCK INN 230 LIMERICK (6/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)
I actually backed her a fortnight ago in a prize bumper at the Punchestown festival. She ran a creditable 4th that day and this looks, on paper, easier for her hurdles debut. Mark Enright has a 15% win rate, 36% place rate, and a £39 LSP when teaming up with this yard.
BUCK MULLIGAN 325 STRATFORD (8/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes)
A versatile performer, always capable on a going day. Record at Stratford reads very well indeed 15312. Struggled in the SkyBet Chase, but this is a far more sensible target.
LEXINGTON PLACE 450 RIPON (10/1 Paddy Power)
Put together a 4 timer 2 summers ago and hasn't won since.....but......he's slipping back down to that sort of mark and the booking of hot conditional Shane Gray is a massive positive, in fact he's the only pilot in the field that doesn't claim today.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Friday 15 May 2015
Saturday 16 May
Morning, disappointing yesterday. Today looks tricky, I'm going to pop down 3 and see how they go.
NIGHT OF THUNDER 345 NEWBURY
Didn't manage to record a win after landing last year's 2000 Guineas, but got close on a few occasions. He sets the standard in the race.
TREAT YOURSELF 350 PUNCHESTOWN
Ran pretty much as his odds would suggest here at the festival, that race has thrown up a winner from behind already. Handicapper taken off a lb, a podium finish certainly is not far away.
CONFESSIONAL 450 THIRSK
Not won for a while but generally shapes as if one is no far away. Eyecatching 2nd at Chester having been drawn 8 of 11 gives confidence for today.
Good Luck
NIGHT OF THUNDER 345 NEWBURY
Didn't manage to record a win after landing last year's 2000 Guineas, but got close on a few occasions. He sets the standard in the race.
TREAT YOURSELF 350 PUNCHESTOWN
Ran pretty much as his odds would suggest here at the festival, that race has thrown up a winner from behind already. Handicapper taken off a lb, a podium finish certainly is not far away.
CONFESSIONAL 450 THIRSK
Not won for a while but generally shapes as if one is no far away. Eyecatching 2nd at Chester having been drawn 8 of 11 gives confidence for today.
Good Luck
Thursday 14 May 2015
Friday 15 May
Morning. No good yesterday. I have 4 today.
PRINCE OF PARIS 430 NEWBURY
Winner off 2lb higher when last in this class, been racing in higher. Martin Lane shows £38 Level Stake Profit when riding for Roger Ingram in last 12 months.
SPIRITUAL STAR 440 NEWMARKET
Broke his maiden at this track, winner over the trip as recent as January. Has it to prove this high in the weights but hasn't been far away last twice.
ONE MORE GO 620 HAMILTON
Relatively useful bumper performer. Trainer has 26% Strike Rate at this track in the last year. Only worry is he might find things happening a bit too quickly for him here.
MEADOWCROFT BOY 705 AINTREE
Looked useful at the start of his career, things levelled out but potentially there's an upturn arounfd the corner. Excuses 2 starts ago when pulled up amongst better company and stayed on eye-catchingly into second over a shorter trip last time out. Hills and Coral take no chances going 12s when there's 16s available (Lads, Victor)
My York darts for today
210 SILK BOW
240 TOP TUG
315 BROWN PANTHER
345 JELLY MONGER
420 MISS MULBBERRY
450 BINT DANDY
520 ROSENBAUM
Good Luck and Happy Punting
PRINCE OF PARIS 430 NEWBURY
Winner off 2lb higher when last in this class, been racing in higher. Martin Lane shows £38 Level Stake Profit when riding for Roger Ingram in last 12 months.
SPIRITUAL STAR 440 NEWMARKET
Broke his maiden at this track, winner over the trip as recent as January. Has it to prove this high in the weights but hasn't been far away last twice.
ONE MORE GO 620 HAMILTON
Relatively useful bumper performer. Trainer has 26% Strike Rate at this track in the last year. Only worry is he might find things happening a bit too quickly for him here.
MEADOWCROFT BOY 705 AINTREE
Looked useful at the start of his career, things levelled out but potentially there's an upturn arounfd the corner. Excuses 2 starts ago when pulled up amongst better company and stayed on eye-catchingly into second over a shorter trip last time out. Hills and Coral take no chances going 12s when there's 16s available (Lads, Victor)
My York darts for today
210 SILK BOW
240 TOP TUG
315 BROWN PANTHER
345 JELLY MONGER
420 MISS MULBBERRY
450 BINT DANDY
520 ROSENBAUM
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday 13 May 2015
Thursday 14 May
Just a quick one this morning. Me and York aren't generally friends financially so I tend to tread careful this week. But saying that I have one at York today that, to be frank, looks to good to be true.
PERFECT PASTURE 210 YORK (11/1 BetVictor/Paddy Power)
This one has won 7 of 17 career starts, not bad, 4 from 9 on turf, okay, but here's the doozy. When racing over 5f his record reads 11111. WOW. Add to that the glaringly eyecatching name of the man booked to steer, Ryan Moore, the 11/1 looks too big.
SILVERTON 510 PERTH (3/1 Bet365)
Consistent mare, she regularly runs her race. Mark creeping up but she's had a little rest and hopefully comes back wound up for this.
