Thursday 9 June 2011

Thursday 9th June

Well another day, another dollar. Yesterday became the 4th profitable day in the last 6. Botham being a non runner in the 900 swung us from a half point loss to a half point profit! Current June total now sits at a profit of £7.71 to £1 level stake. As usual I'm heavy handed in the evening over the afternoon. And after being 1 from 1 at Yarmouth yesterday I'm going for just the 1 again today. Wouldn't mind a few bigguns today as we are steadily building an attack pot for the daily Royal Ascot Naps next week. Can't wait. 15 selections today start here.

NEWBURY
200 A good old fashioned maiden, the only declared runner with a run has been since withdrawn and so you have to look at yards that can get one ready first time. The first name that jumps in your head is Richard Hannon. He has 2 in the race. Obviously Richard Hughes will have been given first choice of rides and he chooses the favourite Moustache. However, Ryan Moore takes the "second string", and if Ryan Moore is happy to take a ride as second fiddle then it must be a decent horse. Breeding may suggest he wants a bit further but has the plum draw and with 4/1 available represents more value than the afore mentioned. I'll take on the favourite with stablemate GRAPHIC.

305 A tricky looking race on paper. Albaraka is reported to have been working very well at home and could go well if ready for this level. Gracefield is lightly tried but a big step up in class and trip may find her out. Poplin needs to at least reverse the form with Imperial Pippin, they met at Goodwood and the latter came home 1 and quarter lengths before. The winner that day was Beatrice Aurore (6th in Oaks). However last time we saw RUMH was a fillies trial over C&D. On the day he was beaten into 3rd by the winner and 3rd of the Oaks, Dancing Rain and Izzi Top. So where the race looks tricky at first glance, once we tear apart the form the selection looks far superior. Albaraka and Gracefield make appeal if stepping up well.

NOTTINGHAM
325 Jibaals win at Newmarket last month sets him up nicely for this but I'm going to take him on with hanicap debutant AJEEB. Will benefit from a more experienced jockey than previously as the horse seems to need to get involved a bit earlier. Looks as though he may want further in time but given a fair mark by the handicapper and should run a big race.

YARMOUTH
350 When I looked at this it was a 6 runner affair but Primo Lady has been pulled out since. Fortuneatly that one made no appeal whatsoever anyway. Eshoog has to hope there are no cobwebs and should go well if ready. But i think it's between Ming Meng and SAIRAAM. C&D winner albeit 18 months ago. Prefers to run in a straight line and looked unlucky not to end a losing run at Leicester last time out.

UTTOXETER
610 This looks like a 2 horse race to me. Morning Farewell and SPIRIT IS NEEDED(NAP). The aforementioned is stepping up in trip and although he stuck on last time out made no impression on the leader and may come up a bit short today. The selection ran 21f last time out and mistakes on the way round caused a bit of a falter into 3rd. This looks a bit easier than that event and if his jumping is right he will win this by any distance, the ability is there but the temperament maybe not always. Paddy Brennan takes the ride and that convinces me to jump in. I've Nap'd it because of the gulf in ability between him and his rivals and a positive rider booking.

640 This race threw up a contender for NAP/NB status but narrowily missed out due to the progression of a rival. SUN TZU looks the winner all day long but does have a 7lb penalty to contend with. See you Jack has come on very well could provide a challenge if he progresses further. On bare form the selection wins this any length you like and I'm not prepared to take him on with a what if.

740 Another tricky looking race but once you delve into the form it looks a bit more comfortable. Haoyunma could push the selection if making the step up in trip but I'm on the side of AJZAL. He beat the danger over 2miles at Towcester and I think the fact that he has won over this longer distance will negate the weight changes from the prior contest.

FONTWELL
630 Names in a hat for this one, I'm going to take the value on CLOSEST THING TO CRAZY. Connections will be hoping, like me, that this is an easier affair than some before, as it looks. If this was over the hurdles then the 4/6 and shorter quoted on Barizan would be great value but he looked a bit off on his chasing debut and I'm hoping my selection can push him all the way.

700 GREEN MINING(NB) was a consistent sort in Ireland and looks to have enough for back to back wins now with Tim Vaughan, I can't see anything here capable of winning the race without the selection in it let alone with. Richard Johnson just has to get the horse over the obstacles for a simple payday.

730 Lansdowne Princess has beaten ORIONS STAR, twice this year but weights are well and truly in the selections favour now. Trainer/Jockey won this race last year and therefore will know how the horse needs to be readied. Some generous 5/2 around and I expect favouritism to switch and maybe be shared by the off.

HAYDOCK
720 A very competitve sprint handicap and I'm siding with INGLEBY STAR. He has won off a higher mark than today in the past and has positive direct or indirect form against most of these. If I was to make a second guess it would be Taurus Twins.

750 Favourite Nahrain makes obvious appeal but nothing much has come from his maiden win as yet and I can't trust him and even money or odds-on. For value I'm going to make the selection BUZZ LAW. Ladbrokes and Totesport go 11/2 at the moment making decent each way value and just has a bit more to read into for my liking.

820 I'm going to take a stab at REGIMENTAL here, 2 disappointing runs so far this term but creeping back down to a winning mark, with the champion jockey on board and looking well weighted he could go well and a decent price. 11/1 365 and Stan James

LEOPARDSTOWN
655 Invincible Ash looks to be the winner of this hands down, Sing Softly fails to convince me on the quicker ground but I'm looking at a British raider for Clive Cox and Luke Morris. CAPERCAILLIE has convincingly beaten both of todays rivals that he has faced prior and on that has indirectly scored form against some others. A solid effort in a very strong race last time out which has thrown up winners in front and behind. Expect a big run and taking 16/1 off the bookies seems like daylight robbery to me.

855 Notable Graduate makes appeal with the manner of his victories but I'm again going to back value over speculation and go in with HAZIYNA. Johnny Murtagh takes the ride and the selection has won here in the past. Like the favourite is stepping up in class but a good win last time out makes him eyecatching and 13/2 looks pretty good value.

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