Thursday 16 October 2014

A little reward for my readers.

I've researched something, and I'm quite excited by it. Hopefully you will be too.
I was looking for popular scores in the Premier League that could be profitable to back blind, and have potentially stumbled across a gem. So, what I propose is this. I'll start by explaining it in points and then translate that to cash at the end so you might be able to see the value to yourself.
Back every Premier League game each week to finish 2-2. The odds are very rarely anything different to 14/1, more frequently higher than lower. Back singles at 10pts. So 10 games at 10 pts=100 points. Also back the doubles for a point. In 10 games, you'll need to stake for 45 doubles. So the total layout is 145 points each week/matchday. A single 2-2 would return 150 points, 2 games would result in a 225 point return from a double. As you should be able to work out, 1 2-2 draw would make you a 5 point profit.
Now, here's the evidence, week by week.

Matchday 1
Leicester v Everton and West Brom v Sunderland both finished 2-2.
So you've 2 singles at 150 and a double at 225, a return of 525, and importantly a profit of 380.

Matchday 2
Just Everton v Arsenal this week.
So a 150 return, profit of 5. Total profit 385.

Matchday 3
No 2-2 draws. 145 loss. But we're still 240 to the good.

Matchday 4
Here's a bumper.
Arsenal v Man City, Hull v West Ham and Sunderland v Spurs all finished 2-2.
3 singles at 150, and 3 doubles at 225. Total return of 1125, 980 profit, and 1220 cumulative profit for the season.

Matchday 5
Newcastle v Hull and QPR v Stoke
Another 525 return, add 380 profit giving us 1600 now.

Matchday 6
None 145 loss, but we have a buffer. Profit sits at 1455.

Matchday 7
Leicester v Burnley
Swansea v Newcastle
Another 525, 380 and total bank now 1835.

This is up to date. The profit made so far would cover there being not a single 2-2 draw for the next 12 matchdays.
Obviously you want to know how the points work. Well effectively you have to ensure your stakes for the single is 10 times that for the double. In easiest terms at £1 per point, you'd be £1835 up, but you would be laying out £145 every weekend, not for the faint hearted. We could make it a more working man's bet and say 20p per point. So you'd stake 10x£2 singles, and 45x20p doubles. A layout of £29 per week. Your profit to date still a respectable £367.
If that ratio of 2-2 draws per gameweek (10 games in 7 weeks) were to continue, strictly 1 every week, 2 every 3 weeks. Obviously some weeks you'll get none, and we might get another bumper with 3, but at the ratio the projected profit from matchdays 8 to 38 would be somewhere around 4200 points. So at our working man's staking suggestion £840 in your pocket at the end of the season. I'll continue to monitor and update in a few weeks time.
Any questions, you know where to find me.

2 comments:

  1. Did you check out previous seasons as to how much + or - it would have been with the system? Looks good though, good spot this season.

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  2. I won't lie to you, I didn't, I might do now though just for research sakes, it'll be interesting to see if it has been a profitable exercise in the past or if this year is an anomaly

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