Sunday 13 May 2012

Sunday 13th May -

Morning ladies and gents, A huge day in the Premier League with the title, europe and relegation all to be decided. It's giving me goosebumps just thinking about it.
I have some football bets and I'll try to narrow them down a bit after I've given you my horses. I hope 1 or 2 of you followed me in on the Finnish games yesterday, both selections were winners, I do like Scandinavian football. Right you guys are mostly here for the horses, right? So lets get on.

Only 2 selections on this bonny island of ours today.

SIRCOZY 410 PLUMPTON

He has finished in the top 3 on over half of his NH starts, most of the blips have been in better class races, the ground should be fine, and todays jockey piloted him to his most recent victory. It's a pretty open race this but on what the selection has achieved recently Paddy Power's 7/1 looks very generous.

TARKARI 420 WORCESTER

I made this race bang between the selection and Special Agent Alfie, the latter has to be respected with the trainer in great form, but at 9/1 vs 7/4 with William Hill it's plainly obvious where I believe the value lies. I've completely missed the fact that he ran yesterday, haha, he probably won't run today, last night in fact! If he doesn't run then it should be a shoein for the favourite, if he does run then they must think he's a chance. Oops just ignore me here, it's sunday morning! What I'm saying though is that this one has a huge chance if running, especially since he was out last night, but i very much doubt he will line up.

Now onto Ireland.

Shall we look at the jumpity-jump first? why not?

DEUTSCHLAND 325 KILLARNEY

Back from a lay off, this dual purpose performer should be expected to be well, especially for this yard, and interesting that Ruby jumps on. Decent second in a similar race off a similar mark back in April 2010 is his boardmark for today really, I think he's overpriced really at Boylesports 14/1, and I'd pretty sure expect some interest given trainer/jockey combo. I also thought Whodoyouthink could outrun 40/1 odds, whether he can make the frame or not is another question.

DINGALING 355 KILLARNEY

It will be interesting to see what sort of price this one opens up, the RP tissue says 9/2 the exchanges have been sitting around 10.5/11.5 I'd be very happy to have a play anywhere above the mean line there. Won his bumper on his only visit to the track, and hasn't done a vast amount wrong hurdling without managing to break his maiden, looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut and worth a play.

COOLDINE 425 KILLARNEY

If he can find even most of the ability he had in the last few years, he will win this. He has been pretty below par of late though. The trainer has persevered though and this looks a more suitable task than the cross country race he tried at lto. 7/1 is too big a price for a horse that has rubbed shoulders with the best, he beat Denman in April 2010. Zaarito is a decent horse, but he has found it difficult to win since Novice company so there is zero value backing him at almost even money.

ISLAND PEAK 455 KILLARNEY

This one comes here in good form, finally getting his head in front last time after beginning to develop a reputation for not putting it in at the end, i'd suggest this is the time to catch him as his previous runs suggest there is a fair bit of ability in there. This will be a tougher ask than last time, but I have him clear on my ratings and hoping for a big run. He is reunited with last times winning jockey also.

Now some flat from the Emerald Isle.

FAMOUS NAME 245 LEOPARDSTOWN

I'm not really sure what I have to write here, this is your banker of the day, if this one is beaten I will post a £10 betting voucher to the first person who tweets me @GSPCECOYS and calls me out on it. At 2/7 it's not a working mans price, so you have 2 options, either add him to every selection you back for a double, essentially adding a 28% bonus. Or play the forecast, on my ratings i have Barack very slightly second best.

REMEMBER ALEXANDER 315 LEOPARDSTOWN

This is a very tough race to call, I have Coral Wave, Remember Alexander and Yellow Rosebud almost identical, with Princess Sinead, Rubina and Alla Speranza very very close in behind. I've made an attempt on the value and sided with Jessica Harrington's filly, RA, I used the other as my TEAMNAP, but it's small stakes only, I just think she is the one i'd rather back at the prices and can see her making the 3 at least.

LIGHT HEAVY 345 LEOPARDSTOWN

I think this one will be a big player in whichever Derby he goes for, English or Irish, or both. The form of his Ballysax win took a bit of a hit on paper when 2 rivals disappointed at Chester this week, although realistically that form needs to be taken with a pinch of salt given the ground. He gets a weight allowance from Group 1 winner Wrote and is seriously less exposed.

STRANDFIELD LADY 415 LEOPARDSTOWN

The outsider of the six, he loves it here, 5/7 of his career wins have come here, the other two at Dundalk. Slipping to a very considerate mark, has won here off 80. I expect a decent effort for my money today, maybe a place, maybe even a win.

TIGER AT HEART 515 LEOPARDSTOWN

I think Jim Bolgers charge can make the frame if he gets the trip, he has had a couple of looks at a racecourse now and should come on for that. The only issue is the stamina down the Dam line doesn't really exist. John Oxx's Allowed the other big runner.

My picks for Longchamp.

130 MASTERSTROKE
240 BEAUTY PARLOUR
310 FURNERS GREEN
415 WIZZ KID

FOOTBALL

Well it could well be a minefield today. I'll give my bests.

Best win : WIGAN to beat Wolves (widely 8/13)
Best Lay : ARSENAL at 1.71
Best BTTS : Swansea v Liverpool (4/6 Blue Square)
Best Over 2.5 : Chelsea v Blackburn (4/9 BetVictor)

Good Luck whatever you play today, and Happy Punting.

P.s My TREBLE is

Famous Name, Light Heavy and Island Peak.

No comments:

Post a Comment