THE THIRD MAN 550 NEWMARKET (7/1 Coral)
Lightly raced, rarely far away. Form of last 2 efforts working out relatively well and could be a big player today if things fall right.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
PERFECT PASTURE 210 YORK (11/1 BetVictor/Paddy Power)
This one has won 7 of 17 career starts, not bad, 4 from 9 on turf, okay, but here's the doozy. When racing over 5f his record reads 11111. WOW. Add to that the glaringly eyecatching name of the man booked to steer, Ryan Moore, the 11/1 looks too big.
SILVERTON 510 PERTH (3/1 Bet365)
Consistent mare, she regularly runs her race. Mark creeping up but she's had a little rest and hopefully comes back wound up for this.
THE THIRD MAN 550 NEWMARKET (7/1 Coral)
Lightly raced, rarely far away. Form of last 2 efforts working out relatively well and could be a big player today if things fall right.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Monday 11 May 2015
Tuesday 12 May
Morning all, so yesterday was good. One bet, wins at 7/1 SP, or 8/1 if you were quick off the mark. I'm having 7 bets today, hopefully not giving back all of yesterday's profit though.
AMTIRED 245 SEDGEFIELD (7/1 widely available)
Not easy to win with but has made the frame on half his career starts. He's been competitive off much higher ratings than he finds himself running at now and was narrowly denied under today's jockey back in January. Has been given every chance and looks at least an each way steal to me.
PULL THE PIN 255 BEVERLEY (14/1 Victor, Hills, Sky)
Another tricky to win with, last win coming in 2013, but recorded 2 seconds and 3 thirds last summer on turf. Mark hasn't waivered a whole great deal and jockey is very capable. Might struggle to get lead he wants from extreme draw though.
DARING DRAGON 255 BEVERLEY (28/1 Bet365)
Nearly half that price with most other firms. Drawn well and could get a tow along from a couple that want to make the running. Often does his best work late on so if he's within striking distance it's not unthinkable that he could at least land a blow on the places.
MICK THE BOYO 330 LIMERICK (11/1 Bet365)
Still a maiden but wasn't far behind the progressive Bog War 2 starts ago. This looks slightly easier on paper than last time out when he finished 3rd, the second that day has gone on and won since so form looks reasonable.
ROBBEN 425 BEVERLEY (12/1 Ladbrokes/Bet365)
Didn't land a blow under similar conditions last time, but smaller field today should see him more involved. Mark looks workable albeit out of the handicap, has the beating of 1 of today's rivals so he shouldn't come last, there's form in his book that suggests he shouldn't be a maiden forever.
TEN TIMES BETTER 500 LIMERICK (8/1 Bet365)
Either she's a dodgepot, or she keeps bumping into 1 or 2 decent ones. For the most part horses that have beaten her have gone on and won or placed so form holds up. There's a Mullins/Mullins and a Elliot/Carberry prospects to consider today but the selection has experience in the book, and the in form Katie Walsh on board.
SPELLMAKER 835 CHELMSFORD (Widely 6/1)
35% at this trip on AW surfaces isn't a bad record, and he's been within 2 lengths of victory on 3 of 4 efforts at this track. The golden girl Hayley Turner resumes here affiliation with the hose and she's been riding very well of late.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
AMTIRED 245 SEDGEFIELD (7/1 widely available)
Not easy to win with but has made the frame on half his career starts. He's been competitive off much higher ratings than he finds himself running at now and was narrowly denied under today's jockey back in January. Has been given every chance and looks at least an each way steal to me.
PULL THE PIN 255 BEVERLEY (14/1 Victor, Hills, Sky)
Another tricky to win with, last win coming in 2013, but recorded 2 seconds and 3 thirds last summer on turf. Mark hasn't waivered a whole great deal and jockey is very capable. Might struggle to get lead he wants from extreme draw though.
DARING DRAGON 255 BEVERLEY (28/1 Bet365)
Nearly half that price with most other firms. Drawn well and could get a tow along from a couple that want to make the running. Often does his best work late on so if he's within striking distance it's not unthinkable that he could at least land a blow on the places.
MICK THE BOYO 330 LIMERICK (11/1 Bet365)
Still a maiden but wasn't far behind the progressive Bog War 2 starts ago. This looks slightly easier on paper than last time out when he finished 3rd, the second that day has gone on and won since so form looks reasonable.
ROBBEN 425 BEVERLEY (12/1 Ladbrokes/Bet365)
Didn't land a blow under similar conditions last time, but smaller field today should see him more involved. Mark looks workable albeit out of the handicap, has the beating of 1 of today's rivals so he shouldn't come last, there's form in his book that suggests he shouldn't be a maiden forever.
TEN TIMES BETTER 500 LIMERICK (8/1 Bet365)
Either she's a dodgepot, or she keeps bumping into 1 or 2 decent ones. For the most part horses that have beaten her have gone on and won or placed so form holds up. There's a Mullins/Mullins and a Elliot/Carberry prospects to consider today but the selection has experience in the book, and the in form Katie Walsh on board.
SPELLMAKER 835 CHELMSFORD (Widely 6/1)
35% at this trip on AW surfaces isn't a bad record, and he's been within 2 lengths of victory on 3 of 4 efforts at this track. The golden girl Hayley Turner resumes here affiliation with the hose and she's been riding very well of late.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 10 May 2015
Monday May 11
Morning, I've had a bit of a break. It's tough doing this, having a full time job, and raising three kids. It leaves little time for Football Manager, the struggle is real people. Anyway, I just have 1 today, and it's speculative but we'll see how we go.
