Well we've had some results in these, 1-2-3 in the Windsor Castle, and 5 out of 6 winners on Day 2. So lets hope I can continue helping you trim down the field.
230 NORFOLK STAKES
So Day 4 begins with a 5f 2yo dash. Although fortunately we've only the 12 to pick apart. The Negative trends are as follows, horses beaten last time out, and horses that have tried a longer trip. I'm left with 4, AHERN, CAY VERDE, JUBILEE BRIG and RECKLESS ABANDON, given that CV last two conquests were Dylanbaru and Hototo who finished 3rd and 1st in the Windsor Castle, I'd say he has the form in the book. Favourites have a good record in this race.
305 RIBBLESDALE STAKES
An open Group 2 event for fillies over a mile and half. This isn't generally much of a trends race, but it pays to side with late bloomers, fillies that competed black type races as 2yo tend to struggle. That has only narrowed me down to 9! Although 1 in by default i guess is the rank outsider CHELLA THRILLER, so we'll wipe that one off the board to leave 8. Over half of the winners of this have won at Group or Listed level. So wiping out the ones that haven't, we are down to 5. In no particular order we have Oaks contestors THE FUGUE, VOW and KAILANI, the Queens MOMENTARY, who put away Oaks runner up Shirocco Start on her last star, and Street Cry filly PRINCESS HIGHWAY, impressive winner of the Blue Wind stakes, a group 3, in Ireland. I'm going to throw my neck out and say the Group winners have it so between THE FUGUE and PRINCESS HIGHWAY, but wouldn't be shocked if the winner came elsewhere.
345 GOLD CUP
This is an absolute monster of a renewal, it truly has me excited. I can see 4 horses, just by looking at the card, who I would fully accept as a worthy winner without even any study. Lets see if they fulfil the trends ;-)
In 20 years, only 2 horses aged over 6 have won this, Drum Tap and the peerless Yeats, so that's a starting point, and a win this season is a positive, although that wipes 1 of mine out, I'm going to keep it in because that's how I roll! GULF OF NAPLES is still hanging in but I think this would ask a lot more from him than we have seen previously. If we look at the best Racing Post Ratings achieved we can see how close it is. FAME AND GLORY 121(This race last year 20f), OPINION POLL 120(Lonsdale Cup last year 16f), COLOUR VISION 122(Sagaro Stakes 16f), SADDLERS ROCK 122(Doncaster Cup 18f) Those races incidently are Group 1,2,3,2. So do you go with value or experience over trip, class. It cetainly is an intriguing renewal.
425 BRITANNIA STAKES
I'm hoping to do a bit better here than in the Hunt cup yesterday, although I say Cai Shen would have been much closer with some luck in running. Anyway. Only 1 of the last 10 runners have carried more than 8-13, there's your starting point. Also last time out winners have struggled, as have horses beaten over 5 lengths last time out. And horses dropping in trip from 1m1+. I'm left with 3! MISSISIPPI, LUCKY HENRY and DEMOCRETES. I'd favour the first 2 as the latter is stepping up from 6f-8f, based on the record of those drawn in the extremes, top 6, bottom 6 i'm going to use override to pull back William Haggas' progressive FAST OR FREE as well. So by all means go in 4 handed, I will.
500 TERCENTENARY STAKES
This is a group 3 for 3yo over a mile and a quarter, this is generally made up of progressive sorts, so we need to be looking for those contesting Group races, any unplaced lto outside Group company can be struck off. I have it narrowed to 6, I'm going to give you 3 of them. STARBOARD, he is certainly progressing, each run to date more impressive than the last. and very game in the finish last time. MUKHADRAM, this one has contested 2 very hot maidens. Winning the most recent pretty cosily. 2 in behind that day have gone on to win easily themselves and this race was pointed out as the target straightaway. The third one is more an each way shot based on the sheer overjerk of his price CAVALEIRO is not a 33/1 shot, he placed in a Group 3 Derby trial, the winner of which went on to finish second in the Derby, Cavaleiro himself was never really involved in the Derby and Hayley just bought him and herself home nicely. In reality he was 3 lengths off gaining a progressive mark for his Derby run and was probably very achievable if they had wanted to really shove the horse. A better run again today could have him right in the mix.
