Thursday 2 June 2011

Friday 3rd June

It's OAKS day people. This year both Epsom classics look to be absolute crackers as they are both hugely open. Going to have a little chat about my treble for today and then have a look at the fillies lining up for the big prize. Then after that I'll give the rest of my selections with a little reason for each, just cos I'm a nice Guy!

NAP : Motivado 425 Musselburgh - Not too much to say about this one, as a 2 year old he looked to be crying out for a trip and first time out this year he came on strong over a mile to take his first handicap. Up 6 pounds for that although still 3lb ahead of the handicapper. Sir Mark Prescott does well getting horses to follow up and I can't see any reason why he won't here. Szabo's Destiny is probably the only progressive danger but will hit the front early and try to make the running, and that will play into the hands of a staying express like Motivado.

NB : Viscount Nelson 705 Curragh - Although his last win came in August 2009 it was down in this company where he hasn't been seen since. Slightly disappointing at Sandown in April but that was after nearly 300 days off and he will surely feel better for the run. He has decent group form dotted along the way, 3rd in the Coral-Eclipse, 3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas and 2nd in Donny's Champagne Stakes.

TREBLE : Midday 245 Epsom - 5 runners but you can scribble out Indian Days and Clowance, the former was 4 lengths behind Dandino lto and showed nothing to suggest that he could reverse that at any time. Clowance looked a promising filly early doors but has struggled to make an impression on top end racing in England. She has been sent abroad on a number of occassions for the prize money. Dandino looks a hugely progressive sort but for me this is a tough race for him to win. St Nicholas Abbey? what are we going to get from the "wonderhorse!" Definately an improvement last time when winning the Ormonde Stakes, but that was a Group 3 and a weak one at that, does he have the ability to hand 3lb to Midday, in short NO. In my eyes Midday would win this giving the field 10lb and I think Dandino is the live threat to follow her home. She showed her tenacity when landing the Middleton stakes despite a brilliant ride from Frankie on Saajhah. Henry Cecil said afterwards she was a little rusty. Now all I can hope is that she is still a little rusty today or the others may need binoculars to see her.

THE OAKS :
This is a hugely open race. Picking it apart will be tough. I'm not even sure where to start with regards to taking some out. Perhaps at the top?
Beatrice Aurore - I like this horse, I napped her last time out and she won, that's always going to get in my good books, she is owned by the fella from Abba so cue a chorus of the Winner takes it all if she comes home, but I can't see it, I expect her to run a big race and enjoy the experience but think this is a big step up.
Blaise Chorus - Still a maiden and let's face it, a maiden isn't going to win a classic! put in a good run behing Wonder of Wonders in the Cheshire Oaks but this is a huge step up.
BLUE BUNTING - My selection, on the morning line on Sunday May 1st Frankie stated "she is an Oaks horse more than a Guineas, I will be very excited if she she has a big race today" well that afternoon Frankie sat aboard her, found the rail and stayed on like the Oriental Express. She only went and won the thing. She is the winner for me and I quite happily got on after Frankies advice that Sunday morning so won't bother jumping in today!
Dancing Rain - Only win came in a Div 2 Class 4 maiden, she is here for the numbers
Eirnin - Well done son, you picked me up a group 1 last month, how about a donkey for the Oaks, cheers dad! I bet there was a frosty reception when Aidan told "little" Joe he was riding this.
Fork Handles - Dr Koukash's horses are in wild form at the moment, his colours seem to be poping up at winning posts everywhere. Although the form of her biggest race to date has shown progression from all parties she was a long way behind Together(8 or so lengths) and she has been beaten by 2 in this race.
Havant - very poor in the 1000 Guineas, maybe she needed the run as she seemed to get it together late on that day but it was already far too late. Could be a live threat if the cobwebs are shaken off.
Izzi Top - cracking jockey booking but not good enough for these.
Misty for me - the obvious live danger, but she runs better in Ireland, If you go back to my blog on Irish 1000 guineas day I stuck her up as a danger because she was at home and she duely obliged. Has to find Epsom better than Newmarket although she is one that has the hideous winds to blame, they destroyed all the front runners that day. Definately the value in the race IF she travels.
Sirens Song - A progressive filly but not in this league
Why- Why indeed? I can't work out if this is a pacemaker or what, if so it is an insult to french wonderjock Mikkel Barzalona that he has been dumped on board. But Aidan O'Brien seems to just do what he likes so I'll just say this one can't win
Wonder of Wonders - Cracking run in the Cheshire Oaks, but this is a huge step up. The main man is on board so you can see where stable loyalties lie.Needs to progress to win
Zain Al Boldan - Won the Oaks trial at Lingfield very impressively, but I stated that weekend that if the winner of either trial goes on to win the respective classic i will quit betting horses. It was a very weak race but she came out looking good. Has to be respected given the margin of victory but nothing has come out of that race to suggest it was any stronger than I thought.

There you go, so for the oaks Blue Bunting, Misty for Me, and I'll chuck in Beatrice Aurore for third.

Others
EPSOM
140 Timepiece - Henry fancied her to give Midday a run in the Middleton, she didn't but should come on for it, and also the race played out tactically as Frankie jump the field and Midday had to chace him down. Best horse in the race.
210 Extraterrestrial - Big Handicap, Fahey check, Hanaghan check, horse has a chance check, the Katy Perry song with the same name came on the tele while i was reading check. All boxes ticked.
325 Resurge - Positive form against 8 out of 10 runners, other 2 hard to decipher which include Dhaamer who is fancied, but connections will be confident that this is the right race.
450 Utley - Been in my tips before and disappointed, gonna give another go. Hooray is a poor Fav for me meaning value in the race, Richard Hannons Casual Glimpse has to be respected down in class and also Chilworth Lad has shown that he is class horse. But i'm giving Utley another try, hopefully I will be happy today.
525 City Legend - I often look for a big each way shot in the lucky last, it very rarely comes off but regardless of your day you don't have to steam in. This one has a string of decent results dotted around his form, hasn't won for a while but at the 25's Boylesports are currently sticking up it doesn't need to win.

CATTERICK
300 Wicked Wilma
335 Excusez Moi
CURRAGH
810 Murura
DONCASTER
815 Babycakes
GOODWOOD
855 Poppy Seed
MUSSELBURGH
345 Lost in Paris

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