HOUDINI 255 WOLVERHAMPTON (Generally 8/1)
Dropped a couple of pounds for coming 5th on handicap debut, the second from that race has come out and won. Timmy Murphy takes the ride, looking for his first winner since switching from the jumps. He has met Longside and Arlechino's Leap previously and is on more favourable terms with both today.
Good Luck
HOUDINI 255 WOLVERHAMPTON (Generally 8/1)
Dropped a couple of pounds for coming 5th on handicap debut, the second from that race has come out and won. Timmy Murphy takes the ride, looking for his first winner since switching from the jumps. He has met Longside and Arlechino's Leap previously and is on more favourable terms with both today.
Good Luck
Sunday 3 May 2015
Monday 4 May
Morning, did everyone enjoy the Guineas weekend. For me the biggest punting success of the weekend was watching a chap dressed as an inflatable duck beat a casually dressed gentleman in a race across floating punts in the river Cam. Anyway, here's today's treble.
EMILY DAVISON 155 BATH
A solid run down on the south coast last week, gets another chance today on similar ground under similar conditions and should certainly go close again.
ROUSAYAN 245 BEVERLEY
Close second a week ago in a race that has already thrown up a winner. Yard in very good form, especially with handicappers.
SAKHALIN STAR 320 BEVERLEY
Taking a chance that this one mirrors 2014. He needed a run in April before scoring in May off a 2lb higher mark than today. Seen overnight money.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
EMILY DAVISON 155 BATH
A solid run down on the south coast last week, gets another chance today on similar ground under similar conditions and should certainly go close again.
ROUSAYAN 245 BEVERLEY
Close second a week ago in a race that has already thrown up a winner. Yard in very good form, especially with handicappers.
SAKHALIN STAR 320 BEVERLEY
Taking a chance that this one mirrors 2014. He needed a run in April before scoring in May off a 2lb higher mark than today. Seen overnight money.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Wednesday 29 April 2015
Thursday 30 April
Morning, again some winners yesterday. I put up 11 in total and had a 12/1 winner so profit made again. I'm going to be honest, there's nothing I'm overly excited about today, my NAP would do well to sneak into a treble somedays and I only have 5 speculative ones in total. But we'll see how they go, if 1 scores we should be in profit so what's to lose?
LYRICAL THEATRE 715 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
For me she's the one to beat. She's the highest rated and gets weight from her closest rival, who she's already beaten off level weights. Sure I'm in no position sat here at my kitchen table to tell Ruby Walsh that he's on the wrong horse, but I think the prices reflect the jockeys not the horses here.
LUDO ET EMERGO 415 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
A good battling win at Limerick a month ago and form when out of the top end races is pretty good. Concern is the ground might be a bit quick, but If he can run his race then for me he can go close.
SILVER DIXIE 435 LINGFIELD (T)
C&D record is pretty good 124 (the 1 off today's mark, the 2 off 13lb higher, the 4 off 4lb higher) so the handicapper has presented him with a good chance today. At a best price 10/1 (Paddy Power) he's a solid bit of each way value.
the other 2!
DISTRICT ATTORNEY 215 SEDGE
KEEP ON TRACK 450 PUNCH
Good Luck and Happy Punting
LYRICAL THEATRE 715 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
For me she's the one to beat. She's the highest rated and gets weight from her closest rival, who she's already beaten off level weights. Sure I'm in no position sat here at my kitchen table to tell Ruby Walsh that he's on the wrong horse, but I think the prices reflect the jockeys not the horses here.
LUDO ET EMERGO 415 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
A good battling win at Limerick a month ago and form when out of the top end races is pretty good. Concern is the ground might be a bit quick, but If he can run his race then for me he can go close.
SILVER DIXIE 435 LINGFIELD (T)
C&D record is pretty good 124 (the 1 off today's mark, the 2 off 13lb higher, the 4 off 4lb higher) so the handicapper has presented him with a good chance today. At a best price 10/1 (Paddy Power) he's a solid bit of each way value.
the other 2!
DISTRICT ATTORNEY 215 SEDGE
KEEP ON TRACK 450 PUNCH
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday 28 April 2015
Wednesday 29 April
Morning, so we picked up, obviously Douvan, but 2 more winners on top at 5/1 and 15/2, a solid profit for the day. Hopefully more of the same today. There's sadly no time to go in depth today so will just be a list. I'll pop my treble down, then the extras.
DON COSSACK 530 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
NO MORE HEROES 455 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
LIMATO 405 ASCOT (T)
DEUCE AGAIN 330 ASCOT
COTTRELL 355 WOLVES
SADLER'S RISK 420 PUNCH
KINGSWINFORD 505 WOLVES
NARBOROUGH 520 PONTE
BALLYADAM APPROACH 640 PUNCH
BAILEYS PURSUIT 655 LING
STANLOW 800 LING
Good luck and Happy Punting
DON COSSACK 530 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
NO MORE HEROES 455 PUNCHESTOWN (Nb)
LIMATO 405 ASCOT (T)
DEUCE AGAIN 330 ASCOT
COTTRELL 355 WOLVES
SADLER'S RISK 420 PUNCH
KINGSWINFORD 505 WOLVES
NARBOROUGH 520 PONTE
BALLYADAM APPROACH 640 PUNCH
BAILEYS PURSUIT 655 LING
STANLOW 800 LING
Good luck and Happy Punting
Monday 27 April 2015
Tuesday 28 April
Morning all, a couple winners yesterday. 13/8 and 5/4 SPs meant about a 12p/£ loss at LSP, but both were backed so provided you took a price you'd be okay. I've stumbled across a format that I'm going to stick with. I'm going pop up my treble for the day, with a writeup of sorts, then just list any further that were in the calculations. We'll see what happens.
