Welcome to the second installment of the Cheltenham preview. This day last year was a winner for me as Teaforthree was one of my bankers for the festival. I think the missus landed Champagne Fever at 16's in the bumper too, because he had pink silks! Anyway lets take a look at the races.
JOHN OAKSEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
A 4 mile steeplechase for Amateur jockeys. 7 and 8 year old horses have had the best of the results. A few more intriguing stats, 8 of the last 10 winners ran in a novice chase prior to this race, 6 of the last 10 had placed form at the track, and 8 of last 10 winners were 6/1 or shorter on previous start. This is all relatively easy information to find out, using the main sites. It's a pretty tough call at the moment though, nothing truly stands out although Alan King has taken to book top amateur Nico de Boinville aboard GODSMEJUDGE, Rebecca Curtis won this last year and she has BENHEIR still in at this stage with the services of the very talented Patrick Corbett to call on. Whatever Patrick Mullins climbs on for Willie has to have a chance. I won't be betting this race until the day, but look at the trends intitially and then any jockeys you recognise and you should be able to narrow down a tricky field.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICE HURDLE
There's one in this that confuses me a little, I'll get to that. Stats. The last 10 winners have all been aged either 5 or 6. This isn't the best race for favourites, a lot come here under a bit of hype, truth be told. A better stat is that 7 of the last 10 winners ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out. And the longest running stat is that only 1 horse since 1982 has won this race having finished 3rd or worse last time out. At the top of the market PONT ALEXANDRE is the big Irish hope, and it's easy to see why, but as I've said before this race has had it's fair share of hype and it's likely the price will be relatively untrue. THE NEW ONE will be popular too but I'd be a little wary and keep an eye on the form of any runners from the Twiston Davies yard before having a bet. TAQUIN DE SEUIL has some solid form in the book too. But I like the next 3. Mouse Morris won this in 2011 and he saddles RULE THE WORLD, a very progressive individual who has come on from the only blip in his copybook. PUFFIN BILLY hasn't been suited by small fields and heavy ground last twice and should be able to operate to his best here on Wednesday. Finally CHATTERBOX, this horse seems to be going along almost unnoticed. It's odd. This looks to be the target, he's beaten My Tent or Yours and Lac Fontana who both continue to be subject to hype. I'm talking myself into a bet on this one before you all steam in and steal the price. :-)
There has been a few days break in between writing and the better ground I was hoping for may well not arise now, I shan't change what has gone before but from here on in will not be anticipating it.
RSA CHASE
Form coming into the race is a must for this event, in the last 10 runnings, all winners finished 1st or 2nd lto, and all had won in current season. 8 of the last 10 winners was aged 7, and 9 of the last 10 Irish Bred. 3 of the last 4 winners contested the Moriarty Novice Chase, this year won by BOSTON BOB. The best official rating coming in is UNIONISTE, and Ruby Walsh has declared his hand jocked up for this one early ahead of the Mullins contingent. David Pipe's GOULANES fits the trends quite nicely, and is now the stable choice with Dynaste headed elsewhere. What he's done hasn't been breathtaking but he comes in on great form and seems to find what he needs. This is a step up but he should relish a real slog.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Day 2's headline act is "The Black Aeroplane" SPRINTER SACRE. I don't know how much worth there is looking at trends here. The main one is that this race doesn't really throw up shocks. In 62 runnings there has only been one winner priced higher than 12/1! There isn't a major amount of age bias, it's just a case that these are the best horses about under these conditions. Last year I questioned whether SPRINTER SACRE would be able to do it off the bridle and the truth was he didn't need to, he jumped his Arkle rivals into the ground and I'd expect much the same here. Voy Por Ustedes, Big Zeb, Sizing Europe all won this having won the Arkle the previous year and I don't see why this year should be different. Betting without the favourite. You'll just have to see what lines up I guess.
CORAL CUP
One for the real analysts to get there teeth into. A highly competitive hurdle over 2m5f. I had Carlito Brigante for this 2 years ago. Which was nice. There aren't many clear trends in this race, I guess due to the real competitive nature of the handicap. Form isn't a massive necessary, last years winner had season figures of 9090. A strange one though is that only one winner of the Coral Cup had won at Cheltenham previously. The most recently prominent stat is that 9 of the last 10 runners had been off the track for over 30 days, so anything that's been chucked out to get a mark to steal a spot in the race has probably done little more than get his owners a nice day out. 6 of the last 7 winners have gone off between 10-16/1, and only 1 of last 10 was bigger than 16/1. So that's a good place to look really. Where I've used these stats to filter the race I'm left with 9 runners. The only one I've got left that appears this is definitely the target (I might be wrong) is Nigel Twiston Davies' MASTER OF THE SEA, with son Sam declared to ride. He comes into the race very progressive and the slog shouldn't prove an issue as he has enjoyed the winter ground.
FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE
With only 8 runnings to go on there are two stats that stand out. 7 winners all did not win their first 2 starts over hurdles, and again that 7 of the winners had raced within 25 days prior to this race. It's a very tricky race to call. Which is shown that 2 winners have come in at 40/1. This one I'll leave until the day to make a decision. Another thing to consider is that fillies have shown up well in previous years, winning 4 of the 8 runnings. Good Luck.
THE CHAMPION BUMPER
Irish Trainers have a solid record in this, at a guess I'd put that down to field sizes in Irish bumpers compared to some over here. There has only been 1 4yo winner since 1996, that was Cue Card 3 years ago. Other than that 5/6 yo very much hold sway. Cue Card again a trend basher is the only horse to win having not won previous start. 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won a bumper of 13 or more runners. Which I guess accentuates my earlier point regarding the English and Irish trained horses. 2 I'm thinking fit the profie right now, both relatively near the top of the market are UNION DUES and GOLANTILLA.
I hope this helps you in some way to make your selections. My bets as always will be posted on the morning each day. Hopefully I can get day 3 sorted and up later tonight.
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