Saturday 23rd July 430pm, all eyes turn to Ascot and a monster renewal. 2 Royal Ascot winners, a Derby winner, a grand old lady, and a horse who took a gap year to fulfil his 2yo potential. plus a couple more. We'll have a look through, I shall not divulge my bet until Saturday as usual, I'm just going to throw a few pointers at you to help you out.
DEBUSSY - Course form 077, Distance form 3805, Form on ground softer than good 13
Trainer - Mahmood Al Zarooni / Jockey - Ahmed Atjebi
This looks to be here as a pacemaker for the stable first string, stranger things have happened than a Godolphin 2nd string overturning the 1st string and the ground prediction at present would give him half a chance a best. He is not here to win the race so don't waste your cash.
REWILDING - Course form 1, Distance form 311, Form on ground softer than good 22
Trainer - Mahmood Al Zarooni / Jockey - Frankie Dettori
3rd to Workforce in the Derby last year but bounced back by winning the Voltigeur stakes 2 months later. Found the trip too far in the Leger, this year he is unbeaten having landed the Sheema classic in Dubai before causing the upset of the Royal meeting when overturning the tank that is So You Think. SYT didn't last out this trip and we know Workforce will so the match ups between the 3 are tricky to use as a formguide. This horse has the potential to come in under the radar again as at present all the talk is about Workforce and St Nick. I'd give this a massive chance and you could do worse.
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY - Course form N/A, Distance form 1, Form on ground softer than good 113
Trainer - Aidan O'Brien / Jockey - TBC
I think he will need to continue his progression to take this. he won nicely when staying on to beat Midday over this trip at Epsom, although Mr Quealley can be accused of sending the mare too early. That may have been a group 1 but this is a much stronger event. Midday is famous for idling in front so could be tricky how much you can take from that win, has a huge chance if continued rate of progression is consistent.
WORKFORCE - Course Form 5, Distance Form 151, Form on ground softer than good 11
Trainer - Sir Micheal Stoute / Jockey Ryan Moore
Only real blip in career came in this event last year when stablemate Harbinger destroyed the field with pace and set a new course record. Came back to land the Arc impressively. First run this year saw him run down Poet to land the Brigadier Gerard. Tried to run the finish out of SYT in the Eclipse but the distance just suited the tank better. Workforce is a class horse. Arguably the best in this race. If he is on his day, the race runs right and the correct decisions made then he wins.
MIDDAY - Course form N/A, Distance Form 23112, Form on ground softer than good 411
Trainer - Sir Henry Cecil / Jockey TBC
Sir Henry's wonder mare, has she gone? turned over by St Nick at Epsom, then left behind by Misty for me at the Curragh. I have one issue here, I love this filly she has made me money in the past, although she races out of a different yard Owner/racing manager connections are identical to workforce. If she is here by merit and not as a pacemaker then surely Tom Quealley would already be confirmed as the jockey? If there was 1 extra and Quealley was riding I'd have a go Each way as she is a gutsy little lady but I fear she is coming towards the end of her hayday and will be used to rival Debussy for the pace.
NATHANIEL - Course form 1, Distance form 121, Form on ground softer than good 21
Trainer - John Gosden / Jockey - William Buick
This one is the undoubted dark horse of the race. His carrer has been glittering really, It goes like this : Newmarket 1m, 2nd half length to Frankel, Doncaster 1m, 2nd shd to Picture Editor, Haydock 1m4 1st 2l to Madrasa, Chester(Group3) 1m4 2nd hd to Treasure Beach, Ascot(Group2) 1m4 1st 5l to Fiorente.
He will be happy with any rain between now and Saturday. The owners are not going to pay £75,000 to supplement him at the last minute if they don't think he has a chance. He is a horse rapidly on the up he may find 1 or 2 too good here but will in no way be disgraced.
SEVILLE - Course form N/A, Distance form 022, Form on ground softer than good 212
Trainer - Aidan O'Brien / Jockey - TBC
This one, like Nathaniel takes advantage of the 3yo weight allowance, Seville was unlucky last time out in the Grand Prix de Paris when collared by Andre Fabre's Meandre who finished like the TGV. I don't think Aidan will have much interest in taking on the pace here and it looks as though Seville comes over on merit. He is improving with every run this year and has a big win in him soon, I wouldn't write him off at a big price but another whose E/w chances are limited by the lack of an 8th runner.
Hope this has helped a little, it's probably confused a little, I know I'm less convinced as to who I'm backing after writing it. Good luck whoever you chose, I just hope it's a fantastic race.
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