DOUVAN 420 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
No excuses here, he's short, he's the best, he's going to add at least 20% to your winnings when doubled up. There's nothing in this race that would concern me. He should be unbackable, but he isn't, Paddy Power have gone 2/7, and ROI of 28.5%, no bank is giving you that. Obviously there's the small matter of a few bits of wood h has to jump but 28% on a horse that's never looked flustered, never made a blemish, good luck Paddy.
DR RED EYE 225 BRIGHTON (Nb)
Last week Dr Red Eye went down a length giving Ganymede 2lb, today he receives 5lb from the same horse. The other 2 are C&D winners but far from consistent. Expect a solid go from the front. hopefully the weight swing can keep him there.
FELIX YONGER 530 PUNCHESTOWN
I was shocked with the price of this horse, a multiple Grade 2 winner, who seems to be better than ever this year. Okay, there's Grade 1 winners in the race but for me Felix has shown enough to suggest he might be able to mix it with the big boys. This doesn't look the strongest Grade 1 in truth and again it's Paddy sticking their heads above the crowd with a generous 8/1.
JAZRI 255 BRIGHTON
MAIDEN APPROACH 315 NOTTS
STORMBOUND 355 BRIGHTON
FRONTLINE 455 PUNCHESTOWN
COSMIC CHATTER 615 NEWCASTLE
VALSEUR LIDO 640 PUNCHESTOWN
Good Luck and Happy Punting
DOUVAN 420 PUNCHESTOWN (NAP)
No excuses here, he's short, he's the best, he's going to add at least 20% to your winnings when doubled up. There's nothing in this race that would concern me. He should be unbackable, but he isn't, Paddy Power have gone 2/7, and ROI of 28.5%, no bank is giving you that. Obviously there's the small matter of a few bits of wood h has to jump but 28% on a horse that's never looked flustered, never made a blemish, good luck Paddy.
DR RED EYE 225 BRIGHTON (Nb)
Last week Dr Red Eye went down a length giving Ganymede 2lb, today he receives 5lb from the same horse. The other 2 are C&D winners but far from consistent. Expect a solid go from the front. hopefully the weight swing can keep him there.
FELIX YONGER 530 PUNCHESTOWN
I was shocked with the price of this horse, a multiple Grade 2 winner, who seems to be better than ever this year. Okay, there's Grade 1 winners in the race but for me Felix has shown enough to suggest he might be able to mix it with the big boys. This doesn't look the strongest Grade 1 in truth and again it's Paddy sticking their heads above the crowd with a generous 8/1.
JAZRI 255 BRIGHTON
MAIDEN APPROACH 315 NOTTS
STORMBOUND 355 BRIGHTON
FRONTLINE 455 PUNCHESTOWN
COSMIC CHATTER 615 NEWCASTLE
VALSEUR LIDO 640 PUNCHESTOWN
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Sunday 26 April 2015
Monday 27 April
Morning, just the 11/4 winner from 5 shots yesterday meant a small loss but nothing too much to worry about. I have 5 again today, with a bit of luck we'll get the 2 winners we need for a profit and work from there.
MARCIANO 130 SOUTHWELL
Destroyed a class 4 here in February from out of the handicap, and has a crack at a class 5 today. Last time's run at Pontefract should be ignored as the horse wore no headgear. No headgear form reads 08008 whereas with headgear (cheekpieces today) reads 1746531, so why they left off last time is case for Mr Holmes. This won't be easy as it's full of horses that like this surface but I think Marciano can kick on again.
SUBSTANTIVO 355 KEMPTON
A 16 time raced maiden isn't a prospect you'd be laying down the deeds of your house upon, but he put in a very eyecatching effort over C&D last time out, running into 3rd from a bad draw and finding trouble. He's drawn pretty much where you'd want to be drawn and David Probert given the legup again. He'll do well to find a better chance to break his duck than today.
LUCKY MARK 445 SOUTHWELL
C&D record since November reads 211433, you have to assume on that he'll be there or thereabouts again. Dropped a pound by the handicapper despite coming 3rd in a race that's working out well, the second has won twice since including once up in class.
CRAZY CHIC 750 WOLVES
Credible 3rd on his only previous all weather run, he's completely unexposed and although you're working a little on trust, Marco Botti does well in these events so should have every chance.
SWENDAB 820 WOLVES
Has generally run well here since the surface changed, one blip where he didn't get 7f when tried at that trip. Has it all to do from top weight and a wide draw, but I think that's factored into the price for you which makes him a shot of value.
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
MARCIANO 130 SOUTHWELL
Destroyed a class 4 here in February from out of the handicap, and has a crack at a class 5 today. Last time's run at Pontefract should be ignored as the horse wore no headgear. No headgear form reads 08008 whereas with headgear (cheekpieces today) reads 1746531, so why they left off last time is case for Mr Holmes. This won't be easy as it's full of horses that like this surface but I think Marciano can kick on again.
