This is the first time i've blogged on a Sunday this month, and to be fair there isn't a lot to inspire me! With the abandonment of Cork last night there has been room for me to be a real enthusiast and watch a few videos. It's been fun. I'm going to look at the Morgiana, but for me it's a no contest. I've picked out a Lucky 15 which my Morgiana winner will be included in, and then 3 interesting Ew bets. + I fancy a coouple of value forecasts so I shall just pop the value ones in brackets where applicable, if I remember. :-)
A cracking day yesterday with 9 winners and 8 places from 41 runners at an LSP of 11.4, Lingfield the standout LSP of 7pts, and Huntingdon the best SR of 40%. winners yesterday came in at SP of 8/13, 9/10, 11/8, 5/2, 5/2, 5/2, 9/2, 13/2 and 14/1. The 14/1 I put up on the Horse Racing Tavern!
Lets start with the Morgiana.
Akatara, you can get 125/1 for him, don't bother, he is there to pick up some decent prize money for getting round, that should ease the training fees a little.
Oscars Well - Was unlucky in the Neptune last year but I think the first 2 were all over him by that point anyway, he does look like he contains an error when wound up and there is every chance that this could get very quick towards the end, I wouldn't be having him at the price. Plus 16f has looked a little sharp for him in the past although the bottomless ground should ease the pace for him.
Pittoni - The youngest of the trio and therefore privy to the most improvement, won very cosily last time out at Naas, but these 2 rivals are in a different boat to those. For me he wants a truly run race as some of his jumping looked a little deliberate early on at Naas but vastly improved when going on. He will be one to look out for in larger fields at the festivals for sure but this is a bit too hot for him today. His best chance is if the outsider fancies a day in the sun and sets the race quick.
THOUSAND STARS - Arguably should have won more big pots but just keeps on meeting one or two superstars. On Official Ratings he takes over 10lb off his 2 rivals and yet the bookmakers have him at the same price. William Hill still hold out on their 2/1 and that needs to be gobbled up. He should be and if, i've read it right, will go off odds on, with Hurricane Fly out of the way Ruby wrestles the ride from him sister, it's a penalty kick, surely?
Obviously TS is in my L15,
240 P - DEDIGOUT
2nd on bumper debut, and interesting switched straight to hurdles when the 1 and 3 have stayed, and won, NHF. Tony Martin is a shrewd cookie at placing his horses, and this looks takeable. What is interesting for me is that the tissue prices up the Mullins horse as favourite but Patrick takes the ride rather than Ruby. I think the value is with Dedigout partnered by the brilliany Davy Russell. 9/2 tissue but 1.7 betfair so if you see odds against perhaps you should take it.
230 E - RENARD
Venetias charge gets a further 8lb added to his back, but lto he travelled very well and had some in hand when going away from a very useful field. Definately has more of these kind of races in him. 9/4 widely available
330 E - RIMINI
When he wants to, he can jump. And a very good run last time suggests that he is in good nick. A lot of the time with these conditional events you have to look for the jockey, and with Conor O'Farrell landing a biggun yesterday you will see a price on this horse piloted by the very useful and in good form Tom Cannon. 4/1 with Paddy Power.
Each Ways
245 T - EARCOMESTHEDREAM 14/1 PP and WH
Switched back to Hurdles and down to a mark between those which he placed off twice in November last year. Surely nicking a place form 14sp represents more value than an Even money Fav to win(who incidently doesn't make the top 4 in the ATR predictor, interesting)
330 E - AFRICAN EAGLE 10.5 BF I'd estimate around 8/1 when priced up
Emma Lavelle has her horses in terrific form and rarely sends one out unready. This is her only horse en route to Exeter today and that speaks volumes to me. A large field for a novice race but I think on stable form if this one is any good he can make the 3.
310 P - TOTAL REALITY 16/1 LADS and BOYLES
One a maiden hurdle on yielding ground at the back end of last year, beating one rated 107 without breaking sweat. Conditions possibly a bit heavier than that today, but had to tackle bottomless ground on reappearance last time out. This is a rise in grade for him but off a resonable 116 he carries 10-2, which when you go up in class is the equivalent of carrying a feather round in your mouth. If there were 16 runners I'd be hammering down for the 4 here but only 15 so just the 3 places, but he is more than capable if coming on for the run last time.
TOWCESTER
1245 - Cross the Flame
115 - Jolibob
145 - Harry the Viking
215 - Orion Star
245 - EARCOMESTHEDREAM
315 - Spot the Ball
345 - Typhon de Guye
EXETER
100 - Flying Award
130 - Old Wigmore
200 - Take over Sivola
230 - RENARD
300 - AFRICAN EAGLE
330 - RIMINI
PUNCHESTOWN
1240 - So Young
110 - Monastrell
140 - Last Installment
210 - THOUSAND STARS (NAP)
240 - DEDIGOUT
310 - TOTAL REALITY
340 - Make your Mark
Happy Punting and Good Luck
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