Thursday 6th October - I'm liking Ayr today.

The "back to basics" worked yesterday as we recouped some lost stakes, nowhere near all of them, but some.
There are a few I fancy to have a big chance at Ayr today so I will look at them. + a couple of NH fancies, however my NH knowledge doesn't extend far past the big festivals I'm afraid. I'm keeping with the 1pt per selection. The potential winnings are less, but we tend to tick over better and the liability of loss is far diminished.

AYR
210 - JOSHUA THE FIRST
Been consistent, consistently frustrating! But he has finished in the frame on 7 of 11 starts, put in a decent run on soft ground last time, when 3rd in a competitive race. Could come up against a couple of useful sorts again today  most notably the well regarded Never Perfect and Silver Blaze, who is unlucky to be a maiden after a nse 2nd last time.

240 - No bet in this for me but the winner could come from, Blue Shoes, Act your shoe size, Stormy Whatever.

310 - CHOOKIE AVON
Hopefully this will seal an early double for Dalgleish, Fanning and me! This horse loves the Soft ground and is very game in front, just got collared last time out by a game winner. Drop to 6f should be fine given underfoot conditions. Deserved favourite and can't see a lot to beat him.

340 - COOL IN THE SHADE nr
He has a 6lb penalty to overcome but should make light work of that given the nature of his win last time. The well beaten second came out and won on Tuesday. Has won gamely on Gd-Sft and given the quality of opposition the Softer ground should pose little problem. He has shown he can fight a win or scoot away. And of course another winner for the champ as he aims for back to back titles.

410 - AMAZING BLUE SKY (E/w Adv) nr
In a race where nothing can be backed to win with confidence, it pays to try and find a lively Each Way price.       Ruth Carr's horses are going pretty well of late, and this one will handle Softer conditions very well. Would have to set a new career high winning mark (3lb above highest winning mark today) and has proven a bit tough to get right over the last few months, but this looks like a more suitable task today and at 14's well worth an Each Way play.

440 - No bet, most likely, Emeralds Spirit, Brockfield, Ours.

510 - MARKET PUZZLE nr
Favourite Botham was my NAP last week when he landed back to back successes, but I am taking him on here. Racheal Kneller has piloted MP to success twice over the distance on testing ground over the last six weeks. Those 2 races were Apprentice handicaps, and she takes on the pros today, I think this gelding is the best chance of taking on the favourite and should negate the 3lb rise by the fact that Rachael can take off an extra 4 against the professionals.

540 - KEYS OF CYPRUS NAP nr
Every man and his dog puts this one up in the Post this morning. It's not difficult to see why. 3 x C&D winner, 100% C&D, 60% at the course. His 2 losses here came over a longer trip in better races, incidently he finished 4th in both attempts. He seems to go well this time of year. 2 years ago he landed a couple of wins at the back end, and last year he had progressed and was competing in much better quality events than this. He has been put up 4lb for that success in a race that both the 2nd and the 9th! have come out and won next time.

My NH fancies

330 Worcester - JACKOS BOY 3rd
Been pretty inconsistent but is unexposed at this discipline on mixed chasing form. This is a very weak race and very open, jockey Harry Skelton has a profit of nearly £10 per £1 level here and this is his only ride.

245 Tramore - BELIAR 3rd
C&D winner, went well most recently over hurdles at Clonmel, gives weight away to second that day, Custodian, but should handle the ground better today.

315 Tramore - GOLAN GUY
Shrewd operator Tony Martin teams up with Ruby Walsh for an unprecedented hatrick attempt. I guess this is the equivalent of a perfect hatrick in Football, My namesake started by landing the Ulster Cesarewitch on the flat at DownRoyal, before heading to Downpatrick to land a beginner chase. Now he comes here to pick up this handicap hurdle event. Obviously all that aside, I am backing him primarily because he has my name!

Good luck all.
Total Placed 9pts Total Return 4pts

October profit(loss) -116.26
Strike Rate 8.10%