SUBSTANTIVO 355 KEMPTON
A 16 time raced maiden isn't a prospect you'd be laying down the deeds of your house upon, but he put in a very eyecatching effort over C&D last time out, running into 3rd from a bad draw and finding trouble. He's drawn pretty much where you'd want to be drawn and David Probert given the legup again. He'll do well to find a better chance to break his duck than today.
LUCKY MARK 445 SOUTHWELL
C&D record since November reads 211433, you have to assume on that he'll be there or thereabouts again. Dropped a pound by the handicapper despite coming 3rd in a race that's working out well, the second has won twice since including once up in class.
CRAZY CHIC 750 WOLVES
Credible 3rd on his only previous all weather run, he's completely unexposed and although you're working a little on trust, Marco Botti does well in these events so should have every chance.
SWENDAB 820 WOLVES
Has generally run well here since the surface changed, one blip where he didn't get 7f when tried at that trip. Has it all to do from top weight and a wide draw, but I think that's factored into the price for you which makes him a shot of value.
Good Luck and Happy Punting.
Saturday 25 April 2015
Sunday 26 April
Morning all, a solid day Friday, I think I'm going to be brave enough to add a P/L ticker as of the 1st May, we'll see. I have 5 today. There was no blog yesterday, party due to time constraints and partly because I thought I had made a tweak too far and wasn't being consistent in my race dissection on the day. Personally it showed as 13 horses I backed finished placed, it was highly frustrating.
SAVED MY BACON 245 CHELMSFORD
Record at the track reads 311, sure it's a drop back to 5f but he seems to have the pace to cope and was collared close home over the same trip at Southwell less than a fortnight ago.
ELM GROVE 325 GOWRAN PARK
Ran respectably last time out, from out of the handicap with the jockey putting up overweight too. He's been officially dropped 4lb, and when all calculations done it puts him 8lb lower than last time out. He didn't get the mile that day and is dropped to 7f today, you have to assume that he has a chance.
RUN WITH PRIDE 420 CHELMSFORD
Not punished by the handicapper for a decent run here 10 days ago, this is a tougher test but should be thereabouts again.
CLIFTON MISS 500 GOWRAN PARK
Only started here career at the back end of last season and is yet to score but she posted a reasonable effort on handicap debut and holds a few of these on formlines.
CONRY 525 CHELMSFORD
This horse has been tumbling down the weights and this is a drop in class down to basement level. Positive jockey booking. For me if Conry wants this, it's his for the taking. If only it were that easy huh?
Good Luck and Happy Punting
SAVED MY BACON 245 CHELMSFORD
Record at the track reads 311, sure it's a drop back to 5f but he seems to have the pace to cope and was collared close home over the same trip at Southwell less than a fortnight ago.
ELM GROVE 325 GOWRAN PARK
Ran respectably last time out, from out of the handicap with the jockey putting up overweight too. He's been officially dropped 4lb, and when all calculations done it puts him 8lb lower than last time out. He didn't get the mile that day and is dropped to 7f today, you have to assume that he has a chance.
RUN WITH PRIDE 420 CHELMSFORD
Not punished by the handicapper for a decent run here 10 days ago, this is a tougher test but should be thereabouts again.
CLIFTON MISS 500 GOWRAN PARK
Only started here career at the back end of last season and is yet to score but she posted a reasonable effort on handicap debut and holds a few of these on formlines.
CONRY 525 CHELMSFORD
This horse has been tumbling down the weights and this is a drop in class down to basement level. Positive jockey booking. For me if Conry wants this, it's his for the taking. If only it were that easy huh?
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Thursday 23 April 2015
Friday 24 April
A disappointing blank yesterday, a couple placed but no joy. I have 12 today! Sadly time is at a premium so I'll just pop them down.
WESTERN HYMN 200 SANDOWN
LONGSHADOW 220 DONCASTER
BRETON ROCK 230 SANDOWN
KODAFINE 325 DONCASTER
ANGELITO 400 DONCASTER
FULL JACK 420 PERTH
LOS NADIS 450 PERTH
IRON MAJOR (NAP) 705 DUNDALK
MIDNIGHT DOVE 740 CHEPSTOW
SPARTILLA 755 PLUMPTON
BASILICA 805 DUNDALK
HOUSE LIMIT 835 DUNDALK
WESTERN HYMN 200 SANDOWN
LONGSHADOW 220 DONCASTER
BRETON ROCK 230 SANDOWN
KODAFINE 325 DONCASTER
ANGELITO 400 DONCASTER
FULL JACK 420 PERTH
LOS NADIS 450 PERTH
IRON MAJOR (NAP) 705 DUNDALK
MIDNIGHT DOVE 740 CHEPSTOW
SPARTILLA 755 PLUMPTON
BASILICA 805 DUNDALK
HOUSE LIMIT 835 DUNDALK
Wednesday 22 April 2015
Thursday 23 April
Morning, and a good bounce back to something resembling form yesterday. Wins at 8/1 and 7/2 with 4/1 and 25/1 shots finishing second. I have 6 today, hopefully one or two will score.