535 KING GEORGE V HANDINCAP
Won last year by Micheal Owen's Brown Panther. Only 1 winner has come into this from 35 days or more off the track, also horses outside the top 3 last time out have struggled to fire. The market will generally get this right or near to right, although Richard Fahey's Cosmic Sun broke the mould at 66/1 in 2009. Less exposed horses have done well with 8 from the last 10 winners coming here with 5 or less career runs. I'm left with 4. ANOMALY, PRUSSIAN, GHOST PROTOCOL and HANDSOME MAN. While the other 3 have been pretty hot and cold, ANOMALY has generally improved. I like.
FRIDAY
230 ALBANY STAKES
Only been going 10 years, but has produced some pretty decent winners, last years winner went on to land the Irish 1000 guineas. Much harder race to narrow down as positive trends outweigh the negative, in short horses do well if this is second start after a maiden win, Horses coming from Sandown have done well, and Mick Channon has won the race 3 times. Obviously then the starting point is Mick Channon's SANDREAMER , her Newmarket win has worked out nicely with the second and fourth both winning next time out. We have also Peter Chapple-Hyams AGENT ALLISON who won her Pontefract maiden hugely impressively. Another impressive demolition job earlier this month was handed out at Newmarket by the Gosden filly NEWFANGLED. I'd say those 3 would be my favourites, but plenty dangers.
305 KING EDWARD VII STAKES
A group 2 for the 3yo boys over a mile and half. This race historically certainly produces one to follow, looking down the whos-who, Saddlers Hall, Papal Bull, Mutafaweq, Campanologist, Monterosso, and last year Nathaniel. I'd suggest keeping the right side of the winner here. Horses without a win this season haven't done well. The best horse in the field is ASTROLOGY, it's interesting to know the tactics employed on Derby day, did he want to try to win from the front, or just blow the finish out of the others in the hope he got home, Initiator has to step up markedly to take this, huge ask for him. NOBLE MISSION is improving, I'd say arguably with Tom Quealley back on and the longer trip he has the beating now of Thought Worthy. Shantaram has serious character flaws, and Thomas Chipendale is slowly getting to his level, will get there by the end of the year. So for me it's between the O'Brien charge, and the prodigal little brother.
345 CORONATION STAKES
For this it pays to find a classic runner with black type form as a 2 year old. Another race that the punters typically get right. Well I hope they are better than me, I have it down to 9!!! well 8, i've taken Russeliana out, I think the Cherry Hinton figures are false, and that in truth that was a poor race. Ascot ourse form is pretty much a positive so SAMITAR and MAYBE both winners here have to be in the book. LAUGH OUT LOUD is still getting better all the time. ELUSIVE KATE, arguably the best 2yo filly at the back end of last year, potentially she went over the top at the breeders cup, but has to be in with a chance if she maintains that standard when fresh. Then you still have 1000 Guineas 1-2 HOMECOMING QUEEN and STARSCOPE, French Raider BUGIE D'AMOUR, who isn't coming over for a cup of tea and to see the queen, and Buick's chosen ride FALLEN FOR YOU. Good Luck with this one!
425 WOLFERTON HANDICAP STAKES
Horses having more than 2 runs this year and those unplaced last time out struggle in this. I have 4, RETRIEVE, MIJHAAR, CON ARTIST and the one that could potentially progress past the lot of them GATEWOOD. All of these have recieved RPR's in the 100's I just think that GATEWOOD is on the upgrade where the other 3 have reached their level. We'll have to see what the betting says on the day I reckon.
500 QUEENS VASE
A 2 mile group 3 for 3 year olds. The breeding is pivotal, if the Sire Index is less than 10f you have no chance. So those by Acclamation, Singspiel and Avonbridge may as well stay home. Horses that have remained unraced until 3yo season have done better than those that raced as 2yo. MINIMISE RISK would be my favourite here, but don't write off ED DE GAS.
535 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES
Only the 32 runners over 7 furlongs here. Nothing to worry about!!! I can narrow to 17 by removing horses that haven't acted on either Ground, Distance or Course, by that I'm going by 3 or more runs without a win. Generally we need to look at extreme drawn horses, high numbers or low numbers, for 32 runners id say just wipe out anything between 10-20. I have 11 left. So we need to look at the positives, 7f specialists and Ascot course form are pretty solid yardsticks. ADVANCED, CASTLES IN THE AIR and NOBLE CITIZEN all have Course and Distance wins. DUCAL will have to be respected if he gets in, Amy Weavers TARIQ TOO is certainly proving himself game for the fight, as is Ruth Carr's IMPERIAL DJAY. SPECTACLE DE MARS, RAKAAN and HAAMAAT are the others i still have uncrossed.
Good Luck in whatever you choose, I only hope I can be of help.
Thanks for giving tips .
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