Well the Leger festival is on, which means one thing, we can begin counting down to the only festival that really gets people truly excited anymore. It also means that night racing has finished, so betting shop staff get to sit at work til 10pm in the dark for the benefit of Philadelphia, Club Hipico and some bottom grade tosh from Wolverhampton!
Speaking of tosh racing, that describes todays fare from Kempton and Carlisle, Donny's first day card is hardly interstellar, the best racing, in my opinion, today comes from Uttoxeter. But, I have to be true to the blog and remember that a lot of my readers just want to win money so Class of Race, horse, etc.. is of zero interest, they just need to know which one will win.
I am going to put a little blurb about Donny with selecs, (italics are my own thoughts rather than a system) I'm putting up a little Lucky 15 today along with the usual staking plan.
DONCASTER
200 ARENA STRUCTURES NURSERY 2yo
I'm not a huge fan of Nurseries, handicapping 2 year olds just is a bit wierd for me. The key to picking 2yo winners is how the form of prior races has panned out, and that is taken away from you by the handicapper. So I just used the system here and it threw up 3. NAME IT WHAT YOU LIKE / WEST LEAKE HARE / BLUE BANANA. 2ND
235 NAPOLEANS SHEFFIELD CONDITIONS STAKES 2yo
This is better, you can judge the 2yo on merit here. I'll start from the back, Foxtrot Romeo could be justly seen as here to make up the numbers, Brian Smarts charge won a maiden last month, but nothing has really come out of that race, one from further down the field placed in another weak event, but no page turners. Artistic Jewel is an odd one, absolutely nothing has come out of his maiden, yet his run last time out was a lot more than bare form suggests, he had a torrid time at the start and was always playing catch up, yet still managed to finish up the top half of the field. Alaskan Bullet is somewhat an unknown quantity, and i don't think deserves to be so short. He won his maiden well but although it has produced form, that form isn't really up in grade, as this race is. Far too short for my money and more potential for a lay. Eureka, Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. 6th at Goodwood in a race that produced York festival winners Caspar Netscher and Bogart, incidently he split the pair. Hasn't made the progression expected yet may find one too good again. That one should be the Godolphin entry GOLD CITY 2ND. He won his first 2 races very easily and was narrowly denied a hattrick by the impressive Gerfalcon last time out. Strictly on the Gerfalcon/Bogart line Eureka would have his beating but I think Frankie may well have got more from the horse than Ted Durcan. Frankie is on today. And it will be a scrap to the line between him and Richard Hughes.
310 SCARBOROUGH STAKES (listed)
I've put my selection here as my NAP for today. CAPTAIN DUNNE. Since being within a length and a half form future group 1 winner Prohibit in this race last year he has been consistently good. Recently though he was beaten a nose in a group 3 in france, landed the Epsom "Dash" very gamely indeed. Was just a bit outclassed, I think, in the Nunthorpe. and last time out he came across Tangerine Trees on a good day. Tangerine Trees on a good day is a bullet, strictly he has a little to find with Duchess Dora on that race but he was squeezed out when making his effort. I think he is drawn to get a lead here and will relish that. Once he is in front he will take some catching.
345 LEGENDS RACE
This is a race for pretty poor horses with old jockeys on. Sorry no disrespect is meant by that, but that's a summary. It should add a bit of fun, and I believe there is a charity aspect to it so it will be more than worthwile. I'm siding with TRIBAL MYTH under Kevin Darley. Little bet.
420 COOPERS MARQUEES STAKES
I'm sticking with a horse that I feel is always overpriced but very difficult to win with, "maybe that's why the big price, Guy?" perhaps, but i think getting a bit of weight off the 4yo will help. I think 10f is his best trip and if he can get in striking distance near the finish he has an incredible turn of foot, hopefully the smaller field will make that easier. And if there is one jockey you want on your side to use a turn of foot to his advantage. I've just realised I've been rambling on and haven't told you the horse! CAI SHEN WINNER 7/1
450 CHAMPIONS HANDICAP
There is a seriously undervalued horse in this. LOUIS THE PIOUS 2ND, last time out at Newbury, he came third for which he has been raised a lb. That seems fair. No. He missed the break and was left in rear. Waited with a little too long by the jockey. Found trouble all the way through. HAd to check his run about five times. A clean race he would have won by 3-4 lengths going away. An extra furlong that day he would have won, connections have stepped him up in trip and booked Frankie. This one has "Chicken Dinner" written all over it and at a beautiful price.
520 CLASS 4 HANDICAP (Full name far too long!)
I've gone with DRIFT AND DREAM here. Although I have a feeling that I'll be puling my hair out whatevr wins, about 6 in this have let me down more than once, and some others have let me down before. Haajes and Taurus Twins have probably been the most persistent offenders. My selection has only run once in the last year so hasn't had time to P##s me off yet. Yet!
Right onto the others.
UTTOXETER
220 FOREVER MY FRIEND
255 THE FOX'S DECREE 2ND
330 STAGECOACH AMBER
405 HALDIBARI WINNER 9/1 / YABORA 4TH
510 TRI NATIONS / IXORA 3RD / LAUSTRA BAD
CARLISLE
355 INGLEBY EXCEED
530 RESET TO FIT
KEMPTON
720 EXCHANGE
750 LUTINE CHARLIE / GRAND PIANO
The Lucky 15 is on the Italic selections. If you can't be bothered to scroll back up, Gold City, Captain Dunne, Cai Shen and Louis the Pious.
Total Placed 51pts Total Returns 33pts
Good Luck
Profit for September so far -26.05pts
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