FLAWLESS FILLY 250 PERTH
Useful on the flat, was roughly a 70 rated performer which should make her capable of getting close to 100 over obstacles so her mark of 90 has some scope, potentially. Obviously it's not always black and white but there's just a little twinkle that says this one is worth watching for a little while, if not today then you'd naturally expect her to drop in class slightly next time.
AMBLESIDE 330 BEVERLEY
Tumbled down the handicap after struggling last campaign and is back down to his last winning mark. Fit from a run 2 weeks ago on ground probably a bit softer than he'd have wanted.
HI EMPRESS 545 TIPPERARY
Narrowly touched off when returning from a 100+ day break at this meeting last year, Wayne Lordan is an eye catching jockey booking, the 3yo in the field is the worry taking lumps of weight but Paddys put up 13/2 if you prefer to try each way.
SCHOTTISCHE 735 SOUTHWELL
At least placed (1 was win) 3 times in 5 handicaps here, other results were 4/11 and 6/13 so hardly disasters. This is an open looking race though I actually have Venus Grace as a danger and Minionette was very close to hitting another set of criteria. Having first run for Alan Bailey who has had 50% of the runners he's sent to Southwell in the last year make the frame.
COOL OSCAR 745 TIPPERARY
Generally gives his running at this track, winning here in October under today's pilot Paul Townend. Has it all to do off top weight but Townend is a jockey that will give the horse every chance.
SMUGGLERS LANE 755 BATH
In form to date this year, worth chancing at a good price for a trainer who is profitable to follow at this track.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
FLAWLESS FILLY 250 PERTH
Useful on the flat, was roughly a 70 rated performer which should make her capable of getting close to 100 over obstacles so her mark of 90 has some scope, potentially. Obviously it's not always black and white but there's just a little twinkle that says this one is worth watching for a little while, if not today then you'd naturally expect her to drop in class slightly next time.
AMBLESIDE 330 BEVERLEY
Tumbled down the handicap after struggling last campaign and is back down to his last winning mark. Fit from a run 2 weeks ago on ground probably a bit softer than he'd have wanted.
HI EMPRESS 545 TIPPERARY
Narrowly touched off when returning from a 100+ day break at this meeting last year, Wayne Lordan is an eye catching jockey booking, the 3yo in the field is the worry taking lumps of weight but Paddys put up 13/2 if you prefer to try each way.
SCHOTTISCHE 735 SOUTHWELL
At least placed (1 was win) 3 times in 5 handicaps here, other results were 4/11 and 6/13 so hardly disasters. This is an open looking race though I actually have Venus Grace as a danger and Minionette was very close to hitting another set of criteria. Having first run for Alan Bailey who has had 50% of the runners he's sent to Southwell in the last year make the frame.
COOL OSCAR 745 TIPPERARY
Generally gives his running at this track, winning here in October under today's pilot Paul Townend. Has it all to do off top weight but Townend is a jockey that will give the horse every chance.
SMUGGLERS LANE 755 BATH
In form to date this year, worth chancing at a good price for a trainer who is profitable to follow at this track.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Tuesday 21 April 2015
Wednesday 23 April
Morning, I'm on a bad run right now, it's perplexing in truth, I can normally get about 1 in 6 to the winning line, on average, I'm putting up 8 today, I don't have time to go in to deep but I'll throw up a few words of positivity.
SWISS CROSS 210 EPSOM
Put in 2 solid efforts at Epsom last summer around today's mark, will appreciate quick ground.
PAVERS STAR 235 CATTERICK
Hit a purlple patch at the back end of the last turf season, icluding 2 good runs at today's venue. Big chance if ready to go again.
PERTUIS 310 CATTERICK
C&D winner, kept fit over winter hurdling. Only previous time Graham Lee sat on the horse it won.
REGAL DAN 420 CATTERICK
Been tumbling down the weights, David O'Meara has picked him up. Anyone who's been watching racing the last couple weeks will have seen how much Mr O'Meara has been getting over the handicapper.
OXALIDO 440 PERTH
On a workable mark sent back hurdling. Won on only previous visit to track off just 1lb lower.
CANGO 510 PERTH
Has a massive weight swing reopposing the favourite, hopefully can make that count today.
SMALLJOHN 520 CATTERICK
Was involved in a race that has thrown up a few winners 2 starts ago at Wolverhampton. Last time out found 1 too good but will like better ground today. Often an advantage in these races to look for the jockeys who don't claim.
LONAN 525 FAIRYHOUSE
Travelled well and finished 3rd on handicap debut last time out. Should be on the premises again today.
Good Luck if you follow, or if you use these to narrow your race down. Happy Punting
SWISS CROSS 210 EPSOM
Put in 2 solid efforts at Epsom last summer around today's mark, will appreciate quick ground.
PAVERS STAR 235 CATTERICK
Hit a purlple patch at the back end of the last turf season, icluding 2 good runs at today's venue. Big chance if ready to go again.
PERTUIS 310 CATTERICK
C&D winner, kept fit over winter hurdling. Only previous time Graham Lee sat on the horse it won.
REGAL DAN 420 CATTERICK
Been tumbling down the weights, David O'Meara has picked him up. Anyone who's been watching racing the last couple weeks will have seen how much Mr O'Meara has been getting over the handicapper.
OXALIDO 440 PERTH
On a workable mark sent back hurdling. Won on only previous visit to track off just 1lb lower.
