230 JERSEY STAKES
An often tricky little Group 3 to negotiate, for 3yo over 7 furlongs, it's one of the bigger races for horses that are too slow for sprints but can't quite get a mile. The first pointer is that a good run in the King Charles is often a decent starting point. Obviously that brings in Roger Varian's ALJAMAAHEER, I'd worry for his chances if it got softer, but no rain between now and then and he'll likely be bang in the mix, with regards to experience, it's quite fractious with Group winners struggling under the penalty but Listed winners doing well, and one that jumps off the page, especially at Paddy Power's current quote of 20/1 is the Hannon/Hughes offering PRODUCER, The final indicator appears to be a push in the direction of Guineas runners, and with the 2nd and 3rd in the Irish 1000 and 2000 Guineas respectively ISHVANA and REPLY lining up, this should be a competitive renewal. SWISS SPIRIT is another currently in good heart, and Mickael Barzalona is reunited after giving him a peach of a ride last time out.
305 WINDSOR FOREST STAKES
Negatives = Never won at Group Level, Carrying a Group 1 penalty, and Godolphin? That's what I'm given from the ATR microsite, if you take them out along with prolific Ascot loser CHACHAMAIDEE and 0-4 for the trip BAREFOOT LADY it leaves you just 3 horses, BEATRICE AURORE, CLINICAL and JOVIALITY. Apparently one of the best form races is Epsom's Princess Elizabeth Stakes, which if you check was headed by CLINICAL from JOVIALITY.
345 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES
This race is quite easily trimmed down really, actual form in the book looks a must, coming into the race with an unplaced effort last time out is pretty much a no no, and runners who have never won a Group 1 previously have struggled, I have it down to 2, the odds on favourite SO YOU THINK, and the 9/1 shot who BEAT him in the World Cup over in Dubai PLANTEUR. I think my mind is pretty much made up where my money is going, and if you can't see the value then you'll have to wait until tomorrow. :-) If I were to have an each way bet then it would go on Godolphin's CITY STYLE, Ran competively in Dubai and is grossly overpriced.
425 ROYAL HUNT CUP
This is THE betting event of the day, the Heritage Handicap. Favourites have struggled, and the rank outsiders have also failed, horses aged 6 or older don't win, only 1 from 83 runners! and horses stepping down from Group or Listed company likewise just 1 winner from 54. Only 2 winners have come from the top 20% of the weight and no claiming jockey has ever won. Got all that? If so it's time to narrow down. Extreme High or Low draws go well, and I'm comfortable with a hand of 4, I've overidden a little and in no particular order I'll throw in MAN OF ACTION, EDINBURGH NIGHT, CAPTAIN BERTIE and CAI SHEN.
500 QUEEN MARY STAKES
A 27 runner 5f for 2yo fillies, sounds like fun? Well it's not as easy as it looks. Haha. Not recording a victory last time out is pretty much a no no, that cuts the field in half to 13, once or never raced fillies tend to struggle, so we're now down to 8. We can wipe out Madam Mojito with a breeding statistic relating to Sire index, I'll not bore you with that, essentially this race should prove too quick. Unbeaten fillies have done well and we should, if you've been listening, only have one of them left, JADANNA. The Marygate stakes at York is one of the better clues, we have the winner of that here, CIELING KITTY, Mick Channon and Richard Hannon have done well in this race, they saddle GRAPHIC GUEST and MISS DIVA respectively, slap between GG and MD is Bill Turner's progressive LADY PHILL, that one has to be in the reckoning, then we are just left with ALL FUR COAT and SHARAARAH, the latter being the weakest due to dropping in trip. if I were to throw 2 early darts at the paper I'd hope they landed in CIELING KITTY for the low numbers and GRAPHIC GUEST for the high ones, but we've 24 hours to go away and think about it.
535 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
The negative trends for this are horses rated below 90 and horses without a win this season. That leaves me with 4!!! One of which I was hoping would be in there. FALLS OF LORA, will be my pick. But we'll see if the positives point towards the others. Last time out winners do well which picks out ELECTRELANE of the 4, the winner generally comes from the top 6 in the market, no betting as yet so we will have to see, but I wouldn't discount FOL as is likely to be the Godolphin White Cap and set to be a bigger price than stablemate Pimpernel, who she dispatched comfortably in Dubai. Horses who waited until 3yo season to shake their maiden tag have done well, that points to Irish Raider DUNTLE, who ran well in a decent classic trial last time out. Finally the Nell Gwyn is a decent warmer for this and the winner ESENTEPE has to be respected, so there you have it, the 4 left in after the negatives, all have a positive to carry. To pays you money and takes your choice people.
Obviously this isn't failproof, and there are always exceptions to prove a rule, but hopefully again the winners will be on this blog and you can all make some moneys, my tips for Day 1 should be below this blog post, with my reasonings below that, and my tips for Wednesday will be up first thing.
ENJOY.
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