Thursday 7th July - Newmarket July Festival Day 1

I've had a look at the full card at Newmarket, I was asked for some tips and had a look, now I guess I have to put my money where my mouth is! So I will give you my take on the card at HQ before handing out my 3 best bets and we have 1 further selection. I am treating all Newmarket races as 1pt selections.

NEWMARKET
120 Crimson Knight is a C&D winner but this is a massive step up in class, Hurrican Higgins has shown me nothing to suggest he is a group race horse. Zain Al Boldan is an interesting one as she can take a bit of weight off the boys, but I still feel she is outclassed here. Solar Sky looks like he could do with further, although he has won over shorter, I don't really like Tom Quealley so I can't back it, however he does have a terrific chance, Masked Marvel also enters my thoughts, 8th in the Derby although a Royal Ascot winner and a runner up in the Irish Derby have both come from behind him that day. This is certainly very winable for Masked Marvel but I have him in my Tote Tentofollow for the season so I get my rewards if he wins. My money, and only one unit of my money, will be having a little tickle on CENSUS. Richard Hannons colt looks to be a very progressive type, against the other two with are regressing for this, a game second to Brown Panther at Royal Ascot and both runners that have come out of that race have put in much improved performances. Ryan Moore takes the ride and hopefully we can get off to a flyer.

150 It's between 2 here, Roman Soldier, 2nd to Power in the Coventry, and FREDERICK ENGELS, winner of the Windsor Castle. I'm siding with the selection as he is a very progressive type and won his Royal Ascot race easily, The favorite came from a good draw and was run down by a horse that found trouble every furlong. I just think Frederick will have a bit more about him and Moore might get a little antsy on Roman Soldier and perhaps send him on too soon. WINNER 7/4

225 MALTHOUSE put in a huge effort over C&D 12 Days ago when finishing, a well beaten, second. This is a much weaker event than the Tattersalls Million and with the red hot Silvester De Sousa in the saddle, Mark Johnstons gelding should defy top weight and land a big price. A big each way shout also.

300 This was the race that gave me the biggest headache. All of these have good form if a little inconsistent. On bare reading Redwood's second to Rewilding in Dubai makes him a fair favorite, but he hasn't been seen for 5 months and there is no evidence as to how he will react to the time off. I'm siding with CAMPANOLOGIST given the record of Mickael Barzalona in Godolphin blue at Newmarket. A big enough price to go each way, he has done most of his winning in Europe but he does know how to win and this is a big chance.

335 Again another race with multiple winning chances. Burwaaz looks a decent sort but not a huge fan of the jockey, although the smaller field will negate my negatives towards him. Harbour watch looked a very good winner but it will be interesting to see if he handles the quicker ground. I'm sticking to my tested formula from the race before. Mickael Barzalona+Godolphin Blue+Newmarket=winner. CITIZENS CHARTER

405 I should be going for a royal blue treble and taking Bridgefield here but I don't think the horse has a chance. It's between the regressing Fury and the impressive CAI SHEN. I would have actually preferred Cai Shen to run in the 225 as the trip would suit better. But he does a fantastic turn of foot when asked. He came from absolutely miles back to finish second to Sagramor at RA and in a smaller field I think he has the turn of foot to hurt these. Fury, in my opinion, isn't as good a 3 year old as he was a 2 year old. I think the Guineas run was flattering as it was a false race, I've said before most had given up by halfway. Then a disappointing second in a listed event next time out. I think Fury backers could be in for more disappointment today and he is my "Lay of the Day".

440 See below.

NAP WILLIAMS WAY 630 Doncaster
Although all of his winning has come over shorter, he is 5lb lower than last winning mark, and he is on favourable terms with most of these. He is overpriced in my opinion and a big shout of a place at least against a tissue of 12/1, currently trading on Betfair at 16.5.

NB BOSUN BREEZE 915 Doncaster
With the jockeys 5lb claim he is effectively 1lb lower than last winning mark in this grade, he has been running in better events to no real avail. He is on favourable terms with 6 of his 8 rivals, nothing to read into with the other 2, should well be anywhere between 4/1 and 6/1 come racetime.

TREBLE LA FORTUNATA 440 Newmarket
He has run big races in higher grade than this, and seems to prefer being at the bottom of the weight in a better race, than the top of the weight in a worse race. I'm happy to take on Apace as I don't think Sir Micheal Stoute has quite refound his mojo yet, despite finally jumping off the cold trainers board. I think the selection is a fair price for win or each way players.

OTHERS
HAWAANA 620 EPSOM WINNER 4/1

Have a great day, good luck and Happy Punting.

Profit yesterday +15 points, Profit for July +87 points.
Profit is calculated as follows 5pt win NAP, 3pt win NB, 2pt win T, 1pt E/w treble, 1pt win any other.
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