CANGO 510 PERTH
Has a massive weight swing reopposing the favourite, hopefully can make that count today.
SMALLJOHN 520 CATTERICK
Was involved in a race that has thrown up a few winners 2 starts ago at Wolverhampton. Last time out found 1 too good but will like better ground today. Often an advantage in these races to look for the jockeys who don't claim.
LONAN 525 FAIRYHOUSE
Travelled well and finished 3rd on handicap debut last time out. Should be on the premises again today.
Good Luck if you follow, or if you use these to narrow your race down. Happy Punting
Monday 20 April 2015
Tuesday 21 April
At least I got my money back on the non runner yesterday, disappointing day really. Nothing was getting up from behind at Pontefract which saw to Lexington Abbey, Chevalgris seemingly didn't get the trip after travelling well and Atlantis Crossing got no help in running. I have just one today, so I can't lose as much. Positives people, think of the positives.
KING MASSINI 240 LUDLOW
Price ranges from 5/1 to 7/1. Coral providing the top end. Ran with credit on last 3 starts, second both of last 2 times out and the start before that has had a couple of boosts to the form. This horse had a purple patch about 16 months ago, during which time he landed 2 C&D successes, the only 2 times he has lined up over C&D. add another 2nd here over a shorter trip and he has a decent record at this track. He has a decent weight swing from a previous meeting with the favourite a race in which Guiding George was ridden out for a place and this one not treated harshly.
Let's hope he goes better than yesterday's efforts. Good Luck.
KING MASSINI 240 LUDLOW
Price ranges from 5/1 to 7/1. Coral providing the top end. Ran with credit on last 3 starts, second both of last 2 times out and the start before that has had a couple of boosts to the form. This horse had a purple patch about 16 months ago, during which time he landed 2 C&D successes, the only 2 times he has lined up over C&D. add another 2nd here over a shorter trip and he has a decent record at this track. He has a decent weight swing from a previous meeting with the favourite a race in which Guiding George was ridden out for a place and this one not treated harshly.
Let's hope he goes better than yesterday's efforts. Good Luck.
Sunday 19 April 2015
Monday 20th April
The less said about yesterday's selection, the better. It ran like, well quite frankly like I had backed it. I have 4 taken my eye today. I'm hoping for a bit more excitement for my money. I'll pop them in time order.
LEXINGTON ABBEY 320 PONTEFRACT
He's been running well, and seems to enjoy the sit out and rattle late tactics that comes with a certain Mr Spencer sat on your back. This looks a squeak easier than recent tasks and the slightly smaller field might give the tactics a bit more of a chance.
CHEVALGRIS 350 PONTEFRACT
A bit of a shot in the dark as he has the trip to prove, but on decent to quick ground there's nothing to suggest he won't. The thing that caught my eye initially was the booking of Shane Gray, a young man who is on his way to the top. Upon further investigation I noticed he had ridden just once prior for Mr Swinbank and that resulted in a success aboard Lady Kashaan in a staying handicap just 2 weeks ago. You can get 8/1 and provided the dead eight line up each way players have a good bet on their side there, I think.
NINI OK 645 CORK
It would be easy to put up Bold Thady Quill, especially having been given a form boost by Flight Risk yesterday, but I won't. This one won readily at Dundalk back in January, the ability is in there. Wayne Lordan gets the ride, he narrowly missed out on the jockeys title a couple of seasons back so he's a solid man to have. This mare though, if you disect her form it's a lot better on good ground, which is few and far between a lot of the time in Ireland but she gets it today.
ATLANTIS CROSSING 755 WINDSOR
Easy to discount on recent form, but turf mark is very workable. He placed twice last summer in better races off higher marks so has to be respected here, even if only as an each way back, again that is hoping all 8 line up. Overnight players have already been in with a nibble and William Carson is a jockey that'll do you right if you needed a job done, so to speak.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
LEXINGTON ABBEY 320 PONTEFRACT
He's been running well, and seems to enjoy the sit out and rattle late tactics that comes with a certain Mr Spencer sat on your back. This looks a squeak easier than recent tasks and the slightly smaller field might give the tactics a bit more of a chance.
CHEVALGRIS 350 PONTEFRACT
A bit of a shot in the dark as he has the trip to prove, but on decent to quick ground there's nothing to suggest he won't. The thing that caught my eye initially was the booking of Shane Gray, a young man who is on his way to the top. Upon further investigation I noticed he had ridden just once prior for Mr Swinbank and that resulted in a success aboard Lady Kashaan in a staying handicap just 2 weeks ago. You can get 8/1 and provided the dead eight line up each way players have a good bet on their side there, I think.
NINI OK 645 CORK
It would be easy to put up Bold Thady Quill, especially having been given a form boost by Flight Risk yesterday, but I won't. This one won readily at Dundalk back in January, the ability is in there. Wayne Lordan gets the ride, he narrowly missed out on the jockeys title a couple of seasons back so he's a solid man to have. This mare though, if you disect her form it's a lot better on good ground, which is few and far between a lot of the time in Ireland but she gets it today.
ATLANTIS CROSSING 755 WINDSOR
Easy to discount on recent form, but turf mark is very workable. He placed twice last summer in better races off higher marks so has to be respected here, even if only as an each way back, again that is hoping all 8 line up. Overnight players have already been in with a nibble and William Carson is a jockey that'll do you right if you needed a job done, so to speak.
