Thursday 14 March 2013

Thursday 14-3-13

Apologies that no betting guide has been completed for today or tomorrow. I haven't really had the time unfortunately. I'll give brief reasoning for my Cheltenham bets today with a couple dark horses to look at, My main bet will be the one in capitals. For me, Cheltenham this year has been frustrating so far. That could all change by one horse winning tomorrow, but we'll get there tomorrow, hopefully I can build up more stake to throw at it.

CHELTENHAM

130 JEWSON NOVICES CHASE

I'm a big fan of CAPTAIN CONAN and that is where my money is lying today. The Captain was a decent hurdler who has become a very nice chaser, he's unbeaten this season and showed last time that he's capable of getting the job done in a scrap, when it's against him. Dynaste will have his followers, but he's too short for me, Aupcharlie as well, he is a much better chaser than he was a hurdler but I think he wants further than this. A couple at bigger prices DESERT CRY from Donald McCain is taking a big step up in class but he's progressive so we've no idea how good he is, and may prefer a bit of cut, which he didn't get last time. THIRD INTENTION, I think the Tizzard's are going to have a good day today, this one really made Capatain Conan work for the win last time and could very well put himself in there with the big guns, at odds of 18/1-20/1 it's got to be worth a pound of any each way players money.

205 PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP

This is a culmination of a little series, the qualifying for the final is a bit loose, I think you only have to be declared for one of the 50odd qualifiers to have a chance of a run here, which in my eyes sort of nullifies the point, anyway BALLYBOUGH PAT is my selection for the excellent Anthony Honeyball. He hit the last when 2nd to Fair Along in a Newbury series qualifier, before coming third to one of yesterdays leading Neptune contenders. His mark looks fair, I've a lot of time for jockey Nick Schofield so I'm in. AMERICAN TRILOGY is just 1lb higher than when winning the County Hurdle here all them years ago, with a useful removal of 5lb from the talented Harry Derham he is certainly well treated if he's at his best today. And the other "american" AMERICAN SPIN, has found his way back more or less to his last winning mark, 3 starts ago, he's struggle against this sort of level to date but who knows not he's been given a chance by the handicapper.

240 RYANAIR CHASE

The Neptune was mouth-watering and I think this rival's it. Micheal O'Leary will be loving it, and naturally his horse First Lieutenant is the market leader. I like the horse, he likes the course, I'll not put you off betting him if you fancy him, but I'm going elsewhere. CUE CARD, this one will go on and try to win this from the front,  he's a talent, only one horse has gotten closer to Sprinter Sacre over fences (I'll tell you who that is tomorrow if you a)don't know or b)can't be arsed to look) He might have a challenge for the lead here, Champion Court likes to lead at times, but if Cue Card leads and jumps well I think he gives himself the best chance of winning. GHIZAO for the monster each way players isn't without a chance, Ruby on his back puts him up there really and he's gotten within 2 lengths of a Champion Chase winner in the past so if things don't go to plan then he could mop up the smaller money. MENORAH, the enigma that is Menorah, he needs a true pace or his jumping gets well anmd truly found out. I think with the stayers in here he should get it, he's certainly good enough to make the frame and you can get 8/1 for your money which is probably about the shortest I offer up an each way bet so he's just about a value chance for me.

320 WORLD HURDLE

Trends show that 70% of the winners over the last decade have been called Inglis Drever or Big Bucks :-), it's a crying shame the big fella isn't able to take his chance here today. His owner has hinted that he will be trained to solely run in this race next year, so watch this space, we might get a tasty price about his swansong. Listen, nothing in here is of the class of those two horses, to bve fair very little has been hence their respective dominance. One horses that got pretty close to BB was Grand Crus but unfortunately his chance, and my AP money, went by the wayside with a "less than 110% scope" which sounds a little ominous to me. I'm mostly just moaning through my wallet though, and the horses' wellbeings are truly my main concern. So where do we go with our money? It's a toughy. Oscar Whisky won't win, ask me again in 3 weeks time when he's over half a mile shorter at Aintree and I'll tell you he's the banker of the few days. Reve De Sivola has done little wrong, in fact he's done very much right, he's by no means as dependant on mucky ground as some suggest but the fact remains that his best performances as a chaser have come on it. I'm looking at SMAD PLACE, a progressive sort last year and we've not seen the best of him this. Wayne Hutchinson will be on a high after yesterday and this festival is really his chance to shine and confirm that he is an excellent horseman. There's double figure prices dotted about for this, which is daft really. GET ME OUT OF HERE is a habitual Festival runner up. I've seen him put up by a few judges, will he get the trip? There's only one way to find out! WONDERFUL CHARM. This is the horse that Nicholls/Walsh have chosen to take to war in the absence of their superstar. Looked mighty impressive on British debut when readily landing a grade 2 novice over 2 and half miles. This is an extra half mile sure but nothing that day suggested it would be too much. He could also get a solid form boost earlier, hopefully, from Ballybough Pat. Ladbrokes this morning are taking on Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola and don't want to know Solwhit and Wonderful Charm so that's a little pointer too.

400 BYRNE GROUP PLATE

A grade 3 chase over the Ryanair trip. Ballynagour appears to be this year "Pipe Handicap Plot", but I'm going to put this out here, David Pipe isn't in the same league as his father. I mean no offence, I think David is clearly a very good trainer, certainly in the top 10-20 but his father was top 3 in his time and a true master. The Pipe stable hasn't had much of a festival and I feel could be the layers dream with 2 favourites today. THEATRE GUIDE for me here. I think this one is chucked in. There are plenty formclues to pass earlier in the day. This horse on chase debut destroyed Hinterland by 11 lengths, ran into Dynaste on next 2 starts and wasn't able to show his best but on most recent start he was coming all out to beat Grandioso before taking a tumble at the last. A recreation of that run sees him very well handicapped here. HUNT BALL is one of these lovely stories that sport throws up, and I'm sure someone, somewhere will capture it in a film. Just 18 months ago this horse was rated 68 and winning a class 5 novice handicap chase at Folkestone, this year he was talked about as a gold cup horse. Connections finally made the choice to come here. He destroyed a useful field at last years festival, putting away 2 horses that have gone on and placed again this year. On his last start in the Argento he really looked like he was going to throw it down to Gold Cup contenders including a previous winner but the trip saw him off in the end. The mark looks right, the trip looks right. Yeah, I'd like to see HB back in the winners enclosure. CASEY TOP is my dark horse to watch. Hugh Taylor has put him up so his price has all but gone, although Billy Hill and 365 are holding onto 33's. He ran very well when attempting to make all here in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting. Last summer another bold show saw him second in the Galway Plate. Between those runs he struggled through the mud in the Kerry Guiness Chase. Expect a very bold run for your money from this one and a very live each way chance.

440 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP (Amateur Jockeys)

These races often prove fruitful to look at jockeys, look at yesterdays NH chase, Patrick Mullins, Nina Carberry, Nico De Boinville. Simples Today they ride Vesper Bell, Romanesco and Prince of Pirates respectively so I wouldn't put you off starting there. DEAL DONE is my first selection at a big price. Jockey Mr J J King has won races, and has 4 wins and 6 places from 29 rides for Dessie Hughes. This horse has been here, in November. A slightly longer trip saw to his chances as did a couple mistakes on the way round. He's been dropped a couple of pounds for that when a clear run over this trip might arguably have seen him go closer. RELAX for Venetia Williams takes my interest with Will Biddick, a top P2P jockey who Venetia likes to use for these events. He has ridden more time under rules here at Cheltenham than anywhere else. The horse struggled under a penalty last time out so that limits me to only offer up as a small bet, but certainly one on the up with a chance of a place. COURT BY SURPRISE is another place chance for me. I fear I know little about the jockey, and the trainer is on the cold list. I'm not inspiring you am I? This horse has however finished first 3 in half his starts, the jockeys 7lb claim puts him effectively 4lb lower than last winning mark and worth a little squeak at 40/1.

515 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

I'm not going to bother writing this up as there's a chance it may not go ahead again.
I've backed ANY CURRENCY

Other selections elsewhere

CELTIC CHARLIE 345 TOWCESTER
SPANISH WEDDING 530 MEYDAN
EXCELLENT PUCK 645 WOLVERHAMPTON
REASONS UNKNOWN 745 WOLVERHAMPTON

Good Luck and Happy Punting



No comments:

Post a Comment