Good Luck and Happy Punting
Saturday 18 April 2015
Sunday 19 April
Morning, it's been a long time since I posted, but thought I'd resurrect and see how we go. I've got one horse to share today, hopefully it runs well.
DASHWOOD 320 CURRAGH (11/1 Paddy Power)
So he's only won 4 of 25 turf starts, a modest 16%, however 12 of those starts have been over differing trips making a strike over today's 6f a much more resounding 30%, also 2 placings at the trip which incidently have come at today's venue, once off current mark of 75, and once off a squeak higher at 78. His other C&D appearance was 5th of 23 off 86, so safe to say he runs his race here. Posted an excellent effort 2 starts ago on seasonal reappearance (here, 78) a race in which the horse finishing behind him has gone on and won a listed race since. At 11/1 i think he represents solid value.
DASHWOOD 320 CURRAGH (11/1 Paddy Power)
So he's only won 4 of 25 turf starts, a modest 16%, however 12 of those starts have been over differing trips making a strike over today's 6f a much more resounding 30%, also 2 placings at the trip which incidently have come at today's venue, once off current mark of 75, and once off a squeak higher at 78. His other C&D appearance was 5th of 23 off 86, so safe to say he runs his race here. Posted an excellent effort 2 starts ago on seasonal reappearance (here, 78) a race in which the horse finishing behind him has gone on and won a listed race since. At 11/1 i think he represents solid value.
Tuesday 13 January 2015
Wednesday 14 January
Morning all, and a belated Happy New Year I suppose. Thought I'd scribble down a few thoughts this morning. There's a cuple of interesting ones for me at sensible prices.
MAYBE PLENTY 325 NEWBURY (5/1 PaddyPower, SkyBet)
Won a similar event two starts ago at Warwick, but found out when stepping up to listed level last time. Eased off early in that race so margin of defeat grossly inflated.
ROYAL ACQUISITION 335 LINGFIELD (12/1 SkyBet)
All 3 career wins have come on the All Weather, 2 of them in Class 5 events at Lingfield. Last 2 starts were up in class 4 and albeit higher in the weights than win 3 starts ago, conditions are the same again. At to that it's always tricky to ignore sprinters from the Cowell yard and the booking of All Weathe specialist Adam Kirby jumps off the page.
SEE NO SHIPS 435 KEMPTON (13/2 William Hill)
A market mover overnight, and quite straightforward to see why. Dropped into basement grade at this track last time out and was a real eyecatcher, doing best work late on to pinch 3rd place. Upped in trip today in the same class off the same weight suggests the potential for moving up the podium.
EXTRATERRESTRIAL 510 (20/1 Most firms)
His All Weather record isn't great, but 7 of his 9 wins have been over today's trip. He's dropped back down to his last winning mark, a class 3 at Doncaster in June, there's no way this race will be as strong as that. On a going day he has to have a chance.
Footnote on a potential trading angle, Footstepsintherain has hit the front or very close to on last few starts before failing to get home.
One to watch
Shimba Hills 110 Newbury
Looks a winner in waiting after debut second behind a horse that has gone to to be rated. If he can build then he can go very close but the favourite has some serious form in the book having pushed David Pipe's Bidourey on last start, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th have all performed well since. But like I say Shimba Hills, with a solid effort today, should probably be one to jot down in your notebooks.
A little footy treble for tonight
ATH BILBAO
SOUTHAMPTON
TOTTENHAM
Pays just shy of 5/1 (24/5) on Bet365.
MAYBE PLENTY 325 NEWBURY (5/1 PaddyPower, SkyBet)
Won a similar event two starts ago at Warwick, but found out when stepping up to listed level last time. Eased off early in that race so margin of defeat grossly inflated.
ROYAL ACQUISITION 335 LINGFIELD (12/1 SkyBet)
All 3 career wins have come on the All Weather, 2 of them in Class 5 events at Lingfield. Last 2 starts were up in class 4 and albeit higher in the weights than win 3 starts ago, conditions are the same again. At to that it's always tricky to ignore sprinters from the Cowell yard and the booking of All Weathe specialist Adam Kirby jumps off the page.
SEE NO SHIPS 435 KEMPTON (13/2 William Hill)
A market mover overnight, and quite straightforward to see why. Dropped into basement grade at this track last time out and was a real eyecatcher, doing best work late on to pinch 3rd place. Upped in trip today in the same class off the same weight suggests the potential for moving up the podium.
EXTRATERRESTRIAL 510 (20/1 Most firms)
His All Weather record isn't great, but 7 of his 9 wins have been over today's trip. He's dropped back down to his last winning mark, a class 3 at Doncaster in June, there's no way this race will be as strong as that. On a going day he has to have a chance.
Footnote on a potential trading angle, Footstepsintherain has hit the front or very close to on last few starts before failing to get home.
One to watch
Shimba Hills 110 Newbury
Looks a winner in waiting after debut second behind a horse that has gone to to be rated. If he can build then he can go very close but the favourite has some serious form in the book having pushed David Pipe's Bidourey on last start, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th have all performed well since. But like I say Shimba Hills, with a solid effort today, should probably be one to jot down in your notebooks.
A little footy treble for tonight
ATH BILBAO
SOUTHAMPTON
TOTTENHAM
Pays just shy of 5/1 (24/5) on